FanPost

The lie about the run differential

So imagine that you start the season winning the first game by 15-0 and then you lose the next 15 games by one run. That will say your W-L record is 1-15 but your run differential is exactly ZERO. Then, the media will make some comments like: "it is just bad run distribution" or "the team is not as bad as the record reflects". I disagree. I believe they have a great game every now and then plus the offense is weak in terms of coming from behind, or the bullpen needs improvement, or both... the latter might be the case.

Doing the Math

The Marlins' offense ranks in the middle of the pack in most categories: 14th in AVG, 16th in OBP, and 13th in OPS, Runs and HRs. If we take into account games with 6+ runs differential (the definition of an "open game", when a team can use a position player to pitch), the Marlins have a record of 8-4, outscoring their opponents by 37 runs. Not to mention that of those 12 games, 11 have been vs WAS, COL, ARI, SF and the Phillies, teams with below-average pitching. Moreover, in games in which any of the teams have scored 10+ runs, the Marlins have a 5-3 record with a run count of 80-56, that is 24 runs differential in just 8 games.

So the Marlins have played a total of 61 games as of 15/06, they have scored 276 runs total and have a run differential of +22. That means, the team is scoring 4.52 runs per game. But excluding those 8 games mentioned above, the Marlins would have scored 196 runs - and would have allowed 200 runs, BTW -, that divided in 53 games yields almost 3.7 runs/game. Out of 30 teams in the major leagues, only 3 of them score less than 3.7 runs per game: Tigers, A's and Pirates. We have that kind of offense with some unusual bursts.

So all this is to say that the Marlins' lineup scores a bunch of runs around once a week, but they still underperform in close games. So don't come to me saying the lineup is not so bad when they consistently fail performing in medium and high-leverage situations. Today the record is under .500 and to me, makes totally sense.

Oh my word, that bullpen...

Three games against the Phillies, three blown saves. In three games, FOUR times we where leading in the score board when the bullpen took over, THREE times the teams was winning or tying going to the bottom of the 8th inning and THREE times the bullpen blew it.

I think it is time to deal the surplus of right handed bats to get some proven bullpen pieces. I am sure there are teams interested in Cooper, Aguilar, Stallings and, in a lesser extent, Soler. I'm not listing Avi just because we won't get anything for him. Get a strikeout guy or two. Let Lewin play, Encarnación, Burdick and Bleday are close. LeBlanc deserves a look. Once healthy, I'm positive both Holloway and Meyer can help in the bullpen... The point is, do something. There is no trust left after the 7th inning.

Hans.