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Analyzing this month’s SimMarlins market movement on SimBull

Are you buying or selling the 33-45 Miami Marlins?

Marlins manager Don Mattingly chats with broadcaster Paul Severino during batting practice at LoanDepot Park Photo by Danis Sosa/Fish Stripes

We once again wrap up the month by checking in on the SimMarlins stock on SimBull.

How has the SimMLB market reacted to the 2021 Miami Marlins season thus far? Are there still opportunities to profit off the Fish moving forward? Let’s take a look.

Last Month’s Price: $29.01

Current Price: $28.83

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SimMarlins market movement over the last 30 days
SimMarlins market movement over the last 30 days

The share price spiked by 11% during the final days of May, plopped back down in the midst of an eight-game losing streak and has gradually dipped lower since then.

The Marlins continue to be an extremely frustrating team. They’re the only one in the majors that’s both significantly below the .500 mark and far above zero in terms of run differential. On Tuesday, Miami lost to the Phillies, 4-3. It was a familiar feeling for a club that owns a 6-17 record in one-run games this year.

None of the mainstream MLB projection systems are giving the Marlins better than a 1% chance of returning to the postseason. However, general manager Kim Ng refuses to wave the white flag with more than half the schedule still remaining.

Despite looking like a “selling” move at first glance, the just-completed four-player trade with the Blue Jays doesn’t necessarily weaken their 2021 chances. As Ng alluded to multiple times when addressing the media, Jesús Sánchez is getting the opportunity to cement himself as an everyday outfielder. He has the power-hitting potential to impact winning even more than the departed Corey Dickerson, who continues to recover from a left foot injury and wasn’t playing particularly well when healthy. Any of the “next man up” relievers should have greater strikeout ability than Adam Cimber. Joe Panik is a nice complement to an organization with poor infield depth.

That being said, the deal fails to move the needle in a positive direction. The Marlins need more firepower to help Starling Marte consistently carry the offensive load—his supporting cast has been too streaky and injury prone. Now, even Marte is slumping (0-for-his-last-19 entering play on Wednesday). Unless they take some of the Dickerson cash savings and use it to absorb the salary of a proven bat, I don’t anticipate a special second half from the Fish.

Tuesday’s trade was atypical of a Marlins front office that likes to gather as much information as possible before making decisions. If they ultimately trade Marte or major leaguers with even more market value (multiple years of club control remaining), it’ll happen on or around the July 30 deadline. The SimMarlins price should be even lower once all of the player movement is complete. Depending on what young talent Miami receives in those transactions and how rookies like Sánchez, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Trevor Rogers are progressing, that’s when you will want to consider stockpiling shares in anticipation of a 2022 playoff push.