May 16-18: Nationals vs. Marlins Series Preview

After dropping two of three games against the Brewers over the weekend, the Miami Marlins will look to rebound against the Washington Nationals. Both teams are struggling as of late, holding a 3-7 record over their last 10 games. After this three-game series to start the week, the Marlins will have a day off before beginning a weekend series against the Braves.

I’ll cover the usual stuff in this series preview:

• Schedule, Watch, Listen
• Probable Pitchers
• Recent Lineups
• What To Watch For
• Poll: How Will This Series Play Out?

Schedule, Watch, Listen

Monday, May 16 at 6:40 pm

Tuesday, May 17 at 6:40 pm

Wednesday, May 18 at 6:40 pm

• TV broadcast for all 3 games: Bally Sports Florida
• Radio broadcast for all 3 games: 940 AM WINZ, WAQI 710

Grid View

• Aaron Sanchez, Nationals’ starting pitcher on Monday Photo by Scott Taetsch/USA TODAY Sports
• Sandy Alcantara, Marlins’ starting pitcher on Monday Photo by Matt Kartozian/USA TODAY Sports
• Joan Adon, Nationals’ starting pitcher on Tuesday Photo by Geoff Burke/USA TODAY Sports
• Cody Poteet, Marlins’ starting pitcher on Tuesday Photo by Dale Zanine/USA TODAY Sports
• Josiah Gray, Nationals’ starting pitcher on Wednesday Photo by Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports
• Pablo López, Marlins’ starting pitcher on Wednesday Photo by Sam Navarro/USA TODAY Sports

Probable Pitchers

Monday: RHP Aaron Sanchez vs. RHP Sandy Alcantara

• Sanchez: 7.58 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 12.2 K%, 48.1 HardContact% in 19.0 IP
• Alcantara: 2.74 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 21.6 K%, 22.9 HardContact% in 42.2 IP

Tuesday: RHP Joan Adon vs. TBA (likely RHP Cody Poteet)

• Adon: 7.03 ERA, 1,72 WHIP, 19.2 K%, 23.2 HardContact% in 32.0 IP
• Poteet: 0.55 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 22.2 K%, 27.0 HardContact% in 16.1 IP

Wednesday: RHP Josiah Gray vs. RHP Pablo López

• Gray: 4.34 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 24.8 K%, 26.4 HardContact% in 37.1 IP
• López: 1.05 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 28.4 K%, 27.1 HardContact% in 43.0 IP

Projected Lineups

Roster Resource / FanGraphs

Roster Resource / FanGraphs

What to watch for on...

Monday: The Sandy Alcantara we know and love.

• Alcantara’s last outing: 7.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 6 K.
• Sandy much better against the Diamondbacks last week. 10 of his 15 whiffs were on the changeup, a pitch he relied on heavily in the game. The Nationals are the worst team against the changeup, according to FanGraphs’ pitch-by-pitch run values.

Tuesday: Patience vs. Joan Adon.

• The Nationals’ young right-hander leads all pitchers with 23 walks allowed. Adon is also among the worst pitchers in a bunch of other categories including getting whiffs (15.9%, league average is 24.6%), chase rate (23.3%, league average: 30.0%), and barrel rate (14.7%, league average: 7.8%).
• Marlins hitters are drawing walks at a rate slightly below league average (8.5%, league average: 9.0%), but their leading walk-getter Jon Berti remains out of the lineup. They’re also chasing pitches out of the zone more often than most hitters (31.5%, league average: 27.8%). One of these—Adon or the Marlins hitters—have got to give.

Wednesday: Stirrup king Pablo López.

• In addition to having an 80-grade stirrup game, López’s 1.05 ERA is leading all qualified starting pitchers in the major leagues.
• Despite a career-best 11 strikeout game from the right-hander last Friday, the Marlins failed to overcome their dreaded offensive struggles to support him. It was the latest of eight losses this month that have come by one-run deficits. The Marlins can’t continue to waste precious gems from their starting pitchers.