Fish Stripes - Miami Marlins close to signing Garrett Jones to two-year contract, $7.5 million contractCovering the Marlins every day in our own wayhttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/52814/Screen_Shot_2018-12-07_at_12.32.35_PM..png2013-12-16T12:00:18-05:00http://www.fishstripes.com/rss/stream/49474652013-12-16T12:00:18-05:002013-12-16T12:00:18-05:00Marlins' signings cripple lineup versus lefties
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<img alt="New Marlin Jarrod Saltalamacchia's problems versus left-handers are helping to contribute to a growing issue." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/4veWCeayZWJ0p8unrwpHBgfdyLQ=/0x272:2693x2067/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/25212193/20131209_ajl_mb2_010.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>New Marlin Jarrod Saltalamacchia's problems versus left-handers are helping to contribute to a growing issue. | David Manning-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>The Miami Marlins made a number of moves in free agency, but all of them have limited their options when it comes to facing left-handed pitching. How can the Fish turn around this situation?</p> <p>The <a href="https://www.fishstripes.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Miami Marlins</a> made a number of moves this offseason, and it has felt like they have declined in order of quality.</p>
<p>1) The Marlins signed <span>Jarrod Saltalamacchia</span> to a <a href="http://www.fishstripes.com/2013/12/3/5171694/miami-marlins-rumors-free-agent-jarrod-saltalamacchia">reasonable three-year deal</a> that fills in the roster's biggest hole for some time.</p>
<p>2) The Marlins signed <span>Rafael Furcal</span> to a <a href="http://www.fishstripes.com/2013/12/5/5180716/miami-marlins-free-agent-signing-rafael-furcal-one-year-contract">one-year deal</a> that did not appear to have much upside, but couldn't hurt the team.</p>
<p>3) The team signed <span>Garrett Jones</span> to a <a href="http://www.fishstripes.com/2013/12/6/5183424/miami-marlins-free-agent-signing-garrett-jones-two-year-contract">two-year deal</a> despite his clear issues as a player.</p>
<p>4) The team <a href="http://www.fishstripes.com/2013/12/9/5194444/miami-marlins-logan-morrison-trade-rumors-2013-winter-meetings">traded</a> <span>Logan Morrison</span> to make room for Jones and fill in a position that did not need a lot of help.</p>
<p>In the midst of these moves, however, the Fish opened up an increasing lineup concern that now figures to be very difficult to resolve. Two of the Marlins' three signings are functional left-handed hitters with wide platoon splits for their careers. Jones, in particular, has an extreme split and replaced a player who was not only younger, but had more reasonable platoon splits for his career. Morrison is a career .244/.329/.378 (.317 wOBA) hitter versus lefties.</p>
<p>All of this has led the Marlins to an extremely bad lineup versus left-handed pitching for the 2014 season. Take a look at this proposed lineup I put up last week in our post on <a href="http://www.fishstripes.com/2013/12/13/5207102/2013-winter-meetings-miami-marlins-lineup-optimization">optimizing the batting lineup</a>.</p>
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<table border="0" class="sbn-data-table" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; border-collapse: collapse; border-spacing: 0px; font-family: 'Gotham Narrow SSm A', 'Gotham Narrow SSm B', Arial, sans-serif; width: 703px; border: 6px solid #ccd1d5; text-align: center; line-height: 1.125em; margin-bottom: 1em; font-size: 13px; color: #292929;"><tbody style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box;">
<tr class="ui-state-even" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box;">
<th style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 4px; font-size: 0.85em; border: 2px solid #ccd1d5; background-color: #ccd1d5; font-weight: 400; color: #444444; text-transform: uppercase; text-align: left;">POSITION</th>
<th style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 4px; font-size: 0.85em; border: 2px solid #ccd1d5; background-color: #ccd1d5; font-weight: 400; color: #444444; text-transform: uppercase;">PLAYER</th>
<th style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 4px; font-size: 0.85em; border: 2px solid #ccd1d5; background-color: #ccd1d5; font-weight: 400; color: #444444; text-transform: uppercase;">PROJ WOBA VS. RHP</th>
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<tr class="ui-state-odd" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box;">
<td style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 4px; font-size: 0.85em; border: 2px solid #ccd1d5; background-color: #e4e9ed; color: #555555; text-align: left; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">1</td>
<td style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 4px; font-size: 0.85em; border: 2px solid #ccd1d5; background-color: #e4e9ed; color: #555555; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"><span>Donovan Solano</span></td>
