Fish Stripes: All Posts by Nicole Cahill

Diving Into Jacob Stallings’ Defense

2021-12-04T08:00:00-05:00

Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images

The Marlins landed a Gold Glove catcher. Just how good is he?

The Miami Marlins traded for the National League’s 2021 Gold Glove catcher, Jacob Stallings, on Monday. Going back to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Stallings was pitcher Zach Thompson and two prospects, pitcher Kyle Nicolas and outfielder Connor Scott.

Stallings brings superb defense and an upgrade offensively to the Marlins, who relied on Jorge Alfaro and Sandy León for most of the 2021 season. Ely detailed the trade here and noted a few promising things the catcher brings offensively, particularly his pitch recognition. After pretty much nonexistent production out of their catchers this season, nearly anyone would be an upgrade offensively. Below are 2021 statistics from Alfaro, León, and Stallings.

Alfaro: 311 PA, 3.5 BB%, 31.8 K%, .244/.283/.342, 73 wRC+.
León: 220 PA, 5.5 BB%, 29.5 K%, .183/.237/.267, 42 wRC+.
Stallings: 427 PA, 11.5 BB%, 19.9 K%, .246/.335/.369, 95 wRC+.

Although this is a defensive-focused article, I thought the offensive numbers, which speak for themselves, were worth mentioning. Now, onto defense…

Versatile, super-utility players are my favorite, so I haven’t been shy about my appreciation for good defenders. I’ve covered Jon Berti’s past two season reviews (2020 and 2021) and talked about how much his flexibility meant to the Marlins. With the Marlins recent acquisition of infielder Joey Wendle, he might be my next focus.

I’ve also grown fond of good defensive catchers. For Pitcher List, I wrote Reframing the Concussion Discussion about former Pirate and Marlin backstop Francisco Cervelli. While the article was focused around how injuries may have aided in Cervelli’s progression from one of the best pitch framers in the game to one of the worst, I did a lot of research into the qualities good catchers possess and the different areas of catcher defense.

Stallings and Cervelli overlapped a bit during their careers in Pittsburgh, with both players donning the black and gold from 2016 to 2019. Stallings, however, only played a handful of games during those first few seasons. When he got his first chance to play semi-consistently with the big league club, it was because a concussion landed Cervelli on the injured list for 88 days. Because of Stallings being shuttled back and forth from the minor to major leagues and Cervelli’s shuffling to and from the injured list, they spent less time together than I initially thought. Still, I wanted to see what the two had in common.

A few Pirates pitcher threw to both Cervelli and Stallings during their career in Pittsburgh. Right-handed pitcher Chad Kuhl was one of those pitchers. In 2017, Kuhl told Adam Berry of MLB.com that he would go back and watching replays of pitches he threw to Cervelli and admitted that balls Cervelli framed for called strikes were not really strikes.

When Kuhl was asked recently about working with Stallings behind the plate, he told western Pennsylvania reporter Chris Adamski that Stallings is comparable to Cervelli because they share the characteristics that great defensive catchers have. Further, Kuhl explained to Adamski:

“Those guys who come and sit with you at the end of each inning or whenever you need it, Stallings has those qualities,” Kuhl said. “Obviously, he’s a good receiver. He’s just a good guy to have back there. And people just love throwing to him because he knows that from Pitch 1 to the end of the game that guy is locked in, and that’s why people love him.”

Whatever way you want to analyze Marlins’ catchers over the past few seasons, their numbers don’t come close to Stallings’ production during his recent seasons in Pittsburgh. Stallings representing the best NL catcher when winning the Gold Glove may have surprised you, but I’m certain his impact will be felt rather quickly.

The first picture below has two charts showing basic defensive statistics from 2019 to 2021. The top chart shows Stallings’ numbers and the bottom chart shows the Marlins’ catcher totals:

FanGraphs

Stallings didn’t play every day in 2019, so the counting statistics (passed balls and errors) are understandably much lower than the Marlins’ totals. He caught eight runners attempting to steal, the same amount the Marlins’ backup catchers caught in roughly the same amount of innings. 2020 was another small sample, but this time not just limited to Stallings. Because of the small sample size of just 60 games, we can’t conclude too much from 2020. We’ll just say his standard statistics matchup well with the Marlins’ totals.

The 102 games Stallings caught in 2021 were the most of his career. I don’t believe standard defensive statistics tell us much about how good a catcher really is, but the one important number to note is the big zero in the passed balls column. That’s right, Stallings did not allow one passed ball all season. That was a huge issue for Marlins catchers this year. Jorge Alfaro allowed 13 passed balls in less than 476 innings, which is roughly one every four games. Sandy León, Chad Wallach, and Nick Fortes each allowed four passed balls this season.

It’s unlikely that Stallings will uphold the high bar of zero passed balls from season to season, but Marlins pitchers will benefit from his ability to block anything in the dirt. This will give pitchers the confidence to unleash breaking pitches without having to fear they will skip by the catcher and allow baserunners to advance. This peace of mind will be vital for Miami’s young pitching staff.

The next picture again shows two tables, Stallings’ statistics on top and the Marlins’ totals on the bottom. These, however, are advanced defensive metrics. If you aren’t familiar with advanced defensive statistics, don’t fear! I’ll give you a quick primer of what to know for each column in the table.

