Fish Stripes: All Posts by John Butterworth

The Marlins have embraced the defensive shift

2019-03-07T07:30:00-05:00

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Bolstered by a new analytics department, the Marlins’ defensive strategy has shifted (what a pun).

Sliiiiiide the left, sliiiiiide to the right....

If you have danced the Cha-Cha Slide, you have essentially performed a baseball shift. Sliding fielder position to the left, right, or “taking it back now (y’all)” when a batter like Giancarlo Stanton comes to the plate has become an increasingly common practice around the league. Despite declining to shift for many years, the Miami Marlins recently embraced the trend.

The shift is a defensive strategy in which fielder position is adjusted in response to a specific batter. The theory is that the defense is playing the percentages—if a specific batter always hits to right field, moving more players to that location will likely result in an out.

As an example, let’s take a look at Curtis Granderson’s spray chart from 2018. He was among MLB’s most frequently shifted players, according to Statcast. Each dot on the chart represents a ball that was hit into play:

Figure 1. Curtis Granderson 2018 spray chart

The first thing that jumps out from this image is that Granderson pulls the ball. The second thing is that he pulls the ball on the ground. By deduction, if you just put everyone on the infield between first and second base, there is a high probability Granderson will be on the bench sooner rather than later. It is no surprise then that, of his 224 plate appearances where he put the ball in play, he faced the shift 200 times. 200!

Seems pretty simple, everybody is probably doing it...right? WRONG!

Oddly enough, the shift is one of the most contentious and confusing topics in baseball. Some people think the shift works, some people don’t think the shift works, and some people just hate the shift because they hate fun. There has even been talk of limiting shift usage.

Well, I’m not here to go down that rabbit hole. I am here to talk about the Marlins, and in particular, an interesting trend in the way the Marlins view the shift.

In 2016, the Marlins shifted during 1.6% of plate appearances, easily the lowest rate in baseball. The team with the next lowest shift rate that year, the Chicago Cubs, shifted on 4.6% of plate appearances. The MLB average was 13.8%.

In 2017, the Marlins mostly stuck with their Stone Age approach. They ranked 21st in shift frequency (8.5% of plate appearances).

However, in 2018, fresh off an overhaul of the analytics department, everything changed. The table below shows the three-year progression of the Marlins’ overall shift frequency, vs. right-handed hitters (RHH), and vs. left-handed hitters. The figure compares the overall frequency to league average.

Table 1. Shift frequency data for the Marlins from 2016-2018

Figure 2. Shift frequency per plate appearance: Marlins vs. league average

Look at that spike in 2018. The Marlins, after being a team that rarely shifted, did so on 22.5% of plate appearances. That number was the 9th-highest frequency in MLB last season, and well above the average shift frequency of 17.4%.

It’s no coincidence that 2018 was Miami’s first full year under new ownership. When speaking with Joe Frisaro last July, vice president of player development and scouting Gary Dembo—one of Derek Jeter’s many new hires—described the Marlins recent emphasis on analytics:

“The analytics department now has become one of the most valuable departments in the Marlins’ organization. The reason is, they’re affecting every single department. It’s pro scouting, amateur scouting, international scouting, baseball operations, the Major League team, and every one of our Minor League teams. It will have a major effect at the Trade Deadline as well.”

This is all well and good, but has the shift actually been working?

One way to analyze the results is batting average per balls in play (BABIP). BABIP measures how often a ball hit into the field of play—including catches made in foul territory and excluding home runs—falls for a hit. Over a full-season sample, this informs us about the effectiveness of a defense. A better defense is more likely to have a lower BABIP because more balls hit into play are converted into outs. One would also assume that shifting into optimal field positioning provided by the shift decreases opponent’s BABIP.

Let’s test that theory for the Marlins, specifically.

2016: .303 BABIP

2017: .298 BABIP

2018: .290 BABIP

So BABIP against decreased when the Marlins shifted more frequently. Wow! Success! The shift works!!!

While the numbers above are promising, they lack the depth we need to answer our question. How can be determine whether the shift was responsible for this defensive improvement?

To get a better answer, we need to look at the the BABIP against when the Marlins were shifted vs. when they were not shifted. From 2016-2018, the BABIP against when the Marlins shifted (.300) was actually slightly higher than when they didn’t shift (.296).