<td style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 4px; font-size: 0.85em; border: 2px solid #ccd1d5; background-color: #e4e9ed; color: #555555; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">.306</td>
</tr>
<tr class="ui-state-even" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box;">
<td style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 4px; font-size: 0.85em; border: 2px solid #ccd1d5; color: #555555; text-align: left;">2</td>
<td style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 4px; font-size: 0.85em; border: 2px solid #ccd1d5; color: #555555;"><span>Marcell Ozuna</span></td>
<td style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 4px; font-size: 0.85em; border: 2px solid #ccd1d5; color: #555555;">.324</td>
</tr>
<tr class="ui-state-odd" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box;">
<td style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 4px; font-size: 0.85em; border: 2px solid #ccd1d5; background-color: #e4e9ed; color: #555555; text-align: left; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">3</td>
<td style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 4px; font-size: 0.85em; border: 2px solid #ccd1d5; background-color: #e4e9ed; color: #555555; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">Rafael Furcal</td>
<td style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 4px; font-size: 0.85em; border: 2px solid #ccd1d5; background-color: #e4e9ed; color: #555555; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">.300</td>
</tr>
<tr class="ui-state-even" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box;">
<td style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 4px; font-size: 0.85em; border: 2px solid #ccd1d5; color: #555555; text-align: left;">4</td>
<td style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 4px; font-size: 0.85em; border: 2px solid #ccd1d5; color: #555555;"><span>Giancarlo Stanton</span></td>
<td style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 4px; font-size: 0.85em; border: 2px solid #ccd1d5; color: #555555;">.424</td>
</tr>
<tr class="ui-state-odd" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box;">
<td style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 4px; font-size: 0.85em; border: 2px solid #ccd1d5; background-color: #e4e9ed; color: #555555; text-align: left; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">5</td>
<td style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 4px; font-size: 0.85em; border: 2px solid #ccd1d5; background-color: #e4e9ed; color: #555555; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"><span>Christian Yelich</span></td>
<td style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 4px; font-size: 0.85em; border: 2px solid #ccd1d5; background-color: #e4e9ed; color: #555555; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">.299</td>
</tr>
<tr class="ui-state-even" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box;">
<td style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 4px; font-size: 0.85em; border: 2px solid #ccd1d5; color: #555555; text-align: left;">6</td>
<td style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 4px; font-size: 0.85em; border: 2px solid #ccd1d5; color: #555555;"><span>Adeiny Hechavarria</span></td>
<td style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 4px; font-size: 0.85em; border: 2px solid #ccd1d5; color: #555555;">.290</td>
</tr>
<tr class="ui-state-odd" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box;">
<td style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 4px; font-size: 0.85em; border: 2px solid #ccd1d5; background-color: #e4e9ed; color: #555555; text-align: left; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">7</td>
<td style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 4px; font-size: 0.85em; border: 2px solid #ccd1d5; background-color: #e4e9ed; color: #555555; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">Jarrod Saltalamacchia</td>
<td style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 4px; font-size: 0.85em; border: 2px solid #ccd1d5; background-color: #e4e9ed; color: #555555; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">.277</td>
</tr>
<tr class="ui-state-even" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box;">
<td style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 4px; font-size: 0.85em; border: 2px solid #ccd1d5; color: #555555; text-align: left;">8</td>
<td style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 4px; font-size: 0.85em; border: 2px solid #ccd1d5; color: #555555;">Pitcher</td>
<td style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 4px; font-size: 0.85em; border: 2px solid #ccd1d5; color: #555555;">---</td>
</tr>
<tr class="ui-state-odd" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box;">
<td style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 4px; font-size: 0.85em; border: 2px solid #ccd1d5; background-color: #e4e9ed; color: #555555; text-align: left; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">9</td>
<td style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 4px; font-size: 0.85em; border: 2px solid #ccd1d5; background-color: #e4e9ed; color: #555555; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">Garrett Jones</td>