We’ll be looking at what goes into a statistic you may have heard of, DRS (Defensive Runs Saved). DRS tries to capture a fielder’s total value in terms of runs better or worse than average. League average is 0 runs; a positive number indicates a fielder is better than average, a negative number means worse. You can read more about DRS on FanGraphs here, but I’ll end with a question they explore in the article.

Why should we use DRS? Run value defensive stats like DRS provide you with the best estimate of defensive value currently available, and allow you to estimate how much a player’s defense has helped his team win.

There are six statistics listed in the chart below that will help us compare Stallings’ defensive production to what the Marlins have received recently. If you’re a Marlins fan, this is probably where you’re going to get excited.

Strike Zone runs saved (rSZ): catchers can “steal” extra strikes by framing pitches.
Runs from catcher-ERA (rCERA): how a pitcher’s ERA change from catcher to catcher.
Stolen Base runs saved (rSB): catchers can control the running game by throwing out base stealers.
Runs from Great Fielding Plays (rGFP): catchers who consistently block balls in the dirt get credit here.
DRS: Defensive Runs Saved combines the four areas of catcher defense into one number signifying total defensive value.
FRM: Framing is calculated in different ways. “FRM” is FanGraphs’ version of how many extra strikes a catcher earns or loses for their pitcher, translated into runs. (rSZ is Sports Info Solution’s framing metric).

FanGraphs

The thing that probably jumps out at you when looking at Stallings numbers versus the Marlins totals is the 21 DRS Stallings had in 2021. Stallings not only led all catchers with the most defensive runs saved this season, but he also led all position players in DRS. He beat out notable defensive wizards Andrelton Simmons and Kevin Kiermaier easily.

A good chunk of that total came from the nine runs earned on “great fielding plays.” This makes sense considering Stallings didn’t allow a passed ball all season.

Additionally, Pirates pitchers had the most success when throwing to Stallings. Their earned run average, split up by catcher, is: Stallings, 4.88; Michael Pérez, 5.40; Taylor Davis, 6.19. This ability to affect his pitchers’ earned run average in a positive way is reflected in the four runs from catcher-ERA.

Stallings did not save or cost the Pirates any runs regarding the running game. His caught stealing rate was around league average, having thrown out 12 of the 57 runners attempting to steal on him.

Looking at runs saved via the strike zone and FanGraphs’ version of framing, the two values agree Stallings is above average in this department. The Marlins have historically struggled to find good framing catchers. 2021 was, coincidentally, an outlier.

When asked about his approach to receiving pitches last year, Stallings told MLB Network’s Carlos Peña that he aims to have good body position, keep the angle of his glove horizontal while catching the ball, and consistently bring pitches back to the middle of the plate.

Besides bringing proven success defensively, some say the best trait Stallings possesses is his ability to form relationships with his pitchers. This was clear in Pittsburgh, with Joe Musgrove acknowledging the various efforts the backstop made to connect with pitchers and gain their trust, and Chris Archer requesting Stallings be his personal catcher.

The Marlins have had a revolving door behind the plate with many catchers entering, but very few providing positive value. Miami’s young staff will benefit from working with Gold Glove catcher Jacob Stallings this season and beyond.

2021 Marlins Season Review: Starling Marte

2021-11-24T17:00:00-05:00

Photo by Tommy Gilligan/USA TODAY Sports

Will Marte and the Marlins reunite after the team traded him to Oakland in July?

Starling Marte’s time in Miami lasted only 331 days. Once the team and player could not agree to an extension, the Marlins decided that trading their center fielder and most productive bat was the best move. Marte’s trade to the Oakland A’s at the mid-season deadline deflated the team’s lineup, leaving the offense decimated after Garrett Cooper sustained a season-ending injury and Adam Duvall was traded to the Atlanta Braves.

2021 Timeline

April 1-April 18: .310/.414/.483, 148 wRC+, 11.4 BB%, 20.0 K%, 47.0 HardHit% in 16 games.
April 20: Marte goes on the injured list with a left rib fracture.

Here's the Starling Marte at-bat where he left tonight's game with an apparent injury#JuntosMiami #MLB #SFvsMIA pic.twitter.com/U4ISN8j8CW
— Bally Sports Florida: Marlins (@BallyMarlins) April 18, 2021

May 28-July 27: After more than a month on the injured list, Marte returned and continued to produce at a high level. Marte’s statistics after returning from the IL: .303/.402/.440, 134 wRC+, 11.7 BB%, 21.0 K%, 35.0 HardHit% in 48 games.
July 28: Traded to Oakland A’s for Jesús Luzardo. Marte’s statistics with A’s: .316/.359/.466, 130 wRC+, 4.4 BB%, 16.7 K%, 41.0 HardHit% in 56 games.
November: Marte becomes a free agent.

By The Numbers

After a Golden Sombrero on Opening Day, Marte recorded back-to-back three and four hit games and continued to support Miami’s offense before his injury on April 18. He appeared to injure himself on a swing in the ninth-inning of the game, wincing and grabbing his left side. The team wanted to be cautious with Marte and removed him from the game in the middle of the at-bat. What ended up being a fractured rib sidelined the center fielder for over a month. Up to that point, Marte had played in all of the Marlins’ 16 games to start the season. He hit two home runs, stole three bases, and held an .897 OPS.

FanGraphs

After his 35-game absence, Marte returned to the Marlins lineup and picked up where he left off. He recorded two three-hit and two four-hit games in June. He scuffled a bit in July, going 5-for-35 over a 10 game span with 16 strikeouts. He flipped the switch in the second game of a mid-July doubleheader with three extra base hits. In the 10 games before he was traded, Marte went 18-for-38 and drove in 7 runs.

