Fish Stripes: All Posts by Louis Addeo-Weiss

Idealizing a Pablo López Blockbuster

2022-05-23T13:40:35-04:00

Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

The reigning NL Pitcher of the Month could be a hot commodity come the trade deadline.

“The Miami Marlins boast one of the best young rotations in the sport.”

It is inarguable and exciting, but ultimately pointless should the team not supplement that with a core of talented position players and competent relievers.

Early indications are that the Marlins have not done enough to contend in 2022. In the first in a string of “put up or shut up” years for the Fish, they’re playing sub-.500 baseball. The National League East division title is already looking like a pipedream and they have merely the 10th-best record in the 15-team NL entering Monday.

They are not bad enough to contemplate a full rebuild, but the front office must be open to making substantial moves that optimize the organization for 2023 and beyond.

During the first quarter of the season, Pablo López has blossomed into Sandy Alcantara’s co-ace. Through 8 starts and 46 innings, all López has done is post a 1.57 ERA and .186 opponent batting average—both tops among qualified National League pitchers.

Pablo López has struck out Albert Pujols all three times he's faced him tonight

An incredible performance from the Marlins #2, ringing up nine Cardinals in seven shutout innings pic.twitter.com/Qt9flgdsO5
— Just Baseball (@JustBBMedia) April 22, 2022

The Marlins showed their dedicated to Alcantara last winter by inking him to a $56 million contract extension. However, they used a different approach with the oft-injured López, taking him to an arbitration hearing that was finally resolved last week. The club won its case and 26-year-old right-hander will earn just $2.45 million this season.

As is always the case, contending teams will be in the market for top-tier starting pitching. López’s combination of recent performance, low 2022 salary and two additional years of control (through 2024) should make him very appealing to buyers. If the Marlins aren’t going to extend him, this would be a tempting opportunity to sell high while addressing other needs.

What club would be pushing hardest to land April’s NL Pitcher of the Month in such a scenario?

Consider the Los Angeles Dodgers. After Walker Buehler and Julio Urías, the historically-renowned pitching factory of an organization sits with many a question regarding how their starting rotation will hold up. While still great when he’s healthy, Clayton Kershaw’s reliability is not what it once was. Flame-throwing Dustin May is still easing back into the mix following Tommy John surgery, and only time will tell how Tony Gonsolin’s performance sustains itself over the course of a full season. Trevor Bauer is in the midst of appealing his two-year MLB suspension, but even if he stunningly wins his case, the Dodgers don’t expect to allow him back on the mound.

What would it theoretically take for Andrew Friedman and the Dodgers to pry the effective López away from Kim Ng’s Marlins?

The Trade

Marlins receive: C Diego Cartaya (24th-ranked MLB prospect on Baseball America, 24th on MLB Pipeline and 38th on FanGraphs) and OF Andy Pages (92nd/64th/92nd)

Dodgers receive: RHP Pablo López

Baseball Trade Values

Why It Makes Sense for Miami

What an organization should hope to accomplish in trading an established asset is setting or supplementing an already-laid foundation for the next core of winning baseball. With this trade, Miami would be doing just that.

Marlins fans learned the hard way that there are no “sure things” in the prospect world. However, the caliber of players involved here makes this almost too good to pass on.

A 20-year-old catcher out of Venezuela, Diego Cartaya has shown an advanced feel for hitting in the lower levels of the minors. As we can see below, even the best big league pitchers have a tough time getting the ball by him.

Dodgers #1 prospect Diego Cartaya just hit an absolute BOMB off of Padres starter Blake Snell during his rehab start in Single-A pic.twitter.com/siOmZqmGVh
— Bruce (@Bnicklaus7) May 5, 2022

In 59 games at A-ball Greensboro since 2021, Cartaya has slashed .276/.396/.575 with 18 home runs, earning high praise from the likes of Keith Law. Come trade deadline time, he’ll be ready for a promotion to the High-A level, and it’s only a matter of time before he could be giving current Marlins’ backstop Jacob Stallings a run for the starting job.

As for Andy Pages, his ticket to the big leagues will be even more predicated on his bat. The outfielder owns a career .262/.388/.535 slash line. After hitting 31 home runs in High-A ball last year, Pages isn’t going deep as frequently out of the gate in AA (5 HR in 165 PA), but he remains very productive thanks to his plate discipline. That skill raises his floor as a player and should be celebrated by the Marlins organization, which has seen many of its free-swinging prospects fail upon reaching The Show.

Andy Pages with his 20th home run of the season. Some of the best power in the #Dodgers system.

Oh, he's still only 20 years old. pic.twitter.com/OYV6raTMZr
— Blake Harris (@BlakeHarrisTBLA) July 31, 2021

The fit from Miami’s perspective also accounts for their lack of a true center fielder. Neither Jesús Sánchez nor Bryan De La Cruz have solidified that position as of yet. Though Pages profiles more as a corner guy, he has 70 games under his belt in center.