So the shift...doesn’t work? Or maybe it does? If you aren’t confused, then that makes one of us.

There are a number of additional factors to look at including pitcher effectiveness, prowess of individual fielders, opponent exit velocity, etc. Furthermore, there is growing evidence that batters are adjusting to the shift and increasing their launch angle to hit batted balls over the infield, including those hit for home runs.

The debate over the shift still rages on in the baseball community. We will have to trust that the Marlins analytics department knows what they are doing, that tailoring your positioning to the hitters’ tendencies is better than playing straight-up every play, that shifts do provide an advantage.

With Trey Hillman replacing Perry Hill as the new first base/infield coach, it will certainly be interesting to see how often the Marlins use the shift in 2019.

Data obtained from Fangraphs and the Baseball Savant.

Víctor Víctor Mesa suffers grade 1 hamstring strain

2019-02-26T12:26:38-05:00

Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images

The injury should sideline him for about three weeks

William Shakespeare, an avid baseball fan, once wrote in a moment of frustration: “the hamstring doth protest too much.” Despite the game not even existing in the late 1500s, Shakespeare’s analysis was spot on. His innate knowledge of the game was literally centuries ahead of his time.

On Sunday, Miami Marlins’ Víctor Víctor Mesa fell victim to the very thing Shakespeare was trying to warn us about centuries ago: a hamstring strain. Hamstring strains are typically graded on a 1 to 3 scale, with 1 being the least severe injury, and 3 being the most severe. A report from Joe Frisaro indicates that an MRI on Tuesday showed Víctor Mesa suffered a Grade 1 strain, which is a promising development.

An MRI has revealed that Víctor Víctor Mesa suffered a Grade 1 right hamstring strain on Sunday. There wasn't great footage of the injury itself, so here is 11 seconds of him "walking gingerly" with coaches and training staff in the aftermath https://t.co/QXCWGzII6e pic.twitter.com/OYcyGquRNF
— Fish Stripes (@fishstripes) February 26, 2019

The hamstring is a group of three muscles that extends the hip, flexes the knee, and inwardly rotates the lower leg when it is bent. A Grade 1 strain means that these muscles have been overstretched, but usually not torn (there is a possibility of having minor tears). Depending on the strain’s severity, the player may or may not be able to bear weight. Fortunately for the Marlins, Grade 1 strains usually need around three weeks of rehab. One study in 2011 found that it took an average of 24 days for MLB players to return from any type of hamstring strain. As Víctor Mesa’s strain is Grade 1, you’d expect him to beat that number.

Hamstring issues are a common cause of DL stints in the MLB. Magneuris Sierra and Braxton Lee were among the Marlins players who missed time last season for that reason. The 2011 study mentioned above found that these injuries are often suffered early in the baseball season while a player is running to first base.

Sound familiar? Sound really familiar? Yep, you guessed it, Víctor Mesa suffered his injury while running to first base...

For Víctor Mesa, effective rehab is critical. There is no need to rush him back and possibly risk further injury. Hamstrings can have a nagging quality and easily flare up if not properly rehabbed. Víctor Mesa is an important piece for the Marlins’ future—emphasis on future. We can wait a few more weeks before seeing him in action again.

Factors that increase a pitcher’s injury risk: A focus on Sixto Sánchez

2019-02-25T08:00:00-05:00

@sixto03_sanchez/Instagram

Concerns about Sánchez’s velocity, overuse, and mechanics may be overblown

With the trade of J.T. Realmuto to the Philadelphia Phillies, the Miami Marlins received a player worthy of fans’ attention: Sixto Sánchez. Heading into the 2019 season, MLB.com’s MLB Pipeline ranks Sánchez as the 27th-best prospect in the minors, while Baseball Prospectus ranks him 23rd. He is widely regarded as the finest asset in the Marlins farm system.

Here at Fish Stripes, we already detailed why Sánchez is an exciting young prospect—his combination of velocity and pinpoint accuracy are special.

Yummy. However, concerns have been raised about his durability. In 2018, Sánchez only had eight appearances before being shut down in early June with right elbow inflammation.