Marte’s 2021 with the Marlins ended after 64 games. He wound up slashing .305/.405/.451 with seven home runs and 22 stolen bases prior to being traded. The only other batters to play at least that many games for the Marlins in a single season while reaching base safely more than 40% of the time? Miguel Cabrera, Luis Castillo, Cliff Floyd, Hanley Ramírez, Cody Ross and Gary Sheffield.

Marte was the team’s most productive offensive player at the time of his trade, contributing 47 wRC (weighted runs created) in 275 plate appearances. Although he played zero games for the Marlins after July 27, his 47 wRC was the fourth-most for the Marlins all season. The only players who created more runs were Jesús Aguilar (70 wRC in 510 PA), Miguel Rojas (64 wRC in 539 PA), and Jazz Chisholm Jr. (61 wRC in 507 PA).

Highlights!

Where will free agency take Starling Marte?

The 33-year-old center fielder is one of the bigger free-agent names this offseason and is drawing interest from multiple teams. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reported the possibility that Marte signs before the impending lockout set to begin on Dec. 1. The Marlins, like many teams, have shown interest and need to fill the glaring hole in center field. Per Heyman, however, the “Marlins offer lags behind some others” (SportsGrid’s Craig Mish has been hearing the same thing). Besides the Fish, he says the Phillies, Yankees, Mets, Astros, Rangers, and Giants are other teams who are looking to ink Marte.

2021 Marlins Season Review: Pablo López

2021-11-16T12:00:00-05:00

Photo by Eric Espada/Getty Images

Pablo López was as good as we’ve seen in 2021.

Pablo López had pitched himself into the conversation for the team’s ace in the first half. The Marlins offense, however, never gave him the run support necessary to win games. Over the first two months, he struggled with consistency from time to time and allowed six earned runs in one start in April and another in May. López settled down by the end of May and gave us a few brilliant outings. An unfortunate trip to the injured list in mid-July turned into nearly the rest of the regular season. He returned to pitch 1 ²⁄₃ innings on the final game of the season, but that was all Marlins fans could see of López in the second half.

2021 Timeline

April 2-May 27: López started 11 games in the first two months of the season. Despite holding a 2.71 ERA over those 11 starts, the Marlins lost half of those games and left him with a 1-3 record. Through those first two months, López had the lowest run support in all of baseball.
June 2-July 11: López started eight games in June and July before going on the injured list for nearly the rest of the season. One of those outings lasted one pitch (more on that later), so I’ll subtract that outing. Through seven games, he held a 3.32 ERA with 52 strikeouts.
July 17: López hits the injured list with a right rotator cuff strain.
October 3: Marlins activate López for one appearance in Game 162.

By The Numbers

López pitched well in 2021 and it’s a shame an injury sidelined him for the second-half of the season. When I was writing the series previews this season, I wrote multiple times about how the Marlins’ offense was neglecting their young pitcher. I even asked Ely to put López’s face on the begging Robin Hood meme because even just one crumb of run support could’ve helped the Marlins’ right-handed pitcher.

Over the first two months of the season, no pitcher received less run support than López’s 2.14 runs per nine innings. Brewers’ right-hander Brandon Woodruff was one tick behind him at 2.15 runs. Jacob deGrom seems to be baseball Twitter’s poster boy for unlucky starters deprived of run support and, while he’s on the list, deGrom received nearly a run and a half more than López. (Side note: you won’t be surprised, but Sandy Alcantara was on the list through the first two months before taking over as the pitcher with the lowest run support in all of baseball from June through the end of the season.)

FanGraphs

It was painful to watch the Marlins continuously let down López week after week. On April 18 vs. the Giants, López pitched six strong innings and allowed one unearned run. He walked two and struck out nine, but that single unearned run was the Giants’ only run of the game. The Marlins failed to score, and López received the loss.

In nine of his 11 starts through April and May, López held opposing offenses to two or fewer runs. He earned one win over that time. As frustrating as these games were for me, the game on July 2 was an all-time low. A 91.6 mph sinker, López’s first pitch of the game, rode up and in on Ronald Acuña Jr. and led to a prompt ejection. I won’t rehash the details (Ely did a good job with that at the time), but my point in bringing this up now is what the rest of the game.

So López gets tossed after one pitch, and Acuña takes first base. Ross Detwiler comes in and pitches three phenomenal innings, allowing just one hit. That hit was to the first batter he faced and allowed Acuña to advance to third. He then scored the game’s only run on a sacrifice fly. The bullpen did a fantastic job of allowing one hit over the next five innings. You couldn’t have asked for a better showing by the bullpen, but what about the offense? The Marlins managed only three runners in scoring position through the first eight innings. They threatened in the ninth, loading the bases with one out, but could not score. The game ended 1-0 with a Braves win. López threw one pitch thanks to an ump show and got the loss. This game, to me, summed up the depths of the Marlins’ offense this year.

To his credit, López’s season (when healthy) was the best he’s had in his career. He induced soft contact 66.7% of the time, averaging 86.7 mph on balls in play. His 33.3% chase rate was stellar, in the league’s 94th-percentile. Despite getting opposing batters to whiff on about a quarter of their swings, a mediocre rate, López’s 10.1% strikeout rate was a career high and well above league-average (23.3 K%). A majority of those strikeouts came on changeups, a pitch he frequently relied on when he got ahead in the count. Its usage has steadily climbed and in 2021 took over his 4-seam fastball usage rate.