Pages won’t be big league-ready in 2022, but his outstanding overall MiLB performance could force the hand of the front office.

What are your thoughts? Is there a possible trade scenario out there you’d like for us to explore? Does Pablo finish the season in Miami?

MIA 4, ATL 3: Sandy Stellar

2022-05-22T17:23:38-04:00

Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

Alcantara goes the distance as Miami avoids the sweep to end the homestand on a high note.

Miami, FL—Saturday made for the latest in what has become the prevailing narrative surrounding the Marlins the past two seasons, one-run losses. Miami would earn their 13th one-run loss falling 4-3 despite a strong start by Elieser Hernández.

Playing to 17,908 on-lookers Sunday, Sandy Alcantara would do what he does best, efficiently carve his way through big-league lineups, allowing one unearned run on 103 pitches over the first 8 innings.

Enter the 9th inning, and with Alcantara looking for his 4th career complete game, the Marlins ace would be faced with some adversity, as a routine pop-up dropped by Jesús Aguilar facilitated Atlanta in scoring 2 unanswered runs. The Fish would, however, find themselves on the other side of yesterday’s defeat, taking the series finale to avoid the sweep at the hands of the Braves, 4-3, with Alcantara finishing what he started.

“That’s my mentality every time, to throw 9 innings,” said Alcantara to Bally’s Kelly Saco.

Amid two Miami errors, the Marlins’ ace would finish the day with 0 earned runs allowed, striking out 7, and walking 2 on 115 pitches.

Sandy Alcántara, Complete Game. pic.twitter.com/t7s9ysTJFt
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 22, 2022

Sunday saw Alcantara become the first pitcher in the majors to complete 8 innings in 3 or more starts this season. Houston’s Justin Verlander is the only other pitcher to do so twice. In 9 starts now, Alcantara owns a 2.11 ERA and leads all of baseball in innings pitched (59.2).

“(Sandy) was good all day,” said manager Don Mattingly.

“We’ve seen a lot of games like this where he’s in the zone, and teams aren’t waiting around.”

Alcantara’s 14.8 P/IP (Pitches Per Inning) ranks 12th among all qualified pitchers.

With the win, Miami improves to 18-22—this despite a +17 run differential—and 6-13 in one-run games. The Marlins are now half-game behind Atlanta for 2nd in the NL East, currently trailing the Mets by 8 games.

Miami would come out of the gates hot early, touching Atlanta starter Ian Anderson (6+ IP, 7 H, 4 R) for a run in the bottom of the 1st. It wouldn’t be until the bottom of the 6th when a Brian Anderson single would drive home Garrett Cooper to help Miami reclaim the lead. Atlanta had previously tied the game in the 5th following an error on a fly ball hit to center fielder Jesús Sánchez.

Ultimately though, Jacob Stallings would drive in the go-ahead run in 7th with a single, his second hit of the day. Stallings would reach base safely 3 times in Sunday’s win.

Baseball Savant

Looking Ahead

With an off-day scheduled for Monday, Miami will travel to St. Pete, where they’ll begin a brief two-game set against the Rays. Pablo López (4-1, 1.57 ERA) will square off against Shane McClanahan (3-2, 2.33 ERA) with first pitch slated for 6:40 Eastern from Tropicana Field.

Of Note

After Sunday’s game, center fielder Jesús Sánchez became the 12th player this season to register exactly 12 games of 2 or more strikeouts. The Cubs Patrick Wisdom and Dodgers Chris Taylor, lead all of baseball with 19-such occurrences.
Brian Anderson matched a career-best 24-game on-base streak with a 4th inning double. Anderson previously had said-streak from June 2-27, 2018.
Second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. exited Sunday’s game after two innings with what reports are calling left hamstring tightness. Recently recalled Joe Dunand would replace him in what was his first career big-league appearance at 2nd base.

MIA 3, MIL 7: Same Old Song and Dance

2022-05-15T18:03:06-04:00

Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

Familiar foe bites Elieser late, Miami drops finale

The scene Sunday was one Marlins fans had become numb to at this point. Elieser Hernandez, the presumed odd man out in a rotation that should be expecting Max Meyer any day now, looked sharp through the first four innings, with Milwaukee having only 1 unearned run to show for their early efforts.

But, as has been the case a time too many before it, the Brewers lineup was set to turn over for the third time entering the 5th. No. 9 hitter Jace Peterson deposited an 86 mph changeup into the right-center field seats, cutting the Miami lead to 3-2. One batter later, Kolten Wong greeted Elieser in the same manner, this time on a slider that again sailed over the head of right fielder Bryan De La Cruz. The game was now tied at 3-3.

Fast-forward to the end of the inning, and Elieser’s final line keeps the murmurs about his unwarranted roster spot alive and well: 4+ IP, 3 H, 5 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 2 SO (2 HR)

“I could have been better. I made a couple of mistakes, and paid the price for it,” said Hernández through an interpreter.

