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May 5-8: Marlins at Padres Series Preview

Even with Fernando Tatís Jr. sidelined, this may be the Marlins’ toughest matchup of the young 2022 season.

Sandy Alcantara #22 of the Miami Marlins pitches during the third inning of a baseball game against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images

In the midst of their worst losing streak of 2022, the Miami Marlins are embarking on their second west-coast road trip in as many months. It begins with an extra-long matchup against the San Diego Padres.

We’ll cover the usual stuff in this series preview:

  • Schedule, Watch, Listen
  • Probable Pitchers
  • Recent Lineups
  • What To Watch For
  • Poll: How Will This Series Play Out?

Schedule, Watch, Listen

Thursday, May 5 at 9:40 pm

Friday, May 6 at 9:40 pm

Saturday, May 7 at 8:40 pm

Sunday, May 8 at 4:10 pm

  • TV broadcast: Bally Sports Sun for Thursday’s game; Friday-Sunday on Bally Sports Florida (Paul Severino and J.P. Arencibia)
  • Radio broadcast for all 3 games: 940 AM WINZ, WAQI 710

Probable Pitchers

Thursday: LHP Jesús Luzardo vs. RHP Nick Martinez

  • Luzardo: 3.10 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 34.1 K%, 40.0 HardContact% in 20.1 IP
  • Martinez: 4.12 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, 20.7 K%, 39.3 HardContact% in 19.2 IP

Friday: RHP Sandy Alcantara vs. RHP Yu Darvish

  • Alcantara: 2.90 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 21.0 K%, 23.2 HardContact% in 31.0 IP
  • Darvish: 4.44 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 22.5 K%, 17.6 HardContact% in 26.1 IP

Saturday: RHP Pablo López vs. LHP Sean Manaea

  • López: 1.61 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 28.3 K%, 18.6 HardContact% in 28.0 IP
  • Manaea: 3.60 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 24.8 K%, 32.5 HardContact% in 30.0 IP

Sunday: LHP Trevor Rogers vs. RHP Joe Musgrove

  • Rogers: 6.14 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 18.6 K%, 27.9 HardContact% in 22.0 IP
  • Musgrove: 1.97 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 26.8 K%, 23.3 HardContact% in 32.0 IP

Projected Lineups

Marlins most recent lineup: Berti (3B), Aguilar (1B), Soler (LF), Cooper (DH), Anderson (RF), Chisholm Jr. (2B), Rojas (SS), De La Cruz (CF), Henry (C).
Marlins’ recent lineups.
Roster Resource / FanGraphs
Padres most recent lineup: Grisham (CF), Cronenworth (1B), Machado (3B), Profar (LF), Hosmer (DH), Kim (SS), Alfaro (C), Abrams (2B), Azocar (RF).
Padres’ recent lineups.
Roster Resource / FanGraphs

What to watch for on...

Thursday: Make-or-break pitch

  • Jesús Luzardo has relied more heavily on his slurve this season, yielding generally great results. He has tallied 20 of his 28 strikeouts on that pitch.
  • The Padres rank second among all MLB teams with a .308 weighted on-base average against breaking balls, according to Baseball Savant. Eric Hosmer (MLB-leading .663 wOBA) and Manny Machado (.526 wOBA) are especially dangerous.

Friday: Agui’s on-base streak

  • Jesús Aguilar has recovered from his slow start to the year by going on a career-best 18-game on-base streak. He even showed some extra-base power on Wednesday as he continues to solidify himself as the regular No. 2 hitter in the Marlins’ lineup.
  • Assuming that Aguilar reaches safely in the series opener, he will have an opportunity to match Trea Turner (20 games) for the longest streak of the 2022 season.

Saturday: El Oso revenge game?

Fish Stripes original GIF
  • Jorge Alfaro was the Marlins’ primary catcher from 2019-2021, slashing .252/.298/.386 (84 wRC+) with 25 home runs in 253 games. They traded him to the Padres right before the MLB lockout began.
  • Alfaro has been behind the plate for every one of Sean Manaea’s starts this season, so it’s a good bet that he will be in the lineup on Saturday night. How will he perform against the club that essentially salary-dumped him over the winter?

Sunday: Big test for Trevor Rogers

  • Although Rogers has been effective in a couple of his 2022 outings, he doesn’t resemble his old All-Star self. The tall lefty’s strikeout rate is far below the league average and he is struggling to maintain his fastball velocity deep into starts.
  • This will be the Padres’ first time facing Rogers, so perhaps that lack of familiarity will be an advantage for him.

Poll

May 5-8: How will this series play out?

This poll is closed

  • 4%
    Marlins sweep, 4-0
    (1 vote)
  • 4%
    Marlins win, 3-1
    (1 vote)
  • 44%
    Tie, 2 wins apiece
    (11 votes)
  • 44%
    Padres win, 3-1
    (11 votes)
  • 4%
    Padres sweep, 4-0
    (1 vote)
25 votes total Vote Now