For all his potential, is Sánchez at risk for an injury-plagued career? And for that matter, can we even identify pitchers at high risk for injury? Do we know ANYTHING?

The short answer? Determining pitcher injury risk is an inexact science. Thankfully, a growing body of research has begun to shed light on the root cause of shoulder and elbow injuries.

Below, I am going to take you all on a lovely journey through three potential aspects that could predispose Sánchez to injury. I’m going to be busting myths, raising some concerns, and at the end you will either love me or love me. You read that right. Let’s begin.

Pitching Velocity

Sánchez throws hard, like triple digits hard. Is that a concern?

Everyone who has been around baseball has heard something like this before: “X/Y/Z pitcher throws pretty hard. I’m worried about his elbow. Might as well call the doc now for Tommy John surgery, it is only a matter of time.”

Velocity is a hot-button issue in the pitcher injury world. In one FanGraphs post, Baseball Prospectus Milwaukee’s Julien Assouline used data from Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs amassing a data set of close to 1,600 pitchers to look at how velocity relates to pitcher injury. In the article, Assouline groups pitchers into “velocity buckets,” determining the proportion of pitchers who received TJ surgery in each “bucket.” He concluded that a higher proportion of players who pitched faster received surgery.

Well, I have an objection to this type of analysis: it does not have an appropriate design to pinpoint velocity as the primary reason these pitchers needed Tommy John surgery. In scientific research, it is important to have a study population—in this case, “Pitchers who underwent Tommy John surgery”—matched to an appropriate comparison group (“Pitchers who did not undergo Tommy John surgery”). Pitchers in each group should be as physically similar as possible, except for the fact that one group received Tommy John surgery and the other did not. Groups should be similar in ways you might not even think about, including age, weight, mechanics, etc.

Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images

Brent Suter post-surgery

So, why do we try and match characteristics of study groups and comparison groups? In this analysis, failing to do so makes it more difficult to understand what is increasing injury risk. For example, rookie right-hander Michael Kopech and journeyman southpaw Brent Suter each required Tommy John late last season. Yes, they are on opposite ends of the fastball velo spectrum, but we cannot overlook the countless differences in their styles and pedigree.

Luckily for us, a different study published in 2016 in the Journal of Shoulder and Elbow Surgery actually asked the very question we are pondering: is velocity associated with risk of Tommy John injury? They used a Tommy John surgery group and a comparison group matched for pitcher weight, height, age, handedness, pitcher role (starter/reliever), MLB experience, and number of innings pitched. Our savior is here!!!

What did they find? MLB pitchers requiring Tommy John surgery did not pitch faster than healthy pitchers not requiring the surgery. However, they did find that pitchers requiring surgery pitched a higher percentage of fastballs overall (46.7% vs. 39.4%).

I tend to gravitate toward this study due to its effective design. It tells us that velocity alone is unlikely to be a major factor in predisposing a pitcher to injury. Still, the association with high fastball usage and risk for injury does raise some eyebrows. We can only speculate why this is the case. Could it be mechanics related, or does throwing hard at a certain frequency risk injury?

So, for everyone worried about Sánchez hitting triple digits, fear not. Let the kid throw!

Overuse at a young age

This section is going to be quick, but I do think it is worth mentioning that overuse in youth can increase a pitcher’s risk for injury. One 2011 study published in the American Journal of Sports Medicine found that of 481 children aged 9-14, those who threw greater than 100 pitches per year were 3.5 times more likely to be injured within 10 years.

Overuse increases the wear and tear on the elbow/shoulder. At a younger age, our bodies are more malleable, meaning that certain forces such as the repeated stress of throwing can even change a child’s anatomy.

Another research study found that 94% of youth pitchers they analyzed had radiographic evidence (such as X-ray, etc.) of anatomic changes to their elbow. It is possible that these types of anatomic changes could increase these pitchers’ risk for injury later in life.

Was Sánchez overused in his youth? That is a question we can’t answer. It may have contributed to his right elbow injury in June 2018. Definitely something to monitor, but for now I wouldn’t be too worried. Or...maybe do be worried? I can’t control you.

Pitching Mechanics

Now moving on to what I find to be the most interesting part of this discussion.