Miami would also trail Milwaukee 5-3 in what would turn out to be a 7-3 loss to the first-place Brewers. With the loss, the Marlins fall to 15-19, losers in 11 of their last 14.

The bats made their presence felt early, though, as catcher Payton Henry would plate a pair with a single in the first, and Jorge Soler would connect for his team-leading 7th home run in the bottom of the 3rd.

Jorge Soler with a 600-foot high moon bomb. pic.twitter.com/Y4Cuquv9aG
— Jared Carrabis (@Jared_Carrabis) May 15, 2022

However, as soon as the ball hit off of Jace Peterson’s bat in the top of the 5th, the momentum shift in loanDepot Park was ever-present.

Jace Peterson (3) pic.twitter.com/qLqpq5sISd
— ’ ™️ (@yelichfans) May 15, 2022

The Brewers would later get run-scoring hits from Rowdy Tellez and Omar Narváez, who homered and doubled, respectively.

Looking Ahead

The Fish get a chance to sleep in their own beds tonight as they await the arrival of the Washington Nationals in a series set to begin Monday. Aaron Sanchez (2-2, 7.58 ERA) will square off against Sandy Alcantara (2-2, 2.74 ERA) with first pitch slated for 6:40 Eastern.

Of Note

Entering play Sunday, Hernandez’s 46 home runs over his last 44 appearances made for the 27th time in big league history in which a pitcher has done so over that number of appearances. His 189.1 innings in that span, though, make for the fewest innings thrown to reach said mark.
Left-hander Jesús Luzardo was placed on the 15-day IL with a left forearm strain. Per manager Don Mattingly, they’ll be using a spot starter on Tuesday.
With his “golden sombrero” Sunday, Jesús Sánchez has now been responsible for 3 of Miami’s last 5 four-strikeout games.

Baseball Savant

Present Hurting the Future? Marlins Continue to Hold Down Major League-Ready Reinforcements

2022-05-13T11:00:54-04:00

Photo by Ralph Freso/Getty Images

Are these current players preventing Miami from developing a core of young talent?

For the first time since the hugely anticipated Jeffrey Loria divorce, the Miami Marlins are genuinely trying to compete.

On paper, they have the talent to deploy one of the best starting rotations in baseball. The club locked up staff ace Sandy Alcantara for the long term, retained 2021 All-Star Trevor Rogers and likely 2022 All-Star Pablo López, and to the delight of many, Jesús Luzardo has taken a big step in the right direction.

From a position player standpoint, it was a struggle for non-diehards to name a Marlin other than Jazz Chisholm Jr. So the Marlins uncharacteristically opened up the checkbook, making the big-money free-agent acquisitions of Jorge Soler and Avisaíl García. However, both have underperformed—78 OPS+ and 54 OPS+, respectively.

For an organization fresh off ten consecutive losing seasons, a surprise playoff berth in a pandemic shortened-season, followed by another flirtation with last place, fans of the Marlins have been feeling a sense of “here we go again.” Four-plus years since the ownership transition, the roster remains flawed. The Fish enter Friday with a 14-17 record, only good for 11th-best in the National League.

It’s too early to seriously discuss solving problems via the trade market, so the Marlins must look internally for a spark.

At first base, for example, the Marlins have Garrett Cooper and Jesús Aguilar sharing time. Productive big league players, no doubt—the Marlins are getting a 156 wRC+ from the position. But a lot of that is nullified by their minus-5.4 runs of defensive value, according to FanGraphs (ranks 26th of MLB 30 teams).

Even with the success Cooper and Aguilar are having, is it safe to say that they’re blocking the likes of Lewin Díaz from cementing himself as an asset for a club who hopes to be a perennial contender? If Díaz—a power hitter with exceptional fielding skills—continues to roam first base at AAA, we may never know.

Lewin Díaz getting things started in the 3rd! Another lead in this series! pic.twitter.com/2ObwCM4LpT
— Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp (@JaxShrimp) May 8, 2022

Díaz is hitting .267/.350/.483 in 30 games this season at AAA Jacksonville.

He could co-exist with one of Cooper or Aguilar serving as designated hitter, but holding onto both is redundant and inefficient financially. Both are north of age 30 and unlikely to improve upon the current versions of themselves.

No doubter!

Garrett Cooper nearly hits the scoreboard in left field with this mammoth shot to tie the game pic.twitter.com/QiqzsB9DWe
— Just Baseball (@JustBBMedia) April 14, 2022

Moving from the 3-spot on the positional depth chart to the mound, we have the issue of Elieser Hernández continuing to receive regular big league starts. Hernández owns a 6.37 ERA and the 3rd-worst HR/9 rate among pitchers with at least 25 innings pitched.