<td style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 4px; font-size: 0.85em; border: 2px solid #ccd1d5; background-color: #e4e9ed; color: #555555; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">.273</td>
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</tbody></table>
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<p>When one of your prized free agent acquisitions, picked up particularly for their bat and power, should bat <i style="font-weight: bold;">last in the order</i> versus lefties, you have a problem.</p>
<p>Manager Mike Redmond has apparently downplayed the problem of Jones's troubling splits in <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mia/manager-mike-redmond-lays-out-potential-plan-for-marlins-lineup?ymd=20131211&content_id=64607744&vkey=news_mia">discussing his potential lineups</a> next season.</p>
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<p style="margin-top: 1em; padding: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">The Miami manager, in his second year directing the club, added that he intends to give the left-handed-hitting Jones opportunities to face lefty pitching. With the <a href="https://www.bucsdugout.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Pirates</a> last season, Jones was used in a platoon situation, as he batted .095 (2-for-21) against lefties. And he's hit southpaws at a career .193 clip.</p>
<p style="margin-top: 1em; padding: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">Redmond pointed out that a few years ago, Jones fared better against lefties. In 2010, for instance, his lefty split was .220 (47-for-214).</p>
<p style="margin-top: 1em; padding: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">"You look at his numbers in the past ... he has been successful," Redmond said. "So I think initially, my thoughts are he can play every single day."</p>
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<p>This may either be Redmond saying all the "right" things about a player for whom the team is trying to find a platoon partner. Or it could be Redmond being blind in terms of the statistics, which would not surprise me either. In 2010, Jones indeed did hit .220 versus lefties versus .262 versus right-handers. What the lone batting average does not reveal is that he actually hit <i style="font-weight: bold;">.220/.261/.360 (.273 wOBA)</i> that year, which is exactly what we have him projected to hit against lefties in 2014. Even that line is not acceptable, but it sounds as though Redmond would be willing to bat Jones as high as cleanup, even versus left-handers!</p>
<p>The problem is made worse by the fact that the roster is not built with ready-made platoon partners for Jones and Saltalamacchia. Jeff Mathis will likely platoon with Saltalamacchia, but he is projected to hit worse versus lefties than even Salty will. At least in Mathis's case, the defensive and game-calling contributions may help. The Fish have no such partners offering superior defense or offense at first base, where the team's only players may be utility men Donovan Solano and Ed Lucas. Both players are better than Jones versus lefties, but they are not maximized at first base. The Marlins did not help their roster construction with the trade for lefty outfielder <span>Brian Bogusevic</span> and the re-signing of lefty bench-only player <span>Greg Dobbs</span>.</p>
<p>These problems should constrict the Marlins' chase for a third baseman as well. The best player remaining on the market may be <span>Eric Chavez</span>, whom the Marlins could have signed and platooned with Lucas or Solano. But with Miami now loaded on left-handers who could require platooning, the team is looking more for a right-handed option to play first and third base on a more regular basis. That cuts Chavez, a legitimately appealing option with a .276/.335/.456 batting line over the last three seasons, out of the mix. The team's bench situation also requires that the player can play third and first, because Miami cannot afford to carry a <i>third</i> first baseman between Jones, Dobbs and any acquired player.</p>
<p>The most widely-discussed option for the Marlins is <span>Casey McGehee</span>, who may be willing to be imported after a successful season in Japan. Wilson Betemit has also been mentioned in talks. One name that has resurfaced is <span>Will Middlebrooks</span>, whom the <a href="http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2013/12/15/sunball/7TLfhgHqOCHYLVgdeTYNXK/story.html">Marlins might be able to acquire in a trade</a> from the <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Boston Red Sox</a>. The problem is that the Sox have no need for the team's best trade asset, their copious starting pitching, and the Marlins would definitely not be willing to trade Giancarlo Stanton in a blockbuster move that would include Middlebrooks.</p>
<p>So thanks to Miami's moves this offseason, they have strengthened some of the roster but exposed a glaring weakness. This weakness is also limiting the team's next moves to acquire a third baseman. If the Fish cannot find a trade for a player who can play third base and can work at first base in the near future when top prospect Colin Moran arrives, the team may have to dig through the minor league scraps to find their 2014 third baseman who will not hurt the lefty weakness the team has.</p>