Highlights!

June 19: 7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 7 K.

July 11: An MLB record-setting 9 consecutive strikeouts to begin the game on the one-year anniversary of his father’s passing.

Will Pablo López Be Back?

This would have been an easy answer two weeks ago, but MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweeted about rumors floating that the Marlins may consider trading Pablo López, Sandy Alcantara, or Elieser Hernandez “in order to clear a rotation spot for the next young starter in 2022.” I can’t imagine López (or Alcantara) being traded, but I suppose no one is off-limits. Ely put it best last week, so I’ll leave you with his wise words:

However, do not confuse depth with impact. Pitchers like López and especially Alcantara are rare commodities, bonafide above-average starters whose production seems entirely sustainable. The Marlins aren’t arrogant enough to believe that they can plug a prospect into either of their spots for 2022 and get the same full-season results...right? I think the Fish know better than that.

2021 Marlins Season Review: Trevor Rogers

2021-11-09T08:00:00-05:00

Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images

The days rookie Trevor Rogers took the mound gave Marlins fans a reason to tune in.

After a stellar spring training in which he held opposing batters to a .191 average and struck out 29, Trevor Rogers made the 2021 Opening Day roster and did not disappoint the Miami Marlins. His terrific rookie campaign earned him a trip to the 2021 All-Star Game in Colorado and gave fellow rookie Jonathan India a fierce competition for the NL Rookie of the Year Award.

2021 Timeline

April 5: Rogers immediately got into trouble in his first start of the season, issuing back-to-back walks to the St. Louis Cardinals lineup. He got one out on a fly ball, then threw a wild pitch before walking the next batter to load the bases. A passed ball allowed one run to score, then two more came home on a double off the centerfield wall. After a disastrous first inning, manager Don Mattingly tried to settle his young pitcher’s nerves by acknowledging the rough start and reassuring him that it couldn’t get worse than that. Rogers went out and shut the Cardinals, allowing just one baserunner over the next three innings.
April NL Rookie of the Month: Rogers dominated opposing batters in his next four starts that month, earning him NL Rookie of the Month honors. He allowed just two earned runs the rest of the month, walking six and striking out 32 batters. Rogers’ combined statistics in his five April starts: 28 IP, 1.29 ERA, 10 BB, 38 K, 1 HR.
May NL Rookie of the Month: After a stellar April, Rogers followed with a fantastic month of May. Over his six starts, Rogers allowed more than one earned run only twice (three in his first May start and two in his final May start). Rogers’ combined statistics in his six May starts: 34 ²⁄₃ IP, 2.34 ERA, 12 BB, 38 K, 2 HR.

Fish Stripes GIF Database

At the All-Star Break: Through the first half of the 2021 season, Rogers made 18 starts and held a 2.31 ERA over 101 ¹⁄₃ innings. He walked 34 batters, struck out 122, and held opposing batters to a .204 batting average against him. He represented the Miami Marlins at the 2021 All-Star Game.
Late-July stint on the IL and did not pitch in August: After his first start post-break, Rogers missed one start after dealing with muscle spasms in his lower back. He made one start after returning from the injured list, but was placed on the family medical emergency list at the beginning of August. He was transferred to the bereavement list before going on the restricted list in order to throw bullpens and work his way back into the rotation.
September: Rogers rejoined the Marlins for the final month to wrap up his tremendous rookie year. He wasn’t as sharp as he was in the first half, but still pitched well. Rogers’ combined statistics in his five September starts: 23 IP, 3.52 ERA, 6 BB, 28 K, 1 HR.

By The Numbers

Rogers was adamant in spring training that he deserved a spot in the Marlins’ rotation, and he didn’t make the team regret their decision to add him to the Opening Day roster.

FanGraphs

He missed barrels and induced whiffs at a rate on par with some of the best pitchers. Statcast has Rogers’ 5.0% barrel rate in the 89th percentile, and his 30.7 whiff rate in the 81st percentile. He racked up the strikeouts, too. His 122 first-half punch-outs were 18th-most in the league, more than Julio Urías, Joe Musgrove, and Walker Buehler. In fact, Ely wrote about how Rogers’ rookie year is nearly identical to Buehler’s.

Buehler came in third place in 2018’s NL Rookie of the Year voting, earning one of the three first place votes not given to Ronald Acuña Jr. I think the NL Rookie of the Year will be a closer race this year. India may be the favorite, but Rogers put up an excellent case of his own.

Highlights!

Will Trevor Rogers Be Back?

Absolutely. The Marlins have something special with Rogers, Sandy Alcantara, and Pablo López. I’m excited to see how Rogers adjusts in his sophomore season and I’m hoping for a healthy year for the trio.

This was a no-brainer, so I’ll pose another question: will Trevor Rogers win the 2021 NL Rookie of the Year? I think it would have been a closer race if Rogers didn’t miss a full month. India, though, didn’t play well the first two months of the season (.230/.333/.349). But I think recency bias will ding Rogers and not India.

On Monday, Rogers was announced as one of the NL ROY finalists. The award winner will be revealed on Nov. 15. Who do you think it will be?

