Fish Stripes - Marlins acquire Dan Straily from Reds in four player dealCovering the Marlins every day in our own wayhttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/52814/Screen_Shot_2018-12-07_at_12.32.35_PM..png2017-01-19T20:14:08-05:00http://www.fishstripes.com/rss/stream/140872272017-01-19T20:14:08-05:002017-01-19T20:14:08-05:00Dan Straily has a home run problem
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<figcaption>Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Great American Ballpark may not have been the only cause of Straily’s home run issue in 2016</p> <p id="YH4vLR">Dan Straily is now a Miami Marlin, so it’s time to stop worrying about the trade and start trying to project just how valuable he will be to the 2017 Marlins.</p>
<p id="FHx7dp">The big question mark around Straily is, and likely always will be, his home run problem. During 2012, his rookie season in Oakland, he started seven games and pitched 39.1 innings. In that time frame, he gave up 11 home runs or 2.52 HRs per 9 innings. Since then, things have gone a little bit better, though not as much as one would hope.</p>
<p id="JTcfYQ">In 2016, Straily started 31 games and pitched 191.1 innings. Stop there for a second: Be excited about those numbers. Only 30 pitchers reached the 190 IP plateau last season and no Marlin has done it since 2014. Pitching 190 innings is an accomplishment to be celebrated, even if his 1.2 fWAR ranked dead last among that group.</p>
<p id="9mDpTh">Now for the bad news. In those innings, Straily gave up 31 home runs, tied for first in the NL. There is conciliation to be found in the fact that the pitcher he tied with was Max Scherzer, but remember, Scherzer pitched quite a few more innings than Straily. When looking at HR/IP Straily stands at 1.46, second in the NL, behind only fellow Red Brandon Finnegan.</p>
<p id="7oQHEy">Having two Reds at the top of that list might suggest that this might be a result of the ballpark that team plays in. True, Great American Ballpark is an extremely hitter friendly park. FanGraphs park factors ranking lists Reds as playing in the most Home Run heavy park in the MLB (tied with the Rockies). So that settles it right? A move to the cavernous Marlins Park will surely put an end to Straily’s issue and he will be a dominant starter. Not exactly.</p>
<p id="K8aMcC"> There’s quite a bit of evidence that there is something more going on here than just an unfriendly ballpark. Consider, for instance, Straily’s batted ball splits from last season. </p>
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<p id="RDIUXf">Home Runs were less of an issue when Straily was at home last season than when he was on the road. Great American is a tiny park, no doubt it had some impact on his propensity for giving up Home Runs, but it’s not fair to say it was the sole cause. </p>
<p id="eaXucW">Defenders and those who like to look on the bright side will be quick to point out that despite these home run issues, Straily posted a solid 3.76 ERA last year. While the fan in me shares this optimism, the analyst can’t help but notice a few factors that suggest that number is smoke and mirrors. </p>
<p id="LAhamI">For one, Straily had a 4.88 FIP (fielding independent pitching), a stat which attempts to estimate a player's ERA based only on things which the pitcher has control over. Again we have a good news-bad news situation.</p>
<p id="t11rL8"> The good news is that FIP is partially affected by the quality of the fielders behind the pitcher. In this case, the Marlins (+14 DRS) are a significant improvement over the Reds (-25). In 2017, Straily can expect to see a lot more hits turned into outs than he has in the past.</p>
<p id="10DhaZ">The bad news is that FIP is also a measurement of walk rate and sequencing luck, both of which are massive flashing red lights hanging above Dan Straily’s head.</p>
<p id="mVpnQC">Last season, Straily’s walk rate was 3.43 per nine innings, and his WHIP was 1.12. He puts a lot of runners on base is what you should be getting from that. Despite that, he had a whopping 81.2 percent strand rate, up from a career 74.3 percent. That kind of number just isn’t sustainable. It can be debated just how much regression is to be expected, but it’s a safe bet that more runners will be getting home on Straily in the future. </p>
<p id="vc8yj5">Further bad news, Straily had remarkable luck when it came to the timing of his home runs allowed. Of his 31 HR against, 24 were solo shots. Another six happened with two runners on base, leaving only one home run hit with two runners on base. Given how many frequently Straily puts runners on base, it’s easy to imagine that ERA ballooning to an ugly extent should his luck slip jut a little.</p>
<p id="WJtM02">All things considered, Straily is likely an upgrade to the Marlins rotation. Add in Locke’s addition to a bullpen in desperate need of a lefty and there are reasons to like this trade. However, there are a lot of signs suggesting a regression in the coming season. </p>
https://www.fishstripes.com/2017/1/19/14329340/marlins-dan-straily-home-run-problemChristianLaFontaine2017-01-19T15:13:06-05:002017-01-19T15:13:06-05:00Straily trade adds to concerning pattern from Marlins front office
