Fish Stripes - Miami Marlins' Jacob Turner designated for assignmentCovering the Marlins every day in our own wayhttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/52814/Screen_Shot_2018-12-07_at_12.32.35_PM..png2014-08-15T23:08:57-04:00http://www.fishstripes.com/rss/stream/57417082014-08-15T23:08:57-04:002014-08-15T23:08:57-04:00Brad Hand vs. Jacob Turner<img src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/3VDfdqRAGlShpNe_hCyZhc8BaCY=/410x410/cdn.vox-cdn.com/fan_shot_images/339646/Hand_Turner1.png" />
<div class="source source-img"><p><p>Brad Hand is one year older than Turner too.</p></p></div>
https://www.fishstripes.com/2014/8/15/6012141/brad-hand-vs-jacob-turnerMichael Jong2014-08-14T12:30:03-04:002014-08-14T12:30:03-04:00A modest Jacob Turner comparison
<figure>
<img alt="This is the last time you see Jacob Turner on this website, I promise!" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/e02AqWqT1pXWL5GDgvPsrLalA7Y=/0x210:2856x2114/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/36932458/20140803_kkt_su8_024.jpg.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>This is the last time you see Jacob Turner on this website, I promise! | Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Miami Marlins traded Jacob Turner for essentially nothing last week. But has he been bad enough to be traded like that? Here's a modest comparison of him with some other pitchers with whom you may be familiar.</p> <p>Yes, this is another <span>Jacob Turner</span> article.</p>
<p>We all know the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.fishstripes.com/">Miami Marlins</a> <a href="http://www.fishstripes.com/2014/8/8/5983377/miami-marlins-trade-jacob-turner-chicago-cubs-for-minor-league-relievers">traded the embattled starter last week</a> to the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Chicago Cubs</a> for essentially nothing, a pair of non-prospect minor league relievers. The Fish's reason for releasing Turner was ridiculous, and Miami did not have to let go of a 23-year-old pitcher, even if the odds of him becoming a league average pitcher were relatively low. The low-upside move of keeping Turner around was always better than the no-upside move of essentially giving him to the Cubs.</p>
<p>But as we discussed slightly in yesterday's article about the <a href="http://www.fishstripes.com/2014/8/13/5997301/chicago-cubs-miami-marlins-organization-philosophy-pitching">Cubs and Marlins building teams in different fashions</a>, the Cubs went after Turner as his peripherals were at his career peak; Turner struck out more batters, walked fewer batters, and had a better fastball velocity this season than in any other year. So it leads me to wonder how the Marlins are analyzing their players. To emphasize that point, I offer you a modest anonymous player comparison. Names excluded, and actual ERA and FIP numbers taken out. Instead, I give you them in terms of ERA- and FIP-, numbers compared to the expected league average after park adjustment. A number greater than 100 represents a percentage worse than league average and vice versa. These numbers represent data from 2012 to 2014.</p>
<table border="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<th>Player</th> <th>IP</th> <th>K%</th> <th>BB%</th> <th>ERA-</th> <th>FIP-</th> <th>xFIP-</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Player 1</td>
<td>181 2/3</td>
<td>14.3</td>
<td>11.1</td>
<td>91</td>
<td>105</td>
<td>113</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Player 2</td>
<td>298 2/3</td>
<td>17.0</td>
<td>8.7</td>
<td>112</td>
<td>111</td>
<td>114</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Player 3</td>
<td>251 1/3</td>
<td>15.2</td>
<td>8.5</td>
<td>121</td>
<td>114</td>
<td>116</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>In looking at these numbers, what do you see? Player 1 has an atrocious strikeout-to-walk ratio, but his ERA was good in the last three years, and his FIP was better than the other two. However, when you correct for home runs by using fly ball percentage instead of actual homers allowed, his expected ERA by xFIP looks a lot more similar to the other two. Player 2 looks like the most obvious of the three in terms of skills; his ERA, FIP, and xFIP all match up nicely. Player 3 had worse luck with his ERA, but his FIP and xFIP are also comparable to the other two players, and in particular, his performance matches up very similarly to Player 2.</p>
<p>That is an important point in the comparison. Player 2 strikes out more batters, but Player 3 presumably does better on home runs. The home run thing is likely due to Player 3 getting more ground balls than Player 2. Overall, however, the two players have pitched very similarly over the last three years.</p>
<p>The takeaway point here is that, if we look at the most predictive information on this list, the numbers that best predict future run allowance, these pitchers do not look all that different. You may say Player 1 is the best of the three, and Player 3 is the worst of the three, but the difference is likely marginal, perhaps in the range of 0.1 to 0.2 runs per nine innings.</p>
<p>And now the reveal:</p>
<table border="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<th>Player</th>
<th>IP</th>
<th>K%</th>
<th>BB%</th>
<th>ERA-</th>
<th>FIP-</th>
<th>xFIP-</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b><span>Jarred Cosart</span></b></td>
<td>181 2/3</td>
<td>14.3</td>
<td>11.1</td>
<td>91</td>
<td>105</td>
<td>113</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b><span>Tom Koehler</span></b></td>
<td>298 2/3</td>
<td>17.0</td>
<td>8.7</td>
<td>112</td>
<td>111</td>
<td>114</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>Jacob Turner</b></td>
<td>251 1/3</td>
<td>15.2</td>
<td>8.5</td>
<td>121</td>
<td>114</td>