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https://www.fishstripes.com/2013/12/16/5214976/miami-marlins-free-agent-signings-cripple-lineup-versus-left-handersMichael Jong2013-12-09T12:00:11-05:002013-12-09T12:00:11-05:00Jones signing: Morrison trade critical to signing
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/MwM2wBI58-UXiYBWrPOmPywwqCE=/0x308:3006x2312/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/24765517/20130827_kkt_su8_065.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>The Miami Marlins are closing in on a deal with free agent first baseman Garrett Jones, but the success of that deal is directly tied to Miami's return on incumbent Logan Morrison.</p> <p>The <a href="https://www.fishstripes.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Miami Marlins</a> are trying to make the best out of the team's first base situation. The club is close to signing free agent <span>Garrett Jones</span> to a two-year contract to be the replacement for incumbent first baseman <span>Logan Morrison</span>. The plan for the Marlins is to send Morrison off in a trade, preferably to fill in any number of holes the team still has. The most dire need appears to be at third base, with the Fish apparently no longer interested in using in-house options like <span>Donovan Solano</span> or <span>Ed Lucas</span> as starters.</p>
<p>Morrison remains Miami's second-best trade chip behind its copious starting pitching, but it may be its most important trade piece as well. The <a href="http://www.fishstripes.com/2013/12/6/5183450/garrett-jones-signing-miami-marlins-analysis-first-base-logan-morrison-replacement">Garrett Jones signing was puzzling</a> to say the least, as Jones is older than Morrison and does not seem to be an upgrade over the 26-year-old former top prospect. On the surface, it simply appeared as though Miami chose to replace a younger player with potential for an older player with more certainty in his production. It was especially puzzling given the fact that Jones too did not have a strong season in 2013, batting just .233/.289/.419 (.309 wOBA) last year.</p>
<p>The lack of an upgrade at first base is exactly what makes the Morrison trade such an important one, even though Morrison's trade value has dramatically fallen over the last two years. The team's signing of Jones appears all but terrible as of right now, but a potential Morrison trade can redeem it. The return on this trade is the key to the Marlins' signing, because it could provide a source of upgrade at other positions without costing the Fish their coveted pitching prospects. So far, Miami is only interested in pulling the trigger on a pitching trade if it acquires young, cost-controlled options at problematic positions. It failed to find such a trade in the last few weeks, which is why the Fish decided to resolve second base and catcher with <span>Rafael Furcal</span> and <span>Jarrod Saltalamacchia</span> respectively.</p>
<p>That leaves Morrison as their only trade option for an upgrade at third base, where <a href="http://www.fishstripes.com/2013/12/6/5180732/rafael-furcal-free-agent-signing-miami-marlins-donovan-solano-ed-lucas-third-base">Solano and Lucas are currently battling for the position</a>. Because Morrison and Jones on a production basis are expected to be similar, the team likely loses nothing on the field with the switch. That makes the third base option the Marlins attempt to acquire with Morrison the actual prize of the signing. The signing frees up Morrison to be dealt, and if Miami can find the right trade for a player under team control for a few seasons, the Fish can at least justify signing the older Jones. Instead of strictly replacing one bad first baseman with another, Miami can say that it was creating a surplus to fill in a hole elsewhere.</p>
<p>Luckily for Miami, there appears to be <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2013/12/7/5186206/logan-morrison-marlins-trade-rumors-brewers">a lot of trade interest in Morrison</a>, with as many as 10 teams involved.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<p>Marlins 1B Logan Morrison drawing strong trade interest. Roughly 10 teams have checked in on him this offseason, source says. <a href="https://twitter.com/FOXSports1">@FOXSports1</a></p>
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) <a href="https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/statuses/409413865030811649">December 7, 2013</a>
</blockquote>
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<p>With so much interest from teams currently lacking a first baseman, it appears as though Miami chose wisely to at least <a href="http://www.fishstripes.com/2013/11/29/5155226/miami-marlins-should-consider-trading-first-baseman-logan-morrison">consider trading Morrison</a>. One prominent trade option among the rumors around Morrison involves <a href="https://www.draysbay.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Tampa Bay Rays</a> utility man <span>Sean Rodriguez</span>, who is a strong defensive option at third base. Unfortunately for Miami, Rodriguez has also struggled at the plate (career .228/.304/.360 batting line), and Miami's interest specifically lies with upgrading its offensive production.</p>