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<figcaption>Photo by Rob Foldy/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>The Marlins have lost on too many trades. </p> <p id="P7Yo2o">Before I start this, it has to be known that nothing I write here is a knock on Dan Straily. The right-hander is coming off of the best season of his career. His 3.76 ERA in 2016 was the best of his career in a season in which he pitched a career-high 191 <sup>1</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub> innings. </p>
<p id="EBMWpX">He held opponents to a career-low .218 batting average last season with the Reds and his 2.22 strikeout-to-walk ratio was also a career-best. </p>
<p id="eZiOMQ">Straily had a great season and could be a a pivotal piece in the Marlins’ rotation in 2017, but what Miami gave up for the 28-year-old is a bit concerning. Despite Straily’s stellar 2016, he as only had real starting success for one year, and that year still wasn’t up to the level of a top two or three starting pitcher. </p>
<p id="CvqcIg">The Marlins sent two of their top pitching prospects, Luis Castillo and Austin Brice, and a lower level outfield prospect, Isaiah White, to the Reds for Straily on Thursday. </p>
<p id="fNTIty">Castillo may have been the Marlins best pitching prospect last season. He pitched to a 2.07 ERA in Single-A ball and posted an incredible 5.06 strikeout-to-walk ratio. </p>
<p id="4SEu32">Brice threw 14 innings in the big leagues for the Marlins last year without much success, but he did have a lot of success in the minors. He posted a 1.04 ERA in Triple-A and a 2.89 ERA in Double-A and allowed opposing batters to hit below .230 at both levels. </p>
<p id="N2zZ7W">Miami will now hope that Straily works out as a solid piece in the rotation, but also that the prospects they gave up do not yet again become productive major league players. </p>
<p id="Q8x7Df">The Marlins are no strangers to losing out on big trades in their history, but they have also made a number of smaller trades in the past few years that haven’t panned out. This most recent trade has the makings of another possible failure of a trade.</p>
<p id="EXz5Lm">A recent day that comes to mind is Dec. 11, 2014, which is the day the Marlins pulled off two trades that both worked out better for the other teams involved. There was first the deal with the Dodgers in which the Marlins sent Austin Barnes, Chris Hatcher, Andrew Heaney, and Enrique Hernandez to Los Angeles for Dee Gordon, Dan Haren, and Miguel Rojas.</p>
<p id="IE13nH">All four players the Marlins sent to LA have appeared in the majors. Hatcher and Hernandez have been great pieces for the Dodgers, while Heaney was immediately traded to Los Angeles (Angels), where he has thrived as a starting pitcher. On the Marlins’ side, Gordon has had success but had a disappointing 2016, Haren is now retired, and Rojas is a mere defensive replacement. </p>
<p id="hXH5I3">The Marlins then traded starting pitcher Anthony DeSclafani and another minor-leaguer to the Reds for Mat Latos. Latos is no longer in Miami and has regressed since the trade, while DeSclafani has had two consecutive productive seasons with the Reds. The 26-year-old would be a centerpiece of the Marlins rotation if he were still in Miami. </p>
<p id="ElSJIB">Miami also made two other trades at the 2015 trade deadline that they arguably lost. The Marlins sent left-handed pitcher Grant Dayton to the Dodgers and right-handed pitcher Sam Dyson to the Rangers. Dayton was one of the best bullpen lefties down the stretch last season, and Dyson became the closer for a division-winner. </p>
<p id="Lllc9u">Chris Reed, who the Marlins received for Dayton, has struggled in the minors, and Tomas Telis and Cody Edge, who came to Miami in the Dyson deal, have had trouble breaking into the big leagues despite their talent. </p>
<p id="BVD8at">If Miami’s bullpen still contained Dayton and Dyson, they likely would not have had to spend as much money on relief pitching this offseason. </p>
<p id="AGKmHm">Then of course there was the 2016 deadline deal that originally sent Castillo along with Carter Capps, Josh Naylor and Jarred Cosart to the Padres for Andrew Cashner and Colin Rea. The Marlins eventually sent Rea back to San Diego and got Castillo back, but they still lost Capps and Cosart. Capps has an electric fastball and was called one of toughest relievers to hit by David Ortiz. Cosart is coming off of an arm injury but still projects to have success in the big leagues. Cashner, on the other hand, struggled in Miami and has since left in free agency.</p>
<p id="SccNxZ">None of these trades were truly necessary for Miami. They tried to go for it all last season, but the Marlins needed a better starter than Cashner, and they gave up too much for him. With an already-depleted farm system, the Marlins have now decided to ship away two of their most promising minor league pitchers. </p>
<p id="VqAiiu">Hopefully this Dan Straily trade works out, but if it doesn’t, the Marlins will be continuing down this path of poor trades. Miami’s winning window is slowly closing, and with all of these trades, they now have very little in the farm system to continue the success. If Miami doesn’t stop making rough trade after rough trade, the Marlins’ future will be in big trouble. </p>
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https://www.fishstripes.com/2017/1/19/14327282/marlins-straily-trade-front-officeConnor Newcomb2017-01-19T10:16:59-05:002017-01-19T10:16:59-05:00Marlins overpay for Dan Straily