Marlins to expand mental wellness program supporting local students-athletes

2021-11-04T13:30:44-04:00

Charlie Ortega Guifarro/Miami Herald/Tribune News Service via Getty Images

Great Minds–Great Athletes will serve student-athletes at 27 schools in Miami-Dade County

The Miami Marlins, in partnership with Positive Coaching Alliance and Miami-Dade County Public Schools, announce their intention to expand the Great Minds–Great Athletes program that was founded for the 2020-2021 school year. The program aims to nurture middle and high school students’ mental and emotional well-being by teaching important social-emotion skills, supporting character development, and implementing mental wellness programs into the educational curriculum.

In its inaugural year, the Great Minds–Great Athletes program worked with nine middle and nine high schools throughout the Miami-Dade County Public Schools system. Through 125 Positive Coaching Alliance workshops, the program reports working with 1,800 M-DCPS student-athletes. For the 2021-2022 school year, Great Minds–Great Athletes is expanding to include 27 local schools.

“Successful program implementation includes targeted education and curriculum, focused implementation, ongoing stewardship and follow-up, coach assessments, workbooks, online courses, account support, awards programs, and a wide range of other resources,” per the latest press release. Besides working with student-athletes, the program also provides support for parents, coaches, and school staff.

Our work to make a Marlins Impact and support the mental health of student athletes continues!

We are excited for year 2 of the Great Minds Great Athletes program with @MDCPS and @PositiveCoachUS, along with @BallySportsFL! pic.twitter.com/pgeeXFaaRP
— Marlins Foundation (@MarlinsImpact) November 4, 2021

Trigger Warning: The section below contains a brief discussion of mental illness and suicide. If you are having thoughts of suicide, contact the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline at 1-800-273-8255(TALK) or the Crisis Text Line at 741-741. You are not alone. You are meant to be alive.

As someone who is no stranger to mental health struggles, I’m encouraged by this program and hope that it can reach the middle and high school athletes who are struggling. Children and teenagers often get written off as “moody” or having an attitude, because adults don’t believe that they have anything to be anxious or depressed about. This mindset is not only wrong, but is actively harmful to children who are struggling. I would know: I was one of those kids.

50% of all lifetime mental illness begins by age 14. That number increases to 75% by age 24. The National Alliance on Mental Illness estimates that 7.7 million youth aged 6-17 experienced a mental health disorder in 2016. Adults refusing to believe children when they say they are struggling are why so many people are afraid to get help. Whether it’s a fear of being labeled weak, crazy, or attention-seeking, stigma kills. The average delay between the onset of mental illness symptoms and treatment is 11 years. 11 years! If you’ve ever wondered why suicide is the second-leading cause of death among people ages 10-34, this is why.

I know I would have benefited from conversations normalizing mental health struggles, even more so if the team I loved was vocally advocating for mental well-being and promoting initiatives that will save lives. Mental health struggles create a ripple effect, whether we like it or not. We can either force people to hide under a blanket of shame and stigma, or we can choose to connect with others through vulnerability and compassion. I choose the latter. I hope you will too.

2021 Marlins Season Review: Miguel Rojas

2021-10-29T07:30:00-04:00

With the news of his contract extension, we review Miggy Ro’s 2021 season.

In his seventh season in Miami, Miguel Rojas continued to mentor the young players around him and lay the groundwork for what he and the organization hope are a championship winning team. After a productive start, a finger injury forced Rojas to miss a few weeks of the season. He didn’t finish the season as strong as we would have hoped, but he continued to improve important aspects of his game and solidify himself as the leader of the Miami Marlins franchise.

2021 Timeline

April 1-May 27: .274/.355/.429, 117 wRC+, 9.1 BB%, 14.7 K%, 37.7 HardHit% in 48 games.
May 27: Rojas dislocated and fractured his left pointer finger diving back to first base while getting picked off. The team placed him on the injured list the next day.
June 18: Rojas was activated from the injured list. The fracture in his finger was not fully healed, but he could manage playing with the discomfort.

Miguel Rojas returns to the lineup with a taped up index finger@THUT14 breaks down how it may or may not change his approach at the plate ⬇️#MIAvsCHC #MLB #JuntosMiami pic.twitter.com/9EhGlNtHN7
— Bally Sports Florida: Marlins (@BallyMarlins) June 18, 2021

June 18-End of season: .259/.302/.372, 86 wRC+, 5.6 BB%, 13.2 K%, 30.3 HardHit% in 84 games.

By The Numbers

Losing Rojas at the end of May hurt the Marlins, who had a 24-27 record at the time. The division was still very much up for grabs and, even though they were in fourth place, they were only four games back in the NL East. Rojas was off to a fantastic start, his 117 wRC+ much better than league average (100 wRC+). When he was placed on the injured list, Rojas was the Marlins’ most valuable player by fWAR up to that point.

FanGraphs

In his absence, the Marlins lost 13 of their 19 games and occupied last place in their division. Miggy Ro, playing through a fractured finger, struggled to get going when he returned in June, going 7-for-41 in 10 games. By the end of July, he found a groove and looked more like the player he was before the finger injury. It was during this time that the Marlins moved Rojas from the fifth spot in the batting order and into the leadoff spot. He thrived with this change. Since he began leading off on July 10, Rojas slashed .278/.323/.403 with 14 doubles, one triple, and five home runs. In addition to the more consistent production, the Marlins enjoyed the lower strikeout rate (13.7%) Rojas brought to the leadoff spot. Jazz Chisholm Jr., who was regularly leading off for the first half of the season, struck out 31.9% of the time.