<td>116</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>The fact that Turner was Player 3 probably did not surprise anyone. The identity of the other two pitchers may have been a tad surprising unless you read through yesterday's article carefully. The Marlins just acquired Cosart from the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com/">Houston Astros</a> for two of the team's top hitting prospects, including last year's first-round draft pick. This despite the fact that his walk rate is absurd, he has the lowest strikeout of the three pitchers, and that his predicted ERA based on xFIP was close to 4.30.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Miami just gave away a pitcher who, despite a 5.94 ERA this season, had a reasonable FIP (the best of his career), was striking out more guys and walking fewer than ever, and had a predicted ERA by xFIP that was almost the same as the team's latest acquisition.</p>
<p>At the same time, Koehler has had the most predictive performance according to his ERA, since his FIP and xFIP are similar to his ERA. He has essentially played to his predicted level, making it easy for the Marlins to properly evaluate him. Thus the Fish have figured him out, correctly placing him as a fifth starter.</p>
<p>The problem is that the Miami front office appears to be evaluating players by: a) their scouting analysis (good) and B) very peripheral, basic statistics (bad). It is entirely possible that the Marlins watched Turner, tried to fix him, and found that they couldn't. But this attempt and mechanical adjustment flies in the face of the fact that his strikeout and walk numbers improved instead of declining, and that the only reason his ERA ballooned in 2014 was a completely anomalous .368 BABIP. That sort of number is just as likely, if not more likely, to be due to random variance and bad luck as it is to be due to poor mechanical work or some other scouting-based analysis of his game.</p>
<p>Turner is not a world beater right now, and his numbers do not project him to be a world beater next year. But he is 23 years old and essentially pitched at the level of Tom Koehler, whom the Marlins would not trade for absolutely nothing. Turner is probably half a rung down from being Jarred Cosart, whom the Marlins just spent a relative prospect fortune on. There is definitely a statistical argument that says that Turner was getting his game on track in the bullpen, and Miami's mistake was to not let him do that when they afforded Cosart and Koehler opportunities. The Fish may still be right in not seeing anything in Turner, but their inability to use statistical analysis of the game points to a greater concern for me than losing Jacob Turner.</p>
https://www.fishstripes.com/2014/8/14/6002143/miami-marlins-jacob-turner-comparison-jarred-cosart-tom-koehlerMichael Jong2014-08-13T09:00:21-04:002014-08-13T09:00:21-04:00Cubs and Marlins are building in opposite fashions
<figure>
<img alt="Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer are building the Cubs in a certain way, and that way goes opposite to how the Marlins build teams." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/6TdDWvM30K-fD2yqia8ExXt4r2A=/0x0:997x665/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/36868294/20120223_kkt_st3_042.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer are building the Cubs in a certain way, and that way goes opposite to how the Marlins build teams. | Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Chicago Cubs are building a future juggernaut behind position player prospects and pitching lottery tickets, including former Marlins starter Jacob Turner. The Fish are building their team in the opposite fashion. Is that hurting them?</p> <p>Yesterday, well-respected former Baseball Prospectus writer Rany Jazayerli wrote an extremely interesting article on Grantland about the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Chicago Cubs</a> and their <a href="http://grantland.com/the-triangle/chicago-cubs-rebuilding-theo-epstein-javier-baez-kris-bryant-jake-arrieta/">unorthodox and sensible approach to team-building</a>. Essentially, after hearing for years and years that pitching wins championships in baseball, Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer have gone the other way and built a position player cadre that is the envy of all of baseball.</p>
<div class="read-more">
<strong>More Jacob Turner</strong>: <a target="new" href="http://www.fishstripes.com/2014/8/8/5983377/miami-marlins-trade-jacob-turner-chicago-cubs-for-minor-league-relievers/in/5741708">Turner trade</a> <a target="new" href="http://www.fishstripes.com/2014/8/7/5977509/jacob-turner-dfa-miami-marlins-reasoning-playoff-odds-brad-penny/in/5741708">Reasoning ridiculous</a> <a target="new" href="http://www.fishstripes.com/2014/8/6/5973725/jacob-turner-designated-for-assignment-miami-marlins-bullpen/in/5741708">Bullpen attempt?</a>
</div>
<blockquote>
<p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 1.25em; padding: 0px; font-family: 'Harriet Text', Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.399999618530273px;">Rather than accept this attrition as the cost of doing business, the Cubs are trying a different way, which involves two simple principles:</p>
<p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 1.25em; padding: 0px; font-family: 'Harriet Text', Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.399999618530273px;">1. Investing a preponderance of their draft-and-development resources on hitting.</p>
<p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 1.25em; padding: 0px; font-family: 'Harriet Text', Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.399999618530273px;">2. Taking advantage of the unpredictability of pitchers by cheaply acquiring established major league pitchers with upside.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The Cubs have <span>Kris Bryant</span>, <span>Javier Baez</span>, <span>Jorge Soler</span>, <span>Albert Almora</span>, and Arismendy Alcantra all closing in on being big-league ready within the next year or year and a half. They just picked up consensus top-30 prospect <span>Addison Russell</span> from the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.athleticsnation.com/">Oakland Athletics</a> in the <span>Jeff Samardzija</span> / <span>Jason Hammel</span> trade. The focus on position players has been a concerted effort, as the team drafted position player again in 2014 as well. And all of those top prospect name are looking mighty good now, with Baez and Alcantra already playing and Bryant almost certainly to follow next year.</p>