<p>The replacing of Morrison in Miami is only worthwhile if the Fish can get a strong return for him in the trade market. Miami is seeking only a temporary replacement at third base, as its long-term future at the position is still top draft pick Colin Moran. If Miami cannot find a decent short-term replacement, then the Jones signing can be deemed a complete failure. Miami needs to beat one-win options like Solano at third, so the Fish should look for an upgrade beyond that level of play. If the team cannot, the Jones signing will remain perplexing and ultimately disappointing.</p>
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https://www.fishstripes.com/2013/12/9/5189872/garrett-jones-signing-logan-morrison-trade-critical-to-marlins-signingMichael Jong2013-12-06T18:37:48-05:002013-12-06T18:37:48-05:00Jones signing: Replacement first baseman flawed
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/kUgLDPb1YWLfSmvcJafyNLJMTeU=/0x50:2700x1850/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/24639291/177611191.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Thearon W. Henderson</figcaption>
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<p>The Miami Marlins appear close to signing Garrett Jones to a two-year contract to replace Logan Morrison. The problem is that Jones is essentially an older version of Morrison.</p> <p>The <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.fishstripes.com/">Miami Marlins</a> are closing in on signing <span>Garrett Jones</span> to a two-year contract worth $7.5 million. Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun-Sentinel shows the breakdown of the deal.</p>
<blockquote lang="en" class="twitter-tweet">
<p><a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Marlins&src=hash">#Marlins</a> close on a two-year, $7.5M deal with 1Bman Garrett Jones. He would make $2.5M in '14 and $5M in '15.</p>
— Juan C. Rodriguez (@JCRMarlinsbeat) <a href="https://twitter.com/JCRMarlinsbeat/statuses/409047112152657921">December 6, 2013</a>
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<p>When Marlins fans first heard abut this deal, their first thought was probably that <span>Logan Morrison</span> is on his way out, and sure enough, it seems as though Miami will "likely" trade Morrison now that Jones is in the fold. Their second thought was probably along the lines of "why Garrett Jones?"</p>
<div class="read-more">
<strong>More Marlins Hot Stove</strong>: <a href="http://www.fishstripes.com/2013/12/6/5183366/marlins-rumors-miami-likely-to-trade-logan-morrison-due-to-garrett" target="new">Marlins to trade Morrison</a> <a href="http://www.fishstripes.com/2013/12/5/5180716/miami-marlins-free-agent-signing-rafael-furcal-one-year-contract" target="new">Furcal signs one-year deal</a> <a href="http://www.fishstripes.com/2013/12/5/5180716/miami-marlins-free-agent-signing-rafael-furcal-one-year-contract" target="new">Marlins seek offense</a>
</div>
<p>And that is a good question, Marlins fans, because Garrett Jones is neither an improvement nor much of a great options at first base for Miami when compared to Morrison.</p>
<h5>That Power</h5>
<p>The Marlins probably saw in Jones a power bat that could help the team's paltry home run total. Miami hit fewer than 100 homers as a team last season, and while some of that was the home-run suppression by Marlins Park, a lot of that was a distinct lack of talent. Garrett Jones comes to Miami with a reputation for nice power, as he has hit 24 home runs per 600 plate appearances for his career. Jones's career home run per fly ball (HR/FB) rate of 14 percent is better than all but two players with at least 400 plate appearances on the Marlins from 2011 to 2013.</p>
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<a href="http://www.fishstripes.com/2013/12/5/5180558/rafael-furcal-signing-free-agent-signing-miami-marlins-stopgap-analysis">
<h2>Rafael Furcal signing: Marlins buy time with stopgap</h2>
<img src="http://cdn3.sbnation.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/24589043/150846746.0_standard_352.0.jpg"></a> <span>The Marlins bought time for Derek Dietrich with a stopgap in Rafael Furcal, but was he better than the other in-house options?</span>
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<p>That Jones can hit it out of the park is not in question, especially since he comes from a stadium that also suppresses homers. While only AT&T Park works on lefties as ruthlessly as Marlins Park, PNC Park is no cakewalk for lefty power swings. The park factor for PNC Park is at 93 for lefty home runs, meaning it suppresses homers about seven percent compared to the average stadium. Miami's park factor at this time is at 86, which means that it should suppress about seven <i>more</i> percent off of Jones's total. From his pace of 24 homers per 600 plate appearances, we could expect a drop down to <i>22 home runs</i><b> </b>in that same time span. A loss of two home runs a season does not seem too terrible, though that is approximately three runs knocked off per year.</p>