By the end of the season, Rojas was hitting and getting on base right around his career average. His 30 doubles were a career-high and his nine home runs were the most he’s hit since 2018. The 32-year-old also stole 13 bases.

I wrote about Rojas for Pitcher List in September, looking at the player he’s become over the last few years. The defense has always been there, but he’s worked hard to transform himself into a more complete player and person. The off-the-field aspect of that was stepping up in the clubhouse and in the community. On the field, Rojas worked on his approach at the plate in a few areas, mainly having better plate discipline and making harder contact.

The improvements were tangible. His 13.7% strikeout rate was among the best in the league and way above the 23.2% league average. Rojas continued to improve upon the contact he was making. His 32.9 HardHit% was the highest in his career. He also put the ball in the air more often, leading to the most “barrels” in his career. (Barrels are batted balls that are well-hit in terms of ideal exit velocity and launch angle.)

Highlights!

The Best Highlight of Them All: Miguel Rojas Will Be Back

The Marlins announced a 2-year/$10 million extension for shortstop Miguel Rojas yesterday. General manager Kim Ng said extending Rojas was an easy decision for the team to make because he “embodies a lot of the things that we want as Marlins.” This keeps the team’s unofficial captain in Miami through 2023, but Rojas is adamant about his desire to finish his career with the Marlins. Rojas loves Miami and Miami loves him back.

Our hearts are happy.

.@MRojasOfficial is here to stay. #JuntosMiami pic.twitter.com/ta0zb0jZ7F
— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) October 28, 2021

2021 Marlins Season Review: Jon Berti

2021-10-26T09:15:08-04:00

Photo by Jasen Vinlove/USA TODAY Sports

A look at Jon Berti’s third season with the Miami Marlins.

The 2021 season was a rollercoaster for utility man Jon Berti, which ultimately ended with an unfortunate crash. He was slow to get going in the first two months, picked up steam with a fantastic June, but his season came to a screeching halt when an 85 mph slider hit the back of his head in a game on July 23. Berti sustained a concussion and missed the rest of the season.

2021 Timeline

Early April: Came off the bench as a pinch hitter and made a few spot starts at second and third base.
April 21: Stepped into the everyday third baseman role with Brian Anderson going on the injured list.
Early May: Berti returned to utility player role with Anderson returning from the injured list. He also appeared in the outfield for a handful of games. By May 21, his batting average hit a low of .161 with a .572 OPS.
May 25: Berti returned to playing every day, but split time at second and third base because of injuries to Anderson and Jazz Chisholm Jr. (José Devers and Isan Díaz filled in wherever Berti wasn’t.)
June 18: Berti slides back into the everyday third baseman’s role because Chisholm returned from the injured list. At the end of June, he resurrected and hit .321 with a .849 OPS.
July 5: With Berti struggling and the acquisition of Joe Panik, the two split time at third base. Berti occasionally starts in the outfield or pinch hits.
July 22: Berti gets hit by a pitch in the back of the head, sustains a concussion, and is placed on the 7-day concussion injured list the next day. As hot as he was in June, Berti’s .116 batting average and .364 OPS in July were dismal. Even worse, the hit-by-pitch caused a concussion and would end his season.
October 1: Berti moved to the 60-day injured list, a procedural move to make space on the 40-man roster.

By The Numbers

I won’t sugarcoat it: Berti did not play well this season. When I wrote Berti’s 2020 season review last year, I was cautiously optimistic that Berti’s defensive versatility brought a positive value to the Marlins and he was worthy of a spot if he could provide at least league-average production at the plate. He had done that in 112 games from 2019-2020, slashing .269/.362/.388 with an adjusted-OPS of 101 (league average: 100 OPS+). Berti isn’t a long-term solution, but production on this level would’ve benefited the 2021 Marlins. Besides a hot June, Berti was painful to watch at the plate this season.

FanGraphs

Berti’s .210 batting average was third-worst among Marlins position players with at least 200 plate appearances, behind only Sandy León and Isan Díaz. His .313 slugging percentage was fourth-worst, behind Leon, Diaz, and Magneuris Sierra. If we pull back the curtain a bit, the numbers make sense. He hit the most groundballs in his career this season, a whopping 59.4% of the time he put balls in play. He got on top of the pitch or hit it weakly 52.0% of the time, far more than the average hitter’s 36.9% of the time.

What about Berti’s defense? He must’ve continued to provide value there! I regret to inform you that no, Berti didn’t play well in the field. He didn’t even play decent, or average. Of his 569 ²⁄₃ innings on defense, 336 of those were spent at third base filling in for the chronically injured Anderson. Eight of his nine errors in 2021 came while playing third, and he had an especially hard time making plays to his right. Berti tallied -2 OAA at third base, but the better way to phrase that is 2 outs below average. Berti’s nine total errors were more than all defenders not named Chisholm and Miguel Rojas, who both logged more than 1,000 innings at their positions.

Okay, so did Berti bring any value...? FanGraphs had Berti as the fourth-best baserunner per their BsR statistic. BsR considers many aspects of baserunning, including stolen bases, caught stealing, grounding into double plays, and advancing (or not) on extra-base hits. Ely wrote last week about the Marlins’ struggles with baserunning, specifically getting picked off far too often. Berti was guilty of three of the Marlins’ 23 pickoffs but added almost three runs on the bases. It’s not a high bar, but he was better than most of the team. Chisholm, Sierra, and Starling Marte were the only Marlins with higher BsR totals.