<p>That group of players, combined with incumbents <span>Starlin Castro</span> and <span>Anthony Rizzo</span>, make for a stellar cast of hitters. But the Cubs have had to shop the bargain basement for pitchers, trying to find buy-low candidates to rehab and mend. This way, the Cubs can avoid the danger of developing and investing in a pitching prospect, only to see them fail.</p>
<blockquote>
<p><span>But the sport’s pitching obsession has one fatal flaw: Pitchers aren’t reliable. Young pitchers get </span><a style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #cd251f; font-family: 'Harriet Text', Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.399999618530273px; background-color: #ffffff;" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fernajo02.shtml">hurt</a><span>, and fail to</span><a style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #cd251f; font-family: 'Harriet Text', Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.399999618530273px; background-color: #ffffff;" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/millean01.shtml">develop</a><span>, and lose the strike zone </span><a style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #cd251f; font-family: 'Harriet Text', Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.399999618530273px; background-color: #ffffff;" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/ankieri01.shtml">overnight</a><span>. Trying to build around young pitching is like trying to hold water in your hands: It’s impossible to keep some of it from leaking out over time. The more resources a team invests in it, the more resources the team will squander. It’s a fundamental law of the sport.</span></p>
</blockquote>
<p>The Cubs have done this quite a few times since Epstein and Hoyer took over the front office, and the latest example of that was when the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.fishstripes.com/">Miami Marlins</a> traded <span>Jacob Turner</span> to the Cubs for two minor league relievers of no consequence. Turner was posting the best season FIP of his career at 4.00, with the highest strikeout rate and the lowest walk rate of any season as well. True, he worked eight strong (but hit-marred) games out of the bullpen to get those results, but the results still pointed to some promise. But because of the Marlins' ridiculous reasoning, the team dealt the 23-year-old pitcher for nothing instead of betting on his upside.</p>
<div class="sidebar">
<a href="http://www.fishstripes.com/2014/8/7/5977509/jacob-turner-dfa-miami-marlins-reasoning-playoff-odds-brad-penny/in/5741708">
<h2>Marlins' reasoning for Turner DFA ridiculous</h2>
<img src="http://cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/36633458/20140803_kkt_su8_015.jpg.0_standard_305.0.jpg"> </a> <span>The Cubs traded nothing for Jacob Turner, and the Marlins' reasoning for the move was ridiculous.</span>
</div>
<p>If you are a part of the group of Marlins fans that, despite Turner's obvious shortcomings thus far in his career, were disappointed that Miami essentially released him for no return, you might be interested to see how the Fish compare to the Cubs in their approach. While Chicago focused its drafts and acquisitions on position players, who are better guarantees for success than pitchers, Miami doubled down on pitching over and over again. The team is well known for its love of high-upside hard-throwers in the draft, and it found the top name of that type of player in <a href="http://www.fishstripes.com/2014/6/5/5784168/mlb-draft-2014-miami-marlins-tyler-kolek-fastabll-velocity-upside-project">Tyler Kolek in 2014</a>. Since the reign of Larry Beinfest, the Marlins' <a href="http://www.fishstripes.com/2014/5/30/5765554/mlb-draft-2014-miami-marlins-historical-draft-profile">draft profile has skewed towards high school pitchers</a>, as the team has selected prep pitchers in eight of their 17 first-round picks including this season.</p>
<p>But it is not just in the draft. Miami opts for more pitching at any opportunity. Despite the fact that the Fish have a seemingly ready-made Major League replacement for 2014 in <span>Andrew Heaney</span>, the Fish <a href="http://www.fishstripes.com/2014/7/10/5886883/mlb-trade-deadline-miami-marlins-team-needs">made starting pitching their top priority</a> at the trade deadline. And they filled that quota with <span>Jarred Cosart</span>, who pitched well last night in the team's <a href="http://www.fishstripes.com/2014/8/12/5997065/mlb-scores-miami-marlins-3-st-louis-cardinals-0">3-0 win</a>. But for Cosart, a 24-year-old starter under team control through 2019, the Marlins paid a huge cost, trading their preseason second- and third-ranked prospects. including their 2013 first-round pick.</p>
<p>The Marlins just paid through the nose for a young, team-controlled pitcher who offers tools, upside, but not a lot of guaranteed performance.</p>
<p>The Cubs paid nothing for almost the same pitcher. Take a look at <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=10304,10185,6570">this table</a>.</p>
<p><a href="http://cdn0.vox-cdn.com/assets/4893488/StarterComparison.png" target="_blank"><img alt="Startercomparison_medium" class="photo" src="http://cdn0.vox-cdn.com/assets/4893488/StarterComparison_medium.png"></a> <br id="1407901951993"></p>
<p>Those are those three pitchers' performances since 2012 (Cosart began pitching in the majors in 2013). Turner has been the worst of the three, but not by a whole lot. And if you look at xFIP, which corrects their home run rates using their batted ball data rather than their raw home run totals, they are <i style="font-weight: bold;">essentially the same</i>. The Marlins, who so highly value pitching performance, paid the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com/">Astros</a> two respected prospects for the best of the three. The Cubs, who bargain-shopped and looked for guys underrated by ERA, just stole the guy only one rung down the ladder at best for nothing.</p>