<h5>That (Equal) Bat</h5>
<p>The problem is that, despite the added power, Jones is not any better than Morrison, at least when it comes to the 2014 season. Take a look at their career numbers and their projections for next season.</p>
<table border="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<th>Player</th> <th>AVG</th> <th>OBP</th> <th>SLG</th> <th>wOBA</th> <th>WAR/600</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Garrett Jones, Career</td>
<td>.254</td>
<td>.316</td>
<td>.458</td>
<td>.333</td>
<td>1.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>Garrett Jones, 2014 Proj</b></td>
<td><b>.251</b></td>
<td><b>.312</b></td>
<td><b>.445</b></td>
<td><b>.329</b></td>
<td><b>1.5</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Logan Morrison, Career</td>
<td>.249</td>
<td>.337</td>
<td>.427</td>
<td>.335</td>
<td>0.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>Logan Morrison, 2014 Proj</b></td>
<td><b>.250</b></td>
<td><b>.341</b></td>
<td><b>.424</b></td>
<td><b>.334</b></td>
<td><b>1.3</b></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>In bold are the projections for next season. As you can see, the Marlins should expect to get <i style="font-weight: bold;">about the same performance</i> offensively from Jones and Morrison. Jones has more power, as he is projected to hit 21 homers in 553 plate appearances (19 if adjusted according to FanGraphs' park factors for Miami) versus Morrison's 15 or 16 in the same number of plate appearances.</p>
<p>But that difference in power production is made up for by Morrison's ability to get on base. There is a 30 point difference between Jones's and Morrison's OBPs, and that number is significant. In 553 plate appearances, the difference between those times on base is <i style="font-weight: bold;">16 times</i>. Assuming many of those are walks (Jones's projected walk rate is around eight percent versus Morrisons' 11.4 percent), that is a difference of <i style="font-weight: bold;">almost five runs</i>. Compare that to the home run disparity, which in Miami would probably be equivalent to <i style="font-weight: bold;">almost six runs</i>.</p>
<p> </p>
<div class="pullquote">Essentially. those two differences even out, and Morrison and Jones are pretty much expected to produce similar results offensively.</div>
<p>Essentially. those two differences even out, and Morrison and Jones are pretty much expected to produce similar results offensively. Even if Jones is a better defender, the win difference is not drastic. Morrison should get some playing time docked off for being oft-injured, but even if Jones is a half-win better than Morrison, there is still a question as to why Miami opted for the older Jones (33 years old in the 2014 season) over the 26-year-old Morrison.</p>
<h5>Platoon Issues</h5>
<p>Jones has an additional concern that is even more evident in his game than it is in Morrison's. For his career, Jones has a massive platoon split.</p>
<table border="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<th>Jones, Career</th> <th>PA</th> <th>AVG</th> <th>OBP</th> <th>SLG</th> <th>wOBA</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>vs. RHP</td>
<td>2003</td>
<td>.271</td>
<td>.337</td>
<td>.489</td>
<td>.355</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>vs. LHP</td>
<td>526</td>
<td>.193</td>
<td>.234</td>
<td>.344</td>
<td>.252</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>That is a larger split than we discussed with <span>Jarrod Saltalamacchia</span> when he signed earlier this week. Against righties for his career, he has hit like <span>Ryan Zimmerman</span> or <span>Shane Victorino</span> did last season, complete with passable batting averages and OBP. Against lefties, he hit like <span>Jeff Mathis</span> has hit <i>for his career</i>. The Marlins may already be suiting up Mathis against left-handed pitching next season with Saltalamacchia's troubling splits. The team probably should not add Jones's struggles to the problem.</p>
<p>I have Jones projected to hit a <i style="font-weight: bold;">.287 wOBA</i> against left-handers next season, which is essentially what <span>Ed Lucas</span> did against all pitchers last year. In comparison, Logan Morrison has a more even career split and is projected to hit a .314 wOBA versus lefties next year. Jones is probably not as bad as Saltalamacchia against lefties simply because he is a better hitter, but he is poor enough that he probably should have a platoon partner. But Miami does not have great in-house platoon options and probably should not pay more salary for another bench player to take on the role. The Fish already have <span>Greg Dobbs</span> as the team's bat-only bench presence, Miami probably cannot afford another bench spot to a first base-type who cannot move around the infield or outfield.</p>
<p> </p>
<div class="pullquote">The Marlins may already be suiting up Mathis against left-handed pitching next season with Saltalamacchia's troubling splits. The team probably should not add Jones's struggles to the problem.</div>
<h5>Defensive Flexibility</h5>