Highlights!

Will Jon Berti Be Back?

The Marlins refused to trade Berti in exchange for Andrew Benintendi last season, per the Miami Herald, so I have a feeling they won’t be giving up on Berti yet. The team’s track record when it comes to cutting ties with struggling players isn’t great, so I don’t think they’ll give up on Berti.

Because the 31-year-old is arbitration-eligible, the Marlins have until the December 2 deadline to decide whether to tender a contract or let Berti go as a free agent. As a ballpark figure, MLB Trade Rumors’ projected arbitration salary for Berti is $1.2 million.

Above all else, I hope that Berti recovers physically, mentally, and emotionally from the concussion he sustained on July 22. His performance in 2021 is what it is, but none of the numbers matter when traumatic injuries like these occur. I look forward to seeing a healthy Berti on the field in 2022.

Phillies vs. Marlins Series Preview

2021-10-01T10:00:00-04:00

Photo by Sam Navarro/USA TODAY Sports

The 2021 season comes to a close with 3 final games at LoanDepot Park.

The Miami Marlins wrap up the 2021 season with a weekend series against the Philadelphia Phillies. Their loss last night officially ended the Phillies’ postseason hopes, clearing the way for the Braves to win the division. Fish fans have three more chances to catch a game at LoanDepot Park, so take advantage while you still can!

This series preview will give you all the details:

Schedule, Watch, Listen
Probable Pitchers
Recent Lineups
What To Watch For

Schedule, Watch, Listen

Friday, October 1 at 7:10 pm

Saturday, October 2 at 6:10 pm

Sunday, October 3 at 3:10 pm

TV broadcast for all 3 games: Bally Sports Florida
Radio broadcast for all 3 games: 940 AM WINZ, WAQI 710

Probable Pitchers

Friday: LHP Ranger Suárez vs. RHP Sandy Alcantara

Suárez: 1.45 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 25.1 K%, 31.3 HardHit% in 99.0 IP
Alcantara: 3.09 ERA, 1.071 WHIP, 24.0 K%, 39.1 HardHit% in 200.2 IP

Saturday: RHP Hans Crouse vs. LHP Jesús Luzardo

Crouse: 3.00 ERA, 2.000 WHIP, 6.7 K%, 20.0 HardHit% in 3.0 IP
Luzardo: 6.90 ERA, 1.644 WHIP, 20.9 K%, 39.0 HardHit% in 90.0 IP

Sunday: RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Pablo López

Wheeler: 2.78 ERA, 1.008 WHIP, 29.1 K%, 28.6 HardHit% in 213.1 IP
López: 3.03 ERA, 1.089 WHIP, 27.1 K%, 32.8 HardHit% in 101.0 IP

Recent Lineups

Baseball-Reference.com

Starting lineups used by the Phillies over the last seven games.

Baseball-Reference.com

Starting lineups used by the Marlins over the last seven games.

What to watch for this weekend:

There hasn’t been much to cheer about and even moral victories seem futile now, but I know I’ll miss the frustrating Fish once the season is over. Soak up all the baseball you can this weekend. It’s a long, dark offseason.

Marlins vs. Mets Series Preview

2021-09-28T10:00:00-04:00

@miggyslocker/Instagram

Live from New York, it’s the Miami Marlins!

The last week of the 2021 regular season is upon us. The Miami Marlins’ final road series begins Tuesday afternoon against the New York Mets. The Fish will play a doubleheader today, making up a rain-out from Sept. 1. Coming into the series, the Marlins carry a 5-game losing streak. Meanwhile, the Mets have lost 10 of their last 11 games.

This series preview will give you all the details:

Schedule, Watch, Listen
Probable Pitchers
Recent Lineups
What To Watch For

Schedule, Watch, Listen

Tuesday, September 28 at 4:10 pm & Game 2 follows

Wednesday, September 29 at 7:10 pm

Thursday, September 30 at 7:10 pm

TV broadcast for all games: Bally Sports Florida
Radio broadcast for all games: 940 AM WINZ, WAQI 710

Probable Pitchers

Tuesday Game 1: RHP Zach Thompson vs. RHP Marcus Stroman

Thompson: 3.30 ERA, 1.211 WHIP, 20.1 K%, 34.4 HardHit% in 71.0 IP
Stroman: 3.00 ERA, 1.138 WHIP, 21.7 K%, 42.2 HardHit% in 174.0 IP

Tuesday Game 2: LHP Trevor Rogers vs. RHP Noah Syndergaard

Rogers: 2.67 ERA, 1.172 WHIP, 28.3 K%, 37.3 HardHit% in 128.0 IP
Syndergaard: First start since 2019, injured elbow and underwent Tommy John surgery

Wednesday: RHP Elieser Hernandez vs. RHP Taijuan Walker

Hernandez: 4.24 ERA, 1.329 WHIP, 22.9 K%, 37.6 HardHit% in 46.2 IP
Walker: 4.57 ERA, 1.207 WHIP, 22.4 K%, 40.2 HardHit% in 151.2 IP

Thursday: RHP Edward Cabrera vs. RHP Tylor Megill

Cabrera: 5.79 ERA, 1.671 WHIP, 20.6 K%, 46.9 HardHit% in 23.1 IP
Megill: 4.78 ERA, 1.335 WHIP, 25.7 K%, 42.9 HardHit% in 84.2 IP

Recent Lineups

Baseball-Reference.com

Starting lineups used by the Marlins over the last seven games.