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<figcaption>Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Sometimes you have to give a lot to get a lot.</p> <p id="kO42QU">Perhaps there is something about former <a href="https://www.redreporter.com/">Reds</a> starting pitcher <span>Dan Straily</span>, the 28-year old the <a href="https://www.fishstripes.com/">Marlins</a> acquired Thursday morning, that we don’t know. </p>
<p id="dfvwr7">Miami made one of the biggest moves of its offseason Thursday, acquiring Straily in exchange for three <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb-minors-prospects">minor league prospects</a>, all of which are among Miami’s top 16 (per MLBPipeline.com), notables in a system deemed one of the worst in baseball. </p>
<p id="7vTc2o">Since the Winter Meetings, the Marlins have been reportedly seeking more pitching depth. It seemed signing a major league veteran or two to minor league deals was all that would happen between now and the start of Spring Training. After all, the club built a “super bullpen” of sorts for a reason. </p>
<p id="OOqDTj">You can pick your reason for why this trade doesn’t really make sense, because there are plenty to choose from. On the surface, the deal doesn’t align with Miami’s offseason goal. If the objective was to put together the best bullpen possible, what value is there in adding a middle-tier starting pitcher? </p>
<p id="eSltbW">Dig a bit deeper and you will realize the Marlins don’t really have a rotation spot for Straily. They can easily create one by sending <span>Jeff Locke</span> to the bullpen, also adding a valuable lefty arm to that unit. Though there isn’t such a thing as too much starting depth, the Marlins have quite a few arms to consider. </p>
<p id="ClsCfz">Then, you can wonder if the Marlins overpaid, which by all indications, they seemed to. They were fortunate to receive pitching prospect <span>Luis Castillo</span> back in the failed <span>Colin Rea</span> deal with San Diego last summer, but packaging <span>Castillo</span>, <span>Austin Brice</span> and Isaiah White for a few years of Straily seems a bit extreme. </p>
<p id="WX5Ifx">There were major league clubs <a href="https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/822084829126729728">willing to send</a> the Marlins a major league starting pitcher in exchange for just <span>Castillo</span> at the trade deadline, according to SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo. With such a package, the fact the Marlins are only receiving Straily, who has pitched to an ERA below four just three times in his career, is notable. </p>
<p id="MMXaGA">Straily will add valuable depth, and it’s very possible he improves the Marlins rotation entering 2017. And, as it always is, it’s important to note prospects are just that until they prove to be effective major league players. However, at the very least, <span>Castillo</span> is reportedly expected to pitch in the majors in some capacity this season. </p>
<p id="9ncIig">Give the Marlins credit, because the fact they made this deal again proves that this organization is confident in its core and wants to win now. It proves they aren’t looking ahead and want to field a competitive team after falling just short last season. </p>
<p id="YmOjLP">But we already knew the Marlins were in “win now” mode, and we know how they feel about their core. Straily could end up having the best numbers of any Marlins starter next season. At this point in time, though, this trade doesn’t seem to fit. </p>
https://www.fishstripes.com/2017/1/19/14323248/marlins-dan-straily-trade-bad-timingScott Gelman2017-01-19T09:46:09-05:002017-01-19T09:46:09-05:00Marlins acquire Dan Straily
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<figcaption>David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Miami added another arm to its staff Thursday.</p> <p id="lXXEjp">The Marlins <a href="https://twitter.com/JoeFrisaro/status/822079086554206208">acquired</a> Reds pitcher Dan Straily in exchange for minor leaguers Luis Castillo, Austin Brice and Isaiah White on Thursday, according to MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. </p>
<p id="1Xbc67">Straily, 28, had a productive 2016 season with the Reds, posting a 3.76 ERA and 4.88 FIP over 191.1 innings. Though his career ERA is 4.24, Straily has shown signs of being consistent, specifically in the first two years of his major league career. </p>
<p id="XOYFxc">Straily isn’t eligible for free agency until 2021 and will likely join Miami’s starting rotation entering 2017. </p>
<p id="J0DP4F">Though the Marlins landed one of the better available arms, the club was forced to part with three of its top 16 prospects, according to MLB Pipeline rankings.</p>
<p id="OZuDJH">The Marlins were open to moving Luis Castillo in the Colin Rea trade with San Diego last winter before he ultimately was sent back to Miami. Castillo is a candidate to pitch in the majors this season and posted a 2.26 ERA over a combined 131.2 innings with Single and Double-A. </p>
<p id="y8zmgb">Brice struggled over 14 innings with the Marlins but had success in the minors, and White represented one of the few notable outfield prospects the Marlins have. </p>
https://www.fishstripes.com/2017/1/19/14323038/marlins-acquire-dan-strailyScott Gelman