<p>Jones does hold some flexibility of his own in the sense that he can play an acceptable, if below average outfield for Miami in a pinch. Given the Fish's injury problems for <span>Giancarlo Stanton</span>, it may come up for the team to have to move Jones out to right field, an area where he was mediocre for most of his Major League career.</p>
<p>The problem with that notion is that Miami already has significant outfield depth in prospects <span>Christian Yelich</span>, <span>Marcell Ozuna</span>, and <span>Jake Marisnick</span> along with <span>Justin Ruggiano</span>, who is currently slated to play a fourth outfield role. If a Stanton injury occurs, it is much more likely that Miami fits in Ruggiano at the position rather than turning to the less defensively-capable Jones.</p>
<h5>Value</h5>
<p>As mentioned above, Jones is likely to be a decent platoon player or a quality bench bat, but he is obviously stretched as a full-time starter. Depending on which projection you like out of the two currently available ones on FanGraphs, he is either a lower-tier borderline starter or a useless piece. If you take the middle ground, you probably can talk yourself into seeing Jones as a <i style="font-weight: bold;">one-win player </i>in 2014.</p>
<p> </p>
<div class="pullquote">The ultimate judge of this trade may be what Miami gets in return for Morrison in a trade, because the signing to replace the younger first baseman seems completely puzzling and useless right now.</div>
<p>The problem is that Miami's contract signs him through 2015, and the 2015 dollar value is at $5 million. Even if he remains a one-win player for a full season, Jones is probably worth the contract. However, that just tells you that Jones was an extremely low-paid piece, earning an average salary akin to that of Rafael Furcal. When you pay that little, you expect bench production, and that is what Miami is getting at a full-time level. Of course, Miami is cash-strapped and probably could have used that money a little more wisely. In addition, the second year seemed completely pointless for a player who was just recently designated for assignment and non-tendered. In comparison, J,P. Arencibia is receiving a $1.8 million, one-year deal while playing a more defensively-important position.</p>
<p>Like the Furcal signing yesterday, Miami's deal with Jones is low-risk and low-reward. Unfortunately, the contract's second year ups the risk more than the reward given Jones's age, and the production is can barely be discerned from Miami's in-house option. The ultimate judge of this trade may be what Miami gets in return for Morrison in a trade, because the signing to replace the younger first baseman seems completely puzzling and useless right now.</p>
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https://www.fishstripes.com/2013/12/6/5183450/garrett-jones-signing-miami-marlins-analysis-first-base-logan-morrison-replacementMichael Jong2013-12-06T16:57:41-05:002013-12-06T16:57:41-05:00Marlins rumors: Morrison "likely" to be traded
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<img alt="Logan Morrison's time as a Marlin appears finished." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/xe6m6A4pfLTDMJahbYrLzPrrZA0=/0x287:2648x2052/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/24637387/178357933.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Logan Morrison's time as a Marlin appears finished. | Greg Fiume</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>With Garrett Jones potentially joining the Miami marlins for two years at $7.5 million, the Fish will look to ship incumbent first baseman Logan Morrison to one of a slew of potential suitors.</p> <p>The <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.fishstripes.com/">Miami Marlins</a> are approaching what appears to be an imminent signing of free agent first baseman <span>Garrett Jones</span>. Jones, a 32-year-old lefty first baseman with a career .254/.316/.458 (.333 wOBA) batting line, appears slated to play first base for the Marlins for the next two seasons. Thus, the Fish appear ready to replace their incumbent first baseman, 24-year-old lefty <span>Logan Morrison</span>, with the older, more powerful version of himself.</p>
<p>Morrison, a career .249/.337/.427 (.333 wOBA) hitter, seems destined to be dealt, and a number of teams may be interested. Miami has already heard from <a href="http://www.fishstripes.com/2013/12/2/5166448/miami-marlins-rumors-logan-morrison-trade-milwaukee-brewers-interested">potential suitors in the GM meetings</a>, including the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.brewcrewball.com/">Milwaukee Brewers</a>. The Marlins are "likely" to trade Morrison according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.</p>
<blockquote lang="en" class="twitter-tweet">
<p>Source: Marlins will "likely" look to trade Logan Morrison now that Garrett Jones signing is imminent.</p>
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) <a href="https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/statuses/409072500207665152">December 6, 2013</a>
</blockquote>
<p>
<script charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script></p>