Baseball-Reference.com

Starting lineups used by the Mets over the last seven games.

What to watch for on...

Tuesday: Let’s play two!

As we try to soak up the last bit of baseball, don’t forget today’s doubleheader! The Marlins have been frustrating to watch, but there’s not much baseball left before the offseason.

Fish Strips GIF Database

Trevor Rogers is on the mound for the Fish and is coming off a stellar performance against the Nationals: 5.1 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 10 K. Facing the Mets at the beginning of the season, Rogers dominated his way to his first win of the season by allowed just three hits and striking out 10 batters.

Wednesday: Can the Marlins hitters attack Taijuan Walker?

Walker post-All Star break: 7.74 ERA, 1.456 WHIP, 18.5 K%, 36.5 HardHit% in 57.0 IP (12 games)
The second half of the season has been a dismal one for Walker. His ERA has jumped more than five runs from the first to second half (2.66 vs. 7.74). Opposing batters have a .270 batting average against Walker in the second half with a .913 OPS. In 37.2 fewer innings, Walker’s allowed 14 more home. We’ll see if the Marlins bats wake up on Wednesday.

Thursday: The long ball against Tylor Megill.

Over the last month, Megill has allowed 12 home runs across six starts. One-third of the hits he allows leave the yard.
In his last outing against the Brewers, three of Megill’s five hits were home runs. He lasted just four innings, walking four batters and striking out two. Marlins hitters are below average at putting the ball in the air and have the third-fewest home runs in MLB, left-handed hitters like Jesús Sánchez and Lewin Díaz are guys to watch against the right-handed Megill who has been prone to the long ball recently.

Marlins vs. Rays Series Preview

2021-09-24T10:00:00-04:00

Photo by Jasen Vinlove/USA TODAY Sports

All the details for this weekend’s Citrus Series at The Trop!

The Miami Marlins last road trip of the 2021 season is upon us. A 3-game Citrus Series begins tonight against the Tampa Bay Rays, holder of the best record in the American League. They have officially clinched a spot in the postseason. After the weekend series, the Marlins will take on the Mets at Citi Field then return for three final games against the Phillies at LoanDepot Park.

This series preview will give you all the details:

Schedule, Watch, Listen
Probable Pitchers
Recent Lineups
What To Watch For

Schedule, Watch, Listen

Friday, September 24 at 7:10 pm

Saturday, September 25 at 6:10 pm

Sunday, September 26 at 1:10 pm

TV broadcast for all 3 games: Bally Sports Florida
Radio broadcast for all 3 games: 940 AM WINZ, WAQI 710

Probable Pitchers

Friday: RHP Edward Cabrera vs. RHP David Robertson

Cabrera: 5.31 ERA, 1.623 WHIP, 17.4 K%, 45.8 HardHit% in 20.1 IP
Robertson: 5.63 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 36.1 K%, 40.0 HardHit% in 8.0 IP

Saturday: RHP Sandy Alcantara vs. LHP Shane McClanahan

Alcantara: 3.05 ERA, 1.058 WHIP, 24.1 K%, 39.3 HardHit% in 194.2 IP
McClanahan: 3.51 ERA, 1.275 WHIP, 27.9 K%, 45.0 HardHit% in 115.1 IP

Sunday: LHP Jesús Luzardo vs. RHP Shane Baz

Luzardo: 7.01 ERA, 1.674 WHIP, 20.6 K%, 39.0 HardHit% in 86.0 IP
Baz: 3.60 ERA, 0.400 WHIP, 29.4 K%, 50.0 HardHit% in 5.0 IP

Recent Lineups

Baseball-Reference.com

Starting lineups used by the Marlins over the last seven games.

Baseball-Reference.com

Starting lineups used by the Rays over the last seven games.

What to watch for on...

Friday: Lewin Díaz is on a roll.

Díaz’s over last 14 days: 15-for-49, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 2 BB, 14 K.
He seems to have found his groove now that he’s starting every day at first base. When he’s put the ball in play over the last 14 days, he has a .375 batting average. Díaz is even better lately, with a .438 BABIP over the last seven days. He’s playing well defensively, too. Louis Addeo-Weiss wrote about why Lewin deserves the 2022 first base job here. Because they’ll be in an AL ballpark, the Marlins will take advantage of the extra bat with the DH in play.

Photo by Rhona Wise/USA TODAY Sports

Lewin Díaz

Saturday: Alcantara the ace.

Alcantara’s lasting outing against Pittsburgh: 6.0 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K.
Sandy Alcantara takes the mound for the Fish on Saturday. He wasn’t as sharp against the Pirates last weekend as we’ve seen lately, but he kept the Marlins in the game and they were able to walk it off courtesy of a Lewin Díaz home run in extra innings. Sandy hasn’t seen the Rays a ton, but he’s kept them quiet in the few times facing Tampa Bay — .154 batting average against with 12 strikeouts.

Sunday: Rays top prospect Shane Baz.

Baz’s MLB debut last week: 5.0 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 5 K.
MLB Pipeline’s No. 20 prospect made his debut last week against the Blue Jays, collecting five strikeouts and securing his first win. The two hits he allowed were solo home runs, one to Teoscar Hernández and the other to Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Baz’s fastball flirts with triple digits. He struck out Triple Crown hopeful Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on a 99.5 MHP four-seamer in his debut. He also used a slider and curveball against Toronto.