Meanwhile Max Meyer appears beyond ready to get Major League hitters out. Meyer owns a 2.44 ERA and 10.6 K/9 in 147 ¹⁄₃ minor league innings.

Watching back on Max Meyer's start from last night. There are not many pitchers out there who make Triston Casas look this uncomfortable on consecutive pitches. pic.twitter.com/g5tZfDvNub
— Aram Leighton (@AramLeighton8) April 7, 2022

For any of the legitimate concerns surrounding Díaz’s bat, Meyer has more easily projectable stuff and intangibles—it would come as no surprise to see him quickly become an integral part of Miami’s rotation. Hernández still has minor league options, making it all the more difficult to understand why the Marlins are being so complacent about the weakest spot in their starting 5.

MIA 2, SD 3: A Familiar Face, A Familiar Fate

2022-05-08T19:43:45-04:00

Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images

Rogers is encouraging, Jazz remains smooth, but old friend Alfaro has the last laugh.

If Marlins’ starter Trevor Rogers does in fact turn around his season, May 8, 2022, may just be the date he remembers most from this calendar year.

On Mother’s Day Sunday, the 24-year-old entered play with a 6.14 ERA and league-leading 4 losses. Fast forward 93 pitches through 5 scoreless innings, and the potential Rogers turnaround may have just begun.

At the outset, though, it appeared more of the same for Rogers, with 4 of the first 5 hitters reaching 3 ball counts. 7 Padres hitters would see 3 ball counts on the day, albeit with just 3 hits and 2 walks to show for it.

Trevor Rogers striking out Trayce Thompson on back-to-back pitches pic.twitter.com/Vj219dacpi
— Fish Stripes (@fishstripes) May 8, 2022

Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for Miami, as the Fish would lose a 3-2 heartbreaker. With the loss, the Marlins fall, again, to two-game under .500, and down to 3rd place in the NL East.

“It felt like everything went away until the last pitch of the game,” said a stunned-looking Don Mattingly.

Opposing Rogers, Joe Musgrove, who authored the franchise’s first no-hitter last season, authored 7 strong innings of his own, striking out a season-best 8, while also throwing a season-high 108 pitches.

A Garrett Cooper sacrifice fly and Jazz Chisholm solo home run would prove all Miami could muster offensively.

.@j_chisholm3 eurostepping his way around the bases. pic.twitter.com/MPrRPPjWb1
— MLB (@MLB) May 8, 2022

In relief of Rogers, Miami got scoreless outings from the two Anthony’s - Bender and Bass - as well as Steven Okert.

For the 9th, Miami turned to Cole Sulser, and after a strikeout of Austin Nola to start the inning, it appeared the Fish were set to walk away from San Diego with a series split. Sulser would then allow a single to Jurickson Profar before aiding in a tremendous play. On a groundball hit by center fielder Trent Grisham, an errant Joey Wendle throw would be recovered by Miguel Rojas, and flipped over to third where Sulser would wind up applying the tag to get out a sliding Profar.

That's the stuff PFPs are made of. Wow. Good job by Cole Sulser and Miguel Rojas there.#Marlins pic.twitter.com/1D0zmGW35B
— Christina De Nicola (@CDeNicola13) May 8, 2022

A C.J. Abrams single to keep the Frias alive would bring a familar face to the plate, Jorge Alfaro. One pitch and 449 feet later, and the Padres would go home the victors, 3-2, snapping a streak of 20 consecutive scoreless innings by Marlins’ pitching.

WALK IT OFF, JORGE ALFARO! pic.twitter.com/E6oMWo2EG2
— San Diego Padres (@Padres) May 8, 2022

“You see Jorgie (Alfaro) come up, and you know he’s dangerous,” uttered Mattingly.

“It’s a frustrating way to end the series, especially when your guys go out there and do their job for 8 innings,” said a noticably upset Sulser.

Looking Ahead

The Fish will continue their West Coast road trip Monday when they travel to Arizona to begin a three-game set against the Diamondbacks. The series will make for Miami’s 14th, 15th, and 16th consecutive games without a day off. The D-Backs, who recently swept Miami in a series of succeeding one-run losses, will send out Humberto Castellanos (2-1, 4.12 ERA), while Miami will counter with Elieser Hernández (2-1, 6.66 ERA), who looks to get back on track after 13 runs over his last 13.2 IP (8.56 ERA). First pitch is slated for 9:40 Eastern.

Of Note

Walk on the Wild Side: Sunday marked the 2nd time in Rogers’ career that he’d gone five consecutive starts of at least 2 or more walks. The left-hander last did it between 05/02-05/24/21, when he walked 12 over 28.2 innings. Rogers has walked 12 in this stretch as well, though only in 22 innings of work in which he owns a 5.32 ERA.
Anthony Bender, who began the year as the team’s primary closer, pitched 1-2-3 6th inning Sunday. Prior to that outing, the sinker-baller Bender had a 5.06 ERA and allowed an opponent OPS of .805 in 10.2 innings in the 6th.
It’s Alive!: After starting the season hitting just .171 with a .433 OPS over his first 11 games through April 20th, Jesús Aguilar’s bat has awoken from a slumber that began late last season. Since the start of play on April 21th, the club’s first baseman has gone 20-60 (.333) with 7 extra base hits - including a pair doubles on Sunday.