Back in 2016, I wrote two articles for Fish Stripes that remain relevant, one covering Wei-Yin Chen’s mechanics, and the other analyzing the mechanics of the late great José Fernández. I am going to steal from my Chen article because I think it has an accurate description of how pitching mechanics can predispose a player to injury:

Ideal pitching mechanics effectively transfer energy from the legs, to the torso, to the arm. Timing each movement perfectly is critical to minimize stress on the throwing shoulder/elbow. Research has shown that it is especially important to synchronize a pitcher’s trunk/torso rotation with the throwing arm. A 2015 study in the Orthopaedic Journal of Sports Medicine at Medstar Washington Hospital Center found that early trunk rotation, defined as “ trunk rotation before the stride foot hit the ground and occurrence of non-vertical arm position at initiation of trunk rotation,” increases risk of shoulder and/or elbow injuries in MLB pitchers.

Here is a sketch of early trunk rotation from the 2015 paper:

If the trunk begins to rotate toward home plate before the arm is vertical, there is an improper energy transfer into the throw. This can cause a pitcher to overthrow in order maintain velocity, which can be dangerous. It also causes rotational strain on the elbow and shoulder due to an excessive whipping motion of the non-vertical throwing arm, as it is forced to quickly move into a vertical position and explode through a throw.

Below is a five-panel snapshot of Sánchez’s mechanics. Let’s take a look to see if we think he has early trunk rotation:

We see some encouraging signs here, and I’ve labeled them in the third panel above. Sánchez’s arm position is vertical as his stride foot touches down, his shoulder is still raised, and perhaps most importantly, his trunk has not or only just begun to rotate towards home plate. These mechanics appear to effectively transfer energy from his legs to his torso to his arm.

Sánchez is not overly reliant on his arm to produce fastball velocity; he has an effectively coordinated sequence of movements that include his entire body. This should decrease the stress on his throwing shoulder and elbow. I like what I’m seeing!

Now, as I mentioned earlier, determining pitcher injury risk is an inexact science. It is difficult to predict whether Sánchez will suffer a major injury in the future, as many factors—some beyond the pitcher’s control, others still undiscovered—contribute to pitcher injuries.

However, in Sánchez’s case, I do think that the “velocity concern” is overblown. More importantly, it does appear that Sánchez’s delivery effectively minimizes stress on his throwing shoulder/arm. This indicates he may have long-term durability.

I get why many of us feel uncomfortable about Sánchez’s 2018 injury, and the fact that he only pitched eight games last year. I am bothered by that, too. What was the issue? Was it overuse, or is there something mechanical we are not seeing?

Simply put, these guys throw baseballs for a living. It’s an unnatural motion for the human body, and repeatedly doing it will always lead to wear and tear. Name me a pitcher who hasn’t suffered from elbow soreness in his career...I’m waiting.

Jorge Alfaro will swing at anything

2019-02-20T07:00:00-05:00

Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

Improving Alfaro’s plate discipline is key to increasing his offensive output

The first pitch of an at-bat is often a pivotal moment that can define the encounter.

Certain players, such as José Altuve, are lauded for their “first-pitch aggressiveness.” In fact, in January 2018, MLB.com’s Matt Kelly published an article attributing part of Altuve’s 2017 AL MVP season to his aggressive approach at the plate. That year, he swung a league-high 279 times at the first pitch while sporting a healthy .449 batting average when those balls were put in play.

However, for less talented/polished players, that plate approach backfires.

I’d love to tell you the Miami Marlins recently acquired a player who embodies Altuve’s aggressiveness with his success. They certainly got one part of the equation. Jorge Alfaro: the man whose swings are so frequent, free, and loose it is almost like the baseball doesn’t even contact the bat because, well...it frequently doesn’t.

Photo by Hunter Martin/Getty Images

Typically when we analyze a batter’s “patience,” we look at his swing tendencies. A batter’s swing tendencies are the likelihoods that he will swing at certain pitches. As you would expect, a more “aggressive” batter tends to swing more frequently—both in general and on pitches outside the zone.

Labeling Alfaro as aggressive would seem like an understatement. He will swing at anything, and this can get him into trouble.