<div class="pullquote">Miami is willing to throw resource after resource on young pitchers who may or may not pan out. They invest their money and trade bait on guys who have just a shred of Major League competency.</div>
<p>You can see how the two sides value pitching. Miami is willing to throw resource after resource on young pitchers who may or may not pan out. They invest their money and trade bait on guys who have just a shred of Major League competency. They toss first-round picks at long-term projects, hoping to hit the next <span>Josh Beckett</span> again. None of the first-round pitchers Miami drafted since Beinfest was general manager accumulated more than five Wins Above Replacement with Miami. Only two of the seven pitched more than 100 innings with the team; only one, <span>Chris Volstad</span>, threw more than 200 innings. Two of the high schoolers never made the majors for Miami.</p>
<p>All of those draft resources, bonus money, and trade fodder were tossed out in search of stabilization at a position that is hard to stabilize. Meanwhile, the Cubs have hit on a few diamonds in the rough by findings guys who were underperforming their strikeout and walk rates, and they just nabbed another pitcher who has at least a snowball's chance of developing into another <span>Jake Arrieta</span> success story. Jazayerli points this out:</p>
<blockquote>
<p><span>Four months ago, the Marlins could have gotten a huge haul of talent for Turner, yet they cut him </span><em style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: 'Harriet Text', Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.399999618530273px;">even though he was pitching better than ever</em><span>. Turner’s FIP this year is the </span><em style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: 'Harriet Text', Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.399999618530273px;">best</em><span> of his career. His average fastball velocity (92.6 mph) is the </span><em style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: 'Harriet Text', Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.399999618530273px;">highest</em><span> of his career. Releasing him defies explanation. If you were to put together a list of the pitchers most likely to be the Arrieta of 2015, Turner might rank at the very top. I’m sure the Marlins had their reasons for getting rid of him, but then I’m sure they had their reasons for getting rid of Millar 11 years ago.</span></p>
</blockquote>
<p>Miami saw a pitcher who wasn't cutting it for their stretch run and who couldn't be demoted, even though there were ways to circumvent that problem. The Cubs saw a buy-low project with all upside and little downside at the cost of acquisition. The unfortunate thing is that that type of player, a buy-low pitcher under heavy team control who could develop into an asset, is <i>exactly</i> whom a talent-starved and money-tight organization like the Fish should be acquiring! Teams with no money should be shooting for the moon and hoping for upside and recovery!</p>
<div class="likebox-float-right"><iframe allowtransparency="true" style="border:none; overflow:hidden;" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" src="//www.facebook.com/plugins/likebox.php?href=https://www.facebook.com/FishStripes&colorscheme=light&show_faces=true&show_border=false&stream=false&header=false"></iframe></div>
<p>The Marlins have established a team-building concept focused around acquiring pitching talent first and foremost. They believe the team is built around a "pitching and defense" principle that supposedly got them the 2003 World Series. But the Cubs have found the different and perhaps more efficient approach. In a world where pitching talent is such a crapshoot, why not invest more in sure-fire hitting bets and roll the dice on pitching? The Marlins put in a lot of assets on pitching and have not yet succeeded. The Cubs spent the last three years investing on position players and rolling those dice, and their pitching staff is better than Miami's in 2014.</p>
https://www.fishstripes.com/2014/8/13/5997301/chicago-cubs-miami-marlins-organization-philosophy-pitchingMichael Jong2014-08-12T21:43:56-04:002014-08-12T21:43:56-04:00Rany Jazayerli on the Marlins' Jacob Turner move<blockquote>
<p><p>Four months ago, the Marlins could have gotten a huge haul of talent for Turner, yet they cut him even though he was pitching better than ever. Turner’s FIP this year is the best of his career. His average fastball velocity (92.6 mph) is the highest of his career. Releasing him defies explanation. If you were to put together a list of the pitchers most likely to be the Arrieta of 2015, Turner might rank at the very top. I’m sure the Marlins had their reasons for getting rid of him, but then I’m sure they had their reasons for getting rid of Millar 11 years ago.</p></p>
</blockquote>
<div class="source"><p><p>- Rany Jazayerli, noted baseball smart guy, over at <a href="http://grantland.com/the-triangle/chicago-cubs-rebuilding-theo-epstein-javier-baez-kris-bryant-jake-arrieta/">Grantland</a>. The Cubs are building a team in the right manner, the Marlins are going in the opposite direction, interestingly enough.</p></p></div>
https://www.fishstripes.com/2014/8/12/5997053/rany-jazayerli-on-the-marlins-jacob-turner-moveMichael Jong2014-08-08T14:30:02-04:002014-08-08T14:30:02-04:00Marlins trade Turner to Cubs for 2 minor leaguers
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/R8HNpkWcmA7daVCgNbeJLuIMp-U=/0x130:4000x2797/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/36687910/20140803_kkt_su8_026.jpg.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Miami Marlins have completed their transaction with the Chicago Cubs for Jacob Turner, sending him away for two minor league relievers who were not highly touted.</p> <p>And just like that, the ugly <span>Jacob Turner</span> era ends with the <a href="https://www.fishstripes.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Miami Marlins</a>, even though it never had to.</p>
<p>The Fish finished up their deal with the <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Chicago Cubs</a>, trading Turner to the Cubbies for two minor league relievers. ESPN's Keith Law had the initial report via Twitter.</p>