Baseball-Savant

Miami Marlins (2) @ San Diego Padres (3), Win Probability Graph, 8 May 2022

What’s causing Trevor Rogers’ slow start?

2022-05-05T17:50:00-04:00

Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images

After being one of MLB’s best inning-for-inning pitchers during his 2021 breakout, Rogers has stumbled out of the gate in 2022.

If one thing propels the Miami Marlins to a playoff berth, you’d figure it’d be the starting rotation. Recently extended Sandy Alcantara, despite some early struggles, has pitched to a 2.90 ERA over his first five starts. Pablo López is coming off an NL Pitcher of the Month award, allowing only one run during the entire month of April. Jesús Luzardo seems to have done a complete 180 in his first full season pitching in Miami. When right, even Elieser Hernandez is a serviceable big league pitcher.

On a per-inning basis, Trevor Rogers was better than any of them in 2021 en route to a NL Rookie of the Year runner-up finish. Less than one year removed from an NL All-Star nod, however, Rogers has severely regressed.

Trevor Rogers has entered the chat. ✨ pic.twitter.com/Zq0VHDVehn
— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) July 13, 2021

In 22 innings over his first five starts, the 24-year-old Rogers has pitched to a 1-4 record with a 6.14 ERA. By virtually every measure, he’s been a below-average rotation option for a Marlins team that’s determined to contend now.

How heavily should we weigh his sluggish opening month? Let’s look at how and why Rogers has performed so poorly out of the gate.

It appears the league has adjusted to the characteristics of Rogers’ pitches and his preferred sequencing, because opposing hitters are not chasing out of the strike zone as much as they used to. He finished in the 68th percentile in chase rate in 2021—that has plummeted to the 25th percentile in 2022. Consequently, he hasn’t been able to operate in favorable counts. Rogers got ahead 0-2 in 30.4% of plate appearances last season compared to 20.6% currently (the MLB average is 26.1%).

Photo by Eric Espada/Getty Images

Regardless of the situation, Rogers’ stuff is not working as intended. That is reflected in his lack of swing-and-miss. Per Baseball Savant, the Whiff% is down on each of his weapons—from 26.8% to 25.5% on four-seam fastballs, from 33.7% to 21.1% on changeups and 40.8% to 35.7% on sliders. Batters are “staying alive” long enough to capitalize on his mistakes.

The left-hander is allowing more hits, the same number as his innings pitched (9.0 H/9). During his breakout 2021, Rogers posted a H/9 of 7.2. He’s putting even more traffic on the bases via walks (4.5 BB/9). Outside of his most recent outing against the Diamondbacks, the former first-round draft pick is keeping balls in the yard, but he’s leaving himself little margin for error by permitting baserunners so frequently.

Rogers struck out 18.4-percent of hitters in his four April starts, a stark contrast from his 34.9-percent mark last April. He has yet to register more than 4 strikeouts in any appearance. That’s leading to extra balls in play. His .303 batting average on balls in play is similar to his 2021 mark (.307 BABIP).

How much of this slow start can be attributed to Rogers getting unlucky? Can he still salvage his season?

At the outset, we noted Rogers' ugly 6.14 ERA, but his 4.14 FIP indicates that he’s done a decent job of controlling what he can control. He is near the top of the list of starters with the biggest gaps between their ERA and FIP, a leaderboard that includes reputable arms like Kevin Gausman, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta. Same story with his xERA of 4.07.

After struggling somewhat with his slider in 2021—allowing a .452 xSLG—Rogers has made tangible changes, like throwing it 2.2 miles per hour slower on average to get a larger separation in velocity between it and his other pitches. So far, hitters have managed a .231 BA and .385 SLG against the breaking ball, but based on their lousy quality of contact, Baseball Savant foresees much better outcomes (.155 xBA and .168 xSLG).

Trevor Rogers, Filthy 80mph Slider. pic.twitter.com/K92AOWZSdI
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 31, 2022

The numbers may not tell the whole story, either. Consider the potential ripple effects of the lockout and abbreviated Spring Training on somebody like Rogers, determined to evade the dreaded “sophomore slump” but not having access to the Marlins’ coaches and analysts for most of the 2021-22 offseason.

“It’s hard to say that anything is a trend yet,” said manager Don Mattingly in response to the slow start by hitters, though one could apply the same logic to the other side of the ball.

What Went Well: April 2022 edition

2022-05-02T07:20:46-04:00

Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images

Recapping some of the highs for the Fish from the first month of the 2022 season.