Alfaro is no stranger to the 0-1 count. In fact, of 27 catchers with more than 300 plate appearances in 2018, Alfaro suffered a first pitch strike third-most frequently (66.8% of the time). Why, you might ask? Just take a look for yourself at his zone profile:

Figure 1. Alfaro’s percentage of swings per first pitch across his zone profile in 2018

Alfaro swings at first pitches in various locations around the strike zone. What you may notice is there’s a lot of red outside the zone, too. Last season, pitchers liked to attack Alfaro below the strike zone, and why not? He swung at 34.7% of pitches in that location.

Of the pitches he swung at, the Phillies rookie frequently failed to make contact. Take a look at this next zone profile showing Alfaro’s whiffs per swing on first pitches—essentially the number of swings where he does not make contact.

Figure 2. Alfaro’s percentage of whiffs per first pitch swing across his zone profile in 2018

Not great. Not only did he miss 61.8% of the first pitches he swung at below the zone, but he also whiffed frequently elsewhere.

Digging deeper, we can do a little math to determine the probability of Alfaro swinging and missing at first pitches low and outside the strike zone. To determine the probability that a sequence of events will occur, you multiply the probabilities of each individual event (Alfaro’s swing probability times Alfaro’s whiff rate on these swings):

34.7%*61.8%=21.4%

Pitchers facing Alfaro generated a swing and miss on 21.4% of first pitches below the zone. This means pitchers were able to generate a safe 0-1 count one in every five times that they either misfired or targeted beneath his knees. This isn’t even counting the pitches that he fouled off, etc.

This is so critical because Alfaro struggles when falling behind in the count. In 2018, Alfaro slashed .216/.254/.296 with a .244 wOBA when down 0-1 in the count, versus .308/.402/.538 with a .386 wOBA when up 1-0. So, for Alfaro, the first pitch is almost a make-or-break event.

Unfortunately, Alfaro’s problems don’t stop at the first pitch. His aggressiveness gets him in trouble throughout an at-bat, as he swings wildly and often whiffs.

Take a look at the chart below in which I rank Alfaro’s 2018 swing percentage (swing%), swing and miss percentage (miss%), swing percentage on pitches outside the zone (O-swing%), and swing and miss percentage on pitches outside the zone (O-miss%) versus 27 other catchers (min. 300 PA):

Table 1. Jorge Alfaro’s 2018 swing tendencies and league rank when compared to 27 other catchers who had a minimum of 300 plate appearances.

The numbers are disheartening. Not only did Alfaro swing the most of any other catcher with a minimum of 300 plate appearances in 2018, but he also had the most swings and misses. Even worse, he swung the second-most frequently at pitches outside the zone, and missed a staggering 57.10% of those swings—the most among all catchers included in this analysis. Oh, and did I mention he struck out in 36.6% of his at-bats in 2018? Yikes.

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It’s a dramatic contrast in styles from old friend J.T. Realmuto. He ranked 14th, 18th, 17th and 17th in these categories, respectively.

So what does this all mean? Alfaro swings, and boy does he swing a lot. The problem is he also misses a lot. This poor plate discipline causes him to fall behind in the count frequently, a position in which he struggles.

Now what? We have to hope that Mike Pagliarulo and the Marlins hitting staff recognizes the 25-year-old’s wild swing tendencies, and works with him to improve plate discipline. The Marlins want “1-0 Alfaro,” the guy who slashes that beautiful .308/.402/.538 line and authors so many electrifying highlights. Please, leave a “0-1 Alfaro” back in Philly (or at least minimize his number of appearances).

Data obtained from Fangraphs and Brooks Baseball.

Old friend Dan Haren is still as funny as ever

2016-08-04T02:30:04-04:00

Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images

Dan Haren’s Twitter is must-read entertainment.

To say I love perusing Dan Haren’s twitter would be an understatement. He is a titan of self-deprecating humor, and even his twitter handle, @ithrow88, will bring a smile to your face. Haren only spent a short time with the Miami Marlins after being acquired via trade from the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2015, but his tenure with the team wasn’t without drama.

Upon being traded from the Dodgers, Haren considered retirement because ~~Miami’s beaches and warmth reminded him nothing of southern California~~ he did not want to move far away from his family. Marlins’ fans opinions of Haren may still be mixed due to the drama his potential retirement created, but I would urge anyone who still feels random, deep, unexplained negative feelings toward Haren to read his twitter.