<blockquote lang="en" class="twitter-tweet">
<p>Cubs acquire RHP Jacob Turner from Marlins for a couple of minor leaguers. Love this pickup for Chicago.</p>
— keithlaw (@keithlaw) <a href="https://twitter.com/keithlaw/statuses/497798233549467648">August 8, 2014</a>
</blockquote>
<p>
<script charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
</p>
<p>When asked who those minor leaguers were, Law reported that they were essentially of no consequence.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<p>Low A relievers. Not prospects. "<a href="https://twitter.com/Hawkstrat">@Hawkstrat</a>: <a href="https://twitter.com/keithlaw">@keithlaw</a> which ones?"</p>
— keithlaw (@keithlaw) <a href="https://twitter.com/keithlaw/statuses/497800685044641792">August 8, 2014</a>
</blockquote>
<p>
<script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</p>
<p>The two relievers turned out to be righties Tyler Bremer (according to his own brother Noah) and Jose Arias, according to ESPN Chicago's Jesse Rogers.</p>
<blockquote lang="en" class="twitter-tweet">
<p>My brother Tyler Bremer just got traded to the <a href="https://twitter.com/Marlins">@Marlins</a> I wish him the best of luck.</p>
— Noah Bremer (@bremdizzle10) <a href="https://twitter.com/bremdizzle10/statuses/497803328416669698">August 8, 2014</a>
</blockquote>
<p>
<script charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
</p>
<blockquote lang="en" class="twitter-tweet">
<p>Pitchers Tyler Bremer and Jose Arias go to Marlins for Jacob Turner</p>
— Jesse Rogers (@ESPNChiCubs) <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNChiCubs/statuses/497804867826900993">August 8, 2014</a>
</blockquote>
<p>
<script charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
</p>
<p>Neither pitcher was a top-30 prospect by Baseball America in the Cubs organization, but both have pitched well in Low-A this season. Arias is a 23-year-old too old for Low-A baseball who otherwise has dominated, posting a 1.77 ERA and 2.71 FIP in 40 2/3 relief innings. Bremer is even older at 24 years of age, but he too pitched well in Low-A with a 2.43 ERA and 2.74 FIP before getting a rude awakening in High-A. Neither pitcher looks like a future contributor.</p>
<p>This ends the saga of the Jacob Turner designated for assignment move that made zero sense for the Marlins. The Fish wanted the roster spot on the 40- and 25-man rosters, presumably to bring up aged righty <span>Brad Penny</span> to fill a hole in the rotation left by, well, Jacob Turner. Turner had pitched poorly in the rotation all season, posting a 6.03 ERA and 4.53 FIP, but he had improved in some aspects of his game over last season. His walk rate had dropped and his strikeouts came back up a bit, and more importantly, he showed flashes of being a decent reliever in a meager 15 2/3 innings of work. Turner whiffed 14 batters with just three walks and no homers in those innings, but gave up a .407 BABIP en route to a 5.74 ERA out of the pen that hid a more impressive 1.92 FIP.</p>
<p>The Marlins are getting back what a prospect expert like Law says is minor league depth in return, which essentially does not help the Marlins at all. Combine that with the likelihood that Brad Penny will add nothing to the Marlins' chances of competing in 2014, and the jettison of Turner is a lopsided lose-lose deal for the Fish. As we mentioned yesterday in lambasting the reasoning behind the deal, the alternatives were present. Miami could have demoted <span>Sam Dyson</span> or <span>Dan Jennings</span> back to Triple-A, where both have been shuttled back and forth, and kept Turner in a long relief or mopup role where he would not hurt any games that mattered to Miami. There, he could develop and revamp his game for the bullpen and see if shorter bursts could help improve his work.</p>
<p>Instead, Miami opted for no upside instead of low upside and essentially released Turner. The Cubs have had recent success making over seemingly broken pitchers, having found the spark in former <a href="https://www.camdenchat.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Orioles</a> prospect Jake Arrieta. Then again, the Cubs did trade <span>Carlos Zambrano</span> to us for <span>Chris Volstad</span>, and that did not work out, so nothing is a guarantee for the 23-year-old Turner. Still, the Marlins have so little guaranteed talent in the minors that it seems counter-intuitive to trade a team-controlled player who is posting his best career strikeout and walk rates for any one season for absolutely nothing when they could have kept him for absolutely nothing.</p>
<p>The Marlins will try out Penny and see how much the 36-year-old can offer. When he inevitably falters, the Fish may turn to their young players again in their race for a fringe playoff spot. But the point is not that Turner would have been a better pitcher. The point is that this move is a shortsighted mistake on principle by the Marlins' front office, regardless of whether Turner turns out to be Volstad or Arrieta. It is a mistake regardless of hindsight years down the line. Even if Miami never suffers significantly from it, this is the incorrect move for a talent-starved roster.</p>
https://www.fishstripes.com/2014/8/8/5983377/miami-marlins-trade-jacob-turner-chicago-cubs-for-minor-league-relieversMichael Jong2014-08-07T12:00:11-04:002014-08-07T12:00:11-04:00Marlins' reasoning for Turner DFA ridiculous
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/GZwziu6Ymjinxq4UtZQbaP5E9ak=/0x100:4000x2767/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/36609426/20140803_kkt_su8_015.jpg.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the eve of the Chicago Cubs claiming Jacob Turner on waivers, the Miami Marlins' decision to put the reliever out there and available seems more and more ridiculous.</p> <p>The ongoing saga of the <span>Jacob Turner</span> designated for assignment situation is getting worse for the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.fishstripes.com/">Miami Marlins</a>.</p>