The 2022 season arrived with new faces and heightened expectations for the Miami Marlins. So far, so good for the Fish: they went 12-8 during the month of April with a plus-10 run differential. And that’s despite slow starts from free agent pick-ups Jorge Soler and Avisaíl García and first baseman Jesús Aguilar (among others).

This marks the beginning of a new article series where we’ll be highlighting standout performances from the previous month.

Pablo López’s league-leading April

Pablo López's 0.39 ERA is the lowest in Marlins history thru 4 starts in a season, surpassing 2004 Dontrelle Willis' 0.71 https://t.co/0xdfyiLxVp
— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) April 28, 2022

From the get-go this season, Pablo López has been a sure thing on the mound. Through 4 starts, López sports a MLB-best 0.39 ERA, good enough for a 1,002 ERA+. Doing so over 23 ¹⁄₃ innings pitched, the changeup specialist has done so without allowing a home run. Lost in the shuffle of his changeup, though, is the continued effectiveness of López’s cutter. In 10 plate appearances ending on the pitch, hitters are 0-for-9 with an xBA of .118.

Pitching, Pitching, and More Pitching

"They don't just have starting pitching. They have impact starting pitching."

Things are looking up in the 305!!!@Marlins I #TheRundown pic.twitter.com/JxLN8UVqYo
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) September 14, 2021

We already made mention of López’s fast start, but the collective 3.03 ERA (7th) and 2.1 fWAR (6th) from the starting rotation shouldn’t be ignored. Other highlights include Sandy Alcantara, who finished April with a 1.78 ERA. And though his 5.09 ERA isn’t great on the surface, Trevor Rogers did sport a 2.99 FIP while keeping with his propensity to limit home runs. Speaking of starters with encouraging peripherals...

Jesús Luzardo’s breakout?

Jesús Luzardo triples up on his breaking ball (all of 'em in a similar spot) to retire Adam Duvall pic.twitter.com/IWEIIDcBzE
— Fish Stripes (@fishstripes) April 24, 2022

Jesús Luzardo’s first go-round with the club in 2021 was not pretty—6.44 ERA in 57 ¹⁄₃ innings—but the former stud prospect clearly had tools for the Marlins to work with. His fastball ranked in the 83rd percentile in average velocity and late in the year, he began utilizing his nasty, slurvy breaking ball at a higher frequency.

While the walks are still a bit of a concern four starts into 2022 (4.0 BB/9), the left-hander is striking out a career-best 12.4 batters per nine innings while boasting a vast reduction in HR/9 (from 1.4 to 0.4). His fastball has gained even more heat, moving up to the 93rd percentile in velo, not to mention more precise command.

Luzardo is a pitcher who appears much more confident in his abilities. With a brilliant 2.26 FIP, we should be confident in him moving forward, too.

The Jazz is Smoother

On this triple last night, Jazz Chisholm Jr. made it to third base in 11.27 seconds

According to Statcast, it's the fastest home-to-third time for ANY PLAYER on any play this season

RECAP: https://t.co/yGS1DuxZBP pic.twitter.com/DkJJ0Eku0v
— Fish Stripes (@fishstripes) April 30, 2022

If the National League had an answer to the White Sox’s Tim Anderson, it’d be Jazz Chisholm Jr. Flashing plus power (18 HR) and plus speed (23 SB) in 2021, Chisholm emerged as one of the sport’s brightest and most marketable young stars. But he fizzled after an early-season injury and rated as a below-average hitter overall.

Fast forward to 2022, the first month of Chisholm’s sophomore season has been nothing short of terrific. In 16 April games, Chisholm slashed .298/.344/.667 (192 OPS+), and the high-quality defense he flashed at second base last season (+5 DRS) seems to be holding up (+2 DRS in 136 innings).

Chisholm still has to figure out left-handed pitchers—and earn Don Mattingly’s trust to get substantial playing time against them—but fans in Miami should be looking to the Bahamian native as a star growing ever brighter.

MIA 2, WSH 1: López Blanks Nats

2022-04-27T22:48:45-04:00

Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images

López shuts down the Nats over 6 scoreless to secure MLB ERA lead, Aguilar goes yard.

When Jacob deGrom went down with an injury, it opened the door for somebody else to temporarily hold the “best pitcher in the sport” title. But who could have imagined Pablo López as a legitimate candidate for it?

López hasn’t been bad by any means, though. The right-hander had a 132 ERA+ (3.26) in 160 innings between 2020-2021, but he’s never one whose name you’d insert into the conversation with the likes of deGrom, Max Scherzer, or Corbin Burnes. However, with what he’s done so far this season, now, the narrative seems to be pointing him into that upper echelon of pitchers.

Following 6 shutout innings against the Nationals in Wednesday night’s 2-1 victory, López - who hasn’t allowed a run in his last 18.2 innings - now leads the Majors with a 0.39 ERA. The right-hander struck out 6 while scattering 3 hits and 1 walk.