<p>You have to sort of question Miami's motives with this move. Morrison is the younger of the two players and has the better upside, so why would Miami opt to sign someone more likely to do <i>worse</i> than Morrison to replace him at first base? Morrison has previously gotten into spats with the franchise, most notably in 2011, when the franchise demoted him shortly after he missed a non-mandatory team photo op earlier in the day. The team has also attempted to silence <a href="https://twitter.com/LoMoMarlins">LoMo's significantly boisterous and entertaining Twitter account</a>, which has previously gotten him into media trouble.</p>
<p>But Morrison's biggest crime is his work on the field. As a former top prospect, he has failed to live up to the hype and has been oft-injured enough to cause Miami concern. Still, one would think a team on the rebuild would opt for Morrison's youth versus Jones's sure-fire mediocrity, so it remains to be seen what Miami will spin from a potential Morrison trade.</p>
<p>Stay tuned here at Fish Stripes for all the details on this transaction and more.</p>
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https://www.fishstripes.com/2013/12/6/5183366/marlins-rumors-miami-likely-to-trade-logan-morrison-due-to-garrettMichael Jong2013-12-06T14:53:31-05:002013-12-06T14:53:31-05:00Marlins rumors: Miami, Jones close to 2-year deal
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/FaoicLRUJhxBsSE6fRrIgQxVfQ0=/0x38:4000x2705/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/24628915/183007835.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Elsa</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Miami Marlins are not done shopping yet, as they may be approaching a two-year deal with free agent first baseman Garrett Jones as a potential replacement for Logan Morrison.</p> <p>When the <a href="https://www.fishstripes.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Miami Marlins</a> shop, they shop <i>hard</i>.</p>
<p>The Fish signed <span>Jarrod Saltalamacchia</span> to a three-year contract just a few days ago in the busiest offseason day ever, but Miami has remained busy since then. <span>Rafael Furcal</span> received a one-year deal last night, and this afternoon Miami is closing in on yet another target before the Winter Meetings arrive. The Fish are said to be close to a two-year contract with free agent first baseman <span>Garrett Jones</span>, first reported by FOX Sports's Ken Rosenthal.</p>
<blockquote lang="en" class="twitter-tweet">
<p>Source: <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Marlins&src=hash">#Marlins</a> closing in on 1B Garrett Jones. Could be two-year deal.</p>
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/statuses/409030692736352256">December 6, 2013</a>
</blockquote>
<p>
<script charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script></p>
<p>Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reported that the deal is in the two-year, $7-8 million range.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<p>Marlins will pay Garrett Jones between $7M and $8M total in the two year deal, by the way.Hit .233,15,51 in 2013 but .274,27,86 in 2012.</p>
— Barry Jackson (@flasportsbuzz) <a href="https://twitter.com/flasportsbuzz/statuses/409037576876462080">December 6, 2013</a>
</blockquote>
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<script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Since Jones's rookie season in 2009, his best season at the plate was in 2012, when he hit .274/.317/.516 (.352 wOBA). Jones's work at the plate, however, is hardly up to a first baseman's pedigree, as he owns a career .254/.316/.458 (.333 wOBA) batting line. He does, however, provide power in the form of 102 homers in 2529 plate appearances, a rate of 24 homers per 600 plate appearances. The Marlins may be interested in his power hitting to supplement the lineup.</p>
<p>This may also spell the end of <span>Logan Morrison's</span> time with the Fish, as <a href="http://www.fishstripes.com/2013/12/2/5166448/miami-marlins-rumors-logan-morrison-trade-milwaukee-brewers-interested">there was trade interest in Morrison</a> during the GM meetings. Miami may be able to extract value from Morrison and spend a small amount of money replacing him with Jones at first base, as both players are left-handed and a platoon would not be ideal.</p>
<p>Stay tuned to Fish Stripes for more coverage of this potential move.</p>
<p><b>UPDATE: </b>Juan C. Rodrgiguez of the Sun-Sentinel has the potential contract details, with the two sides still working out the final parts of the deal.</p>
<blockquote lang="en" class="twitter-tweet">
<p><a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Marlins&src=hash">#Marlins</a> close on a two-year, $7.5M deal with 1Bman Garrett Jones. He would make $2.5M in '14 and $5M in '15.</p>
— Juan C. Rodriguez (@JCRMarlinsbeat) <a href="https://twitter.com/JCRMarlinsbeat/statuses/409047112152657921">December 6, 2013</a>
</blockquote>
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https://www.fishstripes.com/2013/12/6/5182918/marlins-rumors-miami-garrett-jones-close-to-two-year-contractMichael Jong