<p>Turner was DFA'd earlier this week after another poor start on Sunday, and it did not take long for a team to hold interest in his services. The <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Chicago Cubs</a> were the second team on the waiver availability, ahead of only the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.purplerow.com/">Colorado Rockies</a>, and the Cubs pounced and claimed Turner on waivers. That means the Marlins have 48.5 hours to make a move on Turner or revoke his claim and leave him on the 25-man roster.</p>
<p>MLB.com's Joe Frisaro tried to shed light on why the Turner situation happened now, a week after the trade deadline and with the Marlins struggling to stay in contention for a playoff spot. According to Frisaro, it is indeed all about the playoff spot.</p>
<blockquote>
<p style="padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; color: #333333; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 19.200000762939453px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Still with time to make up ground in the standings, the Marlins felt an urgency to make a difficult move.</p>
<p style="padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; color: #333333; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 19.200000762939453px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Even though it may be a long shot, the Marlins still have playoff aspirations. To stay in the race as long as possible, they are looking for those who give them their best chance.</p>
<p style="padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; color: #333333; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 19.200000762939453px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Because Turner is out of options, the club felt the time was now to move in another direction. So Turner was designated, and lefty <span>Brian Flynn</span> was called up from Triple-A New Orleans.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The way the Fish see it, the team needs capable arms to make the playoff race a possibility. Miami still stands 6.5 games behind the division-leading <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.federalbaseball.com/">Washington Nationals</a> and six games behind the second Wild Card spot. With their hold on a chance for the playoffs tenuous, the team simply could not afford to keep Turner on the roster in favor of better pitchers.</p>
<p>Except Miami's options were clearly greater than they were painted here. Frisaro makes it sound as though there was nowhere to hide Turner to allow him to develop, except the bullpen is a perfect place for that. Turner had good numbers in the pen despite an ugly ERA, as he struck out 14 batters in 15 2/3 innings out of the pen. That's a minuscule, almost meaningless sample, but it also means Miami saw good peripherals and not enough time to make a full evaluation. Instead of pulling the trigger on a release, <a href="http://www.fishstripes.com/2014/8/6/5973725/jacob-turner-designated-for-assignment-miami-marlins-bullpen">why not try and play him there again?</a></p>
<p>The excuse is that Miami is in the thick of the playoff race and cannot afford poor pitching. But that logic makes no sense for a Turner role as a long reliever or mop-up duty player. <span>Sam Dyson</span> is currently filling that role for the Fish, and he has pitched in a pathetically low number of competitive games. The average Leverage Index (LI) of games he has entered this season is 0.56, meaning that the average situation he enters out of the pen is <i style="font-weight: bold;">half as important</i> as a regular plate appearance. Dyson has faced 73 batters this season, and a whopping 40 of them have been in situations where the margin of the game was greater than four runs, meaning the game was mostly in hand.</p>
<div class="sidebar">
<a href="http://www.fishstripes.com/2014/8/5/5971745/miami-marlins-news-marlins-designate-jacob-turner-for-assignment">
<h2>Jacob Turner designated for assignment</h2>
<img src="http://cdn3.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/36535972/20140803_kkt_su8_020.jpg.0_standard_305.0.jpg"> </a> <span>The Miami Marlins designated Jacob Turner for assignment on Tuesday afternoon. Brian Flynn will take his spot on the roster.</span>
</div>
<div class="sidebar">
<a href="http://www.fishstripes.com/2014/8/6/5973543/examining-the-downfall-of-jacob-turner">
<h2>Examining the downfall of Jacob Turner</h2>
<img src="http://cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/36598130/20140803_kkt_su8_019.jpg.0_standard_305.0.jpg"> </a> <span>we take a look at what exactly went wrong and what Jacob Turner's future could be in the big leagues.</span>
</div>
<p>Those situations have almost no effect on the game state, meaning Miami's wins or (more likely) losses are well in hand in those situations. Dyson has an option this season that has already been used, meaning the Fish can freely demote and promote him as needed. The same can be said for <span>Dan Jennings</span>, who has been shuttled back and forth between Triple-A and the bigs. With Dyson entering games with nothing on the line, why couldn't Miami use Turner in those meaningless situations instead and let him work on bullpen performance until he feels comfortable in the role?</p>
<p>The Marlins' argument for the playoffs is also tenuous at best, as <a href="http://www.fishstripes.com/2014/7/30/5951101/miami-marlins-playoff-odds-contention-washington-nationals-atlanta-braves">we noted last week</a>. That means Miami will have a hard time climbing back into the playoff race. Why make a roster decision that has potential long-term implications and tosses out an asset (no matter how low the value right now) for the slim chance of the playoffs? FanGraphs calculates Miami's odds for the playoffs after last night's loss at between 2.7 and 5.1 percent. The team discarded a 23-year-old pitcher with a spot to work on his improvement for a chance at making the playoffs 25 to 50 times out of every 1000 iterations of the rest of this season. How is that a reasonable move for a team not loaded with prospect talent or Major League options?</p>