Pablo López acaba de terminar su actuación de esta noche.

Su línea: 6.0 IP, 3 H, 0 C, 1 BB, 6 K.

Dejó su efectividad en 0.39, la mejor en todas las Grandes Ligas. #MakeItMiami - #ElExtrabase⚾️ pic.twitter.com/AZJhBNgIkV
— El Extrabase ⚾️ (@ElExtrabase) April 28, 2022

“He keeps doing his thing, even on a night when he didn’t feel his best,” said manager Don Mattingly.

With the win, Miami improves to 9-8, making for the first time the team has been over .500 since the final day of the 2020 season when they finished 31-29.

First baseman Jesús Aguilar collected his first extra-base hit, homering off of Erick Fedde in his 68th plate appearance of the season. The home run was Aguilar’s first since August 15th last season. He finished last season tied with the traded Adam Duvall for the team-leading 22 long balls.

Jesus Aguilar - Miami Marlins (1) pic.twitter.com/mYDSV1g9ao
— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) April 27, 2022

Fedde, who allowed 2 runs over 4.2 innings in the loss, has a career 1.70 ERA in 42.1 career innings against the Marlins.

The Fish would plate the deciding run in the top of the 5th following a bases loaded walk to Jorge Soler.

Miami would enter the bottom of the 8th cruising with a 2-0 lead before a two out error by the aforementioned Aguilar and miscommunication by Miguel Rojas and Jazz Chisholm on a Juan Soto pop up led to two walks and a run to cut the deficit to one. Manager Don Mattingly called upon closer Anthony Bender, who induced a long flyout from Yadiel Hernández. With the wind blowing on a cold D.C. night, where temperatures dipped into the high-40s, Hernández inning ending flyout had an xBA of .950 according to Statcast.

Bender would finish out the ballgame, allowing a two-out double to Maikel Franco before getting Lucius Fox to flyout to secure the victory and his 4th save of the season.

Looking Ahead

As Miami looks to be two games over .500 for the first time since 09/27/20, they’ll look to Trevor Rogers (0-3, 6.94 ERA) as Miami aims for the series sweep. Washington will counter with fellow left-hander Patrick Corbin (0-3, 11.20 ERA), with first pitch slated for 1:05 Eastern.

Of Note

Sánchez struggling: Following Wednesday’s 0-3, center fielder Jesús Sánchez has now gone 14 consecutive at-bats without a hit.
Per Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald, Pablo López is just the 6th Marlins pitcher to start a season with an ERA of 1 or lower over his first four starts, and first to do it since Josh Johnson (1.00) in 2011.
Bahamian brotherhood: Starting at second base for Nationals Wednesday night, Lucius Fox and Jazz Chisholm made for the first big league game since 4/22/61 to feature two Bahamian-born players. The two grew up childhood friends in their native Nassau.

Baseball Savant

MIA 5, ATL 4: One-Run Nail-Biter

2022-04-24T17:43:22-04:00

Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images

Luzardo goes 5 strong in victory, but Braves make it interesting late.

After Kyle Wright authored the best start of his young career Friday night, striking out 11 over 6 shutout innings, it appeared the Marlins’ early season woes were set to persist. For their sake, this would, fortunately, not be the case.

Getaway day in Atlanta proved an all-around effort for Miami walked away with a 5-4 victory over the Braves. Now 7-8, the Fish’s exit from Truist Park saw them take 2-of-3 from the defending World Champions.

“It’s huge for us to come over here and win a series in I don’t know how long,” said first baseman Garrett Cooper.

Eight of the team’s starters reached base safely Sunday, with the lone exception, Jesús Sánchez, taking an 0-for-5 on the day, punching out twice.

On the pitching side of things, Jesús Luzardo’s third start of the season proved effective, with the South Florida native striking out 8 over 5 innings of 1-run ball. Luzardo ran into some trouble in the 5th, working 4 3-ball counts before striking out Austin Riley to escape a bases-loaded jam.

“I thought Jesús kind of set the tone,” said manager Don Mattingly.

“He was getting everything over, he was ahead in the count before he lost the strike zone, but I thought he recovered well getting Riley there.”

Of his 87 pitches thrown, Luzardo generated 18 swings and misses, with his fastball routinely hitting 99-mph.

Huge strikeout by Jesús Luzardo. Great start from him and he holds the lead in the fifth.

Blows 98 upstairs by Austin Riley for his 8th K pic.twitter.com/SXNo1oWHHs
— Ethan Budowsky (@ethanbudowsky) April 24, 2022

In relief of Luzardo, the bullpen tandem of Cody Poteet, Richard Bleier, and Anthony Bass authored 3 scoreless frames. Bass would enter the game in the bottom of the 7th, only needing one pitch to roll a double-play ball off the bat of Riley.