<p>The worst part of Frisaro's attempted explanation is the replacement option for Miami in their quest for the playoffs. It turns out the desired candidate is not Brian Flynn, who was promoted and will make today's start in the series finale versus the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.bucsdugout.com/">Pirates</a>. Instead, the target is 36-year-old former Marlin <span>Brad Penny</span>.</p>
<blockquote>
<p style="padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; color: #333333; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 19.200000762939453px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">The Marlins have yet to announce who will get the nod that day, but expect it to be Brad Penny.</p>
<p style="padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; color: #333333; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 19.200000762939453px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Of course Penny is not part of the club’s long-term future. But the veteran has pitched in playoff chases before. He’s a former All-Star, and you may recall, he won two games for the Marlins in the 2003 World Series.</p>
<p style="padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; color: #333333; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 19.200000762939453px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Penny may not ultimately be the answer to help the Marlins reach their playoff goal this year, but he will bring a veteran presence to a young staff. Penny also may wind up logging valuable innings down the stretch, which will ease the work load of the rest of the staff.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>If this is the case, this is simply a preposterous idea. The Marlins gave out a young pitcher who has not been given much time to work out of the pen to instead provide an opportunity to a 36-year-old pitcher who was last an average player in 2009! The last time Brad Penny pitched a full, decent season in the majors, I was just starting my blogging career. Miami is turning to someone because he is a "veteran" who also happens to be a former Marlin. Three seasons ago, Penny threw 181 awful innings for the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.blessyouboys.com/">Detroit Tigers</a>. Two years ago, the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/">San Francisco Giants</a> tried to use him out of the pen to disastrous results. Miami is expecting <i>this </i>guy to help anchor the back of their rotation for the next month or two for their much-hyped playoff push?</p>
<div class="pullquote">But the Fish are chasing awful playoff odds with pitchers who have been awful for half a decade and tossing out young assets in the process.</div>
<p>This train of thought makes <i style="font-weight: bold;">zero sense</i>. If the Marlins were interested in testing out Flynn or <span>Justin Nicolino</span>, or retrying with <span>Andrew Heaney</span> or <span>Anthony DeSclafani</span>, I could see them potentially justifying the roster spot. But the Fish are chasing awful playoff odds with pitchers who have been awful for half a decade and tossing out young assets in the process. This screams desperation and a lack of know-how from an organization that has made questionable moves for the last few years when they sniffed a playoff spot. The Marlins may be trying to improve their team for a run at the playoffs, but letting an asset like Turner go while asking for washed-up veterans like Penny to help your odds is just <i style="font-weight: bold;">poor management </i>that cannot be justified.</p>
https://www.fishstripes.com/2014/8/7/5977509/jacob-turner-dfa-miami-marlins-reasoning-playoff-odds-brad-pennyMichael Jong2014-08-07T10:00:10-04:002014-08-07T10:00:10-04:00Brad Penny may be promoted, slotted into rotation
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/cxOaoCMQn6ymEi6SCRVvo8H_cc8=/0x0:4000x2667/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/36610440/149828198.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Justin Edmonds</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>After designating Jacob Turner for assignment, Brad Penny may receive an opportunity to start for the Marlins. Penny has pitched well in Triple-A and would give the Marlins a veteran arm in the back of the rotation. </p> <p><span>Brad Penny</span> may be the newest <a href="https://www.fishstripes.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Miami Marlins</a> starter.</p>
<p>After designating <span>Jacob Turner</span> for assignment on Tuesday, the Marlins may be inclined to promote Penny, who was signed to a minor league contract in June.</p>
<p>Joe Frisaro of MLB.com was <a href="http://joefrisaro.mlblogs.com/2014/08/06/timing-led-to-cutting-ties-with-turner/">among the first to suggest that Penny </a>may be promoted, noting that Saturday in Cincinnati would make the most sense.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<p>Even though Flynn is being brought up. Chances are he will be used in long relief. Brad Penny could eventually get rotation spot <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Marlins?src=hash">#Marlins</a></p>
— Joe Frisaro (@JoeFrisaro) <a href="https://twitter.com/JoeFrisaro/statuses/496739337355419648">August 5, 2014</a>
</blockquote>
<blockquote>
<p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; color: #333333; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 19.200000762939453px; background: #ffffff;">The Marlins have yet to announce who will get the nod that day, but expect it to be Brad Penny.</p>
<p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; color: #333333; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 19.200000762939453px; background: #ffffff;">Of course Penny is not part of the club’s long-term future. But the veteran has pitched in playoff chases before. He’s a former All-Star, and you may recall, he won two games for the Marlins in the 2003 World Series.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>With the Marlins designating Turner and losing <span>Jose Fernandez</span> to season-ending surgery and <span>Henderson Alvarez</span> for two weeks, Penny could be slotted into the rotation and guide one of baseball's younger staffs.</p>