Riley would, however, make things interesting in the 9th, as his two-run homer (4) off of Tanner Scott would cut Miami’s lead to 1. Newly acquired Louis Head would come in and strike out Adam Duvall and Eddie Rosario to collect his first career save.

Despite striking out 4 times, Avisaíl García added an RBI double to the scoring effort. Cooper, Joey Wendle, and Jacob Stallings would, too, drive in runs with two-base hits of their own.

#Marlins hold on, 5-4

- 2nd series W in 15 tries at Truist Park since opening in '17 (April 12-15, 2021)
- 1st career save for Louis Head (was a salesman a year ago)
- Garrett Cooper w/multiple RBIs in consecutive games for 1st time since May 20-22, 2021 pic.twitter.com/s3LRXKRX3H
— Christina De Nicola (@CDeNicola13) April 24, 2022

Looking Ahead

With Monday being a travel day, the Fish will resume play Tuesday as they make their way to the nation's capital for their first meeting with the Washington Nationals. Sandy Alcantara (1-0, 1.86 ERA) is slated to face off against Josiah Gray (2-1, 3.14 ERA), with first pitch scheduled for 7:05 Eastern.

Of Note

No-K, O-K: Joey Wendle exited play Sunday with more doubles RBI, and walks, 5 each, than strikeouts, 4, across his 48 plate appearances.
Bass-Master: Had he not gone out for the 8th, Anthony Bass would’ve become the 11th Marlins pitcher to record two outs on just one pitch. The feat was last accomplished by Brad Ziegler on 09/29/17, against Atlanta.
Before Scott’s 9th inning home run to Riley, the Miami bullpen had allowed 17 runs over 53.1 innings (2.87 ERA). Their collective 3.06 ERA entering play Sunday ranked 12th in the Majors and 5th in the NL.

Baseball-Savant

Miami Marlins (5) @ Atlanta Braves (4), Win Probability Graph, 24 April 2022

Jesús Aguilar: It Might Be Time to Face It

2022-04-21T09:30:51-04:00

Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images

How much longer can the Marlins expect to win with this kind of 1B production?

Through 11 games into the 2022 season, the Miami Marlins are sitting at 4-7. Surprisingly, the team entered play Wednesday with a 109 wRC+, good enough for 12th in the Majors. This, despite giving regular playing time to first baseman/designated hitter Jesús Aguilar.

The Venezuelan’s first two seasons in Miami were somewhat of a career renaissance. In 181 games between 2020-2021, Aguilar hit .265/.336/.458 (113 OPS+). His 30 HR and 127 RBI paced the club during that span.

But now, two weeks into a critical season of the club’s rebuild, manager Don Mattingly has penciled Aguilar’s name into the lineup in all but one game. He’s been rotating with Garrett Cooper between 1B and DH.

Through April 20, Aguilar has hit .171 with a .433 OPS in 42 plate appearances. In 5 games as a first baseman this year, he has fared especially poorly, hitting .167 with a .357 OPS.

Still no extra-base hits for Jesús Aguilar, but his single tonight had an exit velocity of 102.2 mph. Highest of the season so far.
— Fish Stripes (@fishstripes) April 21, 2022

The roots of Aguilar’s struggles can be traced back to 2021. Through August 15 of that season, he had a .823 OPS, hitting 22 home runs whilst driving in 86 in a slightly above-average 1.08 leverage index. Since the start of play the following day, among the 285 hitters with at least 100 plate appearances, Aguilar’s 44 wRC+ ranks in the bottom 10. He hasn’t homered once during that span, posting a league-worst .022 ISO (285th of 285) and accruing -0.7 fWAR.

Some of this may be attributed to a knee injury that cost Aguilar virtually the last month of play and required season-ending surgery. With few exceptions, he’s constantly making soft contact, translating to an 8th-percentile expected slugging percentage. Whatever the reason for his deep decline, continuing to put this version of Aguilar in such a prominent role is not conducive to winning games.

Baseball Savant

Jesús Aguilar’s 2022 Statcast Percentile Rankings

Meanwhile, Lewin Díaz is off to a hot start in AAA (.948 OPS in his first 13 G). Miami would be foolish to keep him down on the farm if that sustains much longer. We know too of Díaz’s prowess defensively, as he tied with Paul Goldschmidt for the league-wide lead in DRS at first base in 2021, saving 9 runs in just 258 ¹⁄₃ innings.

Aguilar, while serviceable at the position (+4 DRS since ‘21), turns 32 in June.

Questions surrounding Díaz’s bat are valid, as attested by a career 64 OPS+ in 169 plate appearances. However, the defensive value could do enough to offset him being a work-in-progress in that department.

With what the raw data illustrates, Jesús Aguilar has gone from a once-professional hitter to a glorified bench bat. On a club that has recently been unable to develop its core of position players, it’s getting difficult to continue justifying blocking a talented internal option like Díaz.