<p>In five starts with New Orleans, Penny is 2-2 with a 2.28 ERA and 2.85 FIP in 27 and two third innings. Penny started his minor league stint with the Marlins' Single-A affiliate, pitching to an 0-2 record, 5.06 ERA, and 2.93 FIP in just over ten innings.</p>
<p>Penny last appeared in the major leagues with the Giants in 2012, when he posted a 6.11 ERA and 5.31 FIP in 28 innings.</p>
<p>Before the Marlins were interested in trading for a starter, Penny was expected to get an opportunity but was never called upon. He was also a candidate to serve as the Marlins' long reliever, but the organization felt he was better off starting games.</p>
<p>Miami still feels as if it can compete for a wild card spot, and slotting Penny into the rotation may give the club a better opportunity than promoting prospects such as <span>Andrew Heaney</span> or <span>Anthony DeSclafani</span> prematurely.</p>
<p><span><b><i>Editor's Note</i></b>: SB Nation's partner FanDuel is hosting a one-day $18,000 Fantasy Baseball league for tonight's MLB games. It's $2 to join and first prize is $2,000. Jump in now. </span><a href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fanduel.com%2Fleague%2Fmlb-squeeze%3Ft%3DSBN_MLBMARLINS&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fishstripes.com%2F2014%2F8%2F7%2F5977585%2Fmiami-marlins-news-brad-penny-may-join-rotation" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Here's the FanDuel link.</a></p>
https://www.fishstripes.com/2014/8/7/5977585/miami-marlins-news-brad-penny-may-join-rotationScott Gelman2014-08-07T08:00:15-04:002014-08-07T08:00:15-04:00Chicago Cubs claim Turner on revocable waivers
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/TDWQEBD4HxBLxAT5lMVJcPuzXpg=/0x310:2857x2215/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/36611064/450741852.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Rob Foldy</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Chicago Cubs claimed Jacob Turner off of revocable waivers on Wednesday. A trade is likely since Turner would be back on waivers if the Marlins chose to pull him back. </p> <p><span>Jacob Turner</span> is still an attractive pitching prospect.</p>
<p>Despite the fact the <a href="https://www.fishstripes.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Marlins</a> designated Turner for assignment on Tuesday, several clubs were reportedly interested in adding a young arm and Turner was being looked at. Just shy of a week after the non-waiver trade deadline, the <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Chicago Cubs</a> claimed Turner off of revocable waivers on Wednesday.</p>
<div class="read-more">
<strong>More Jacob Turner</strong>: <a target="new" href="http://www.fishstripes.com/2014/8/5/5971745/miami-marlins-news-marlins-designate-jacob-turner-for-assignment">Turner DFA'd</a> <a target="new" href="http://www.fishstripes.com/2014/8/6/5973725/jacob-turner-designated-for-assignment-miami-marlins-bullpen">Could have bullpen use?</a> <a target="new" href="http://www.fishstripes.com/2014/8/6/5973543/examining-the-downfall-of-jacob-turner">Turner's downfall</a>
</div>
<p>Jim Bowden of ESPN was among the first to report the news.</p>
<blockquote lang="en" class="twitter-tweet">
<p>Cubs claim Jacob Turner on waivers and have the rights <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Cubs?src=hash">#Cubs</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/Cubs">@Cubs</a></p>
— Jim Bowden (@JimBowden_ESPN) <a href="https://twitter.com/JimBowden_ESPN/statuses/497092870340620288">August 6, 2014</a>
</blockquote>
<p>While it would have been easier to discuss a trade before the non-waiver deadline, the Marlins will now<a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/08/cubs-claim-jacob-turner-off-revocable-waivers.html"> look to see what they can receive for Turner</a>, who was acquired in the <span>Anibal Sanchez</span>/<span>Omar Infante</span> trade with the <a href="https://www.blessyouboys.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Detroit Tigers</a>.</p>
<blockquote>
<p><span>A deal is likely, of course, because Turner was designated for assignment and therefore would ultimately go back onto waivers if Miami were to pull him back. In that event, the same waiver priority order would apply. Only the <a href="https://www.purplerow.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Rockies</a> (worst record in the National League) had a higher priority than the Cubs, meaning that Colorado passed on the chance to add the 23-year-old, once-hyped righty.</span></p>
</blockquote>
<p>After he was designated, several organizations were thought to be intrigued by the possibility of adding Turner to their respective rotations. The Cubs were among them, having developed <span>Jake Arrieta</span>, who is having a solid season.</p>
<p>Turner pitched to a 4-7 record to complement a 5.97 ERA and 1.65 FIP in 2014, but is a young and controllable arm who can become a consistent ground ball-type pitcher if he can find the strike zone with frequency.</p>
<p>It is unlikely Turner is pulled off of waivers by the Marlins, but if it were to happen, only the Colorado Rockies would have a chance at putting in a claim before the Cubs.</p>
<div class="likebox-float-right">
<iframe allowtransparency="true" style="border:none; overflow:hidden;" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" src="//www.facebook.com/plugins/likebox.php?href=https://www.facebook.com/FishStripes&colorscheme=light&show_faces=true&show_border=false&stream=false&header=false"></iframe>
</div>
<p>Miami will likely add a <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/24650555/reports-cubs-claim-jacob-turner">very minor league prospect </a>in any trade, but designating Turner was the only choice since he was out of options.</p>
<p>Considering the Marlins felt Turner will not be able to become a consistent major league starter, a deal involving a potential minor prospect may be beneficial.</p>
https://www.fishstripes.com/2014/8/7/5977539/jacob-turner-dfa-chicago-cubs-claim-waiversScott Gelman