With the MLB trade deadline approaching earlier this week, Haren revisited his own trade experience from 2015 in hilarious fashion:

The trade deadline just doesn't seem the same without me being every team's fallback option. Oh wait.... pic.twitter.com/sw3bUoYoGo
— dan haren (@ithrow88) July 31, 2016

For those of you that don’t remember, the Marlins traded Haren to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for prospects Elliot Soto and Ivan Pineyro after he posted a 3.42 ERA with a 4.62 FIP prior to the deadline. This was the fifth time that Haren had been traded during his career. He retired from baseball at the end of 2015, but has been active on twitter since.

Check below for another hilarious rant from Haren back in January:

I'm on an exercise bike, bored, so here are some things about my baseball career that come to mind......
— dan haren (@ithrow88) January 4, 2016

I went into almost every start the last few years thinking... How the hell am I gonna get these guys out
— dan haren (@ithrow88) January 4, 2016

There's was atleast 3-4 times I thought the team plane was gonna crash.
— dan haren (@ithrow88) January 4, 2016

I would count out the days about a month in advance to see if I was gonna pitch in Coors field.
— dan haren (@ithrow88) January 4, 2016

One of my favorite moment ever was hitting a homer off Chris carpenter. I took my time running the bases.
— dan haren (@ithrow88) January 4, 2016

I gave up 11 runs in Toronto and got the win one time.
— dan haren (@ithrow88) January 4, 2016

I had to take Imodium most days I pitched to plug myself up.
— dan haren (@ithrow88) January 4, 2016

My only superstition was to make sure I had 2 glasses of wine the night before I pitched. This ties in with the Imodium,
— dan haren (@ithrow88) January 4, 2016

Why the hell did Bj Upton hit so many homers off me..... This probably ties into the last tweet as well. I did much better facing Melvin
— dan haren (@ithrow88) January 4, 2016

My threat to retire didn't quite work last offseason
— dan haren (@ithrow88) January 4, 2016

Sometimes when the count was 3-1, I would just throw it down the middle and hope for the best. People pop up in batting practice right
— dan haren (@ithrow88) January 4, 2016

How mad were you when you had to go cover 1st? @ithrow88
— Anthony Rizzo (@ARizzo44) January 4, 2016

When your 1st baseman is pushing 300lb's, you gotta bust your ass over. https://t.co/yFvxO2J2lJ
— dan haren (@ithrow88) January 4, 2016

Justin Bour expected to return Friday

2016-08-03T16:01:02-04:00

Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

The Marlins are planning for Justin Bour to return this Friday against the Rockies.

For those of you waiting for news on Miami Marlins’ first baseman Justin Bour, wait no longer. Apparently, the plan is for Bour to return on Friday against the Colorado Rockies.

Plan is for #Marlins first baseman Justin Bour to play Tues/Wed w/ @zephyrsbaseball and hope he is ready for Friday at #Rockies
— Joe Frisaro (@JoeFrisaro) August 2, 2016

Bour landed on the disabled list after suffering a high ankle sprain on July 2nd against the Atlanta Braves. His power in the middle of the lineup has been greatly missed, as he was slashing .268/.347/.526 with 15 home runs and a .364 wOBA prior to his injury.

Bour began his rehab assignment with the New Orleans Zephyrs last Friday, July 29th. For the Zephyrs, he has batted .100/.182/.100 with a .148 wOBA, but there is no need to worry. The purpose of a rehab assignment is to prepare a player for his return to the active roster, and Bour certainly needs some time to re-acclimate to the game after missing nearly a full month. In all likelihood, Bour’s return to the Marlins’ lineup will provide another power bat for the stretch run.

Realmuto joins Lucroy and Posey in breaking catcher stereotypes

2016-08-02T10:04:49-04:00

Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

Who says catchers can’t hit? JT Realmuto has had a breakout offensive season.

What do you envision when you think of a prototypical baseball catcher? In Bill James “defensive spectrum,” catcher is considered the most difficult position to play. Thus, catchers are thought of as defensive specialists who control the run game and work with the pitcher to game plan against the opposition. They are often forgiven for offensive ineptitude due to the defensive rigor of the position.

The catcher for half of the 30 MLB teams that played this past sunday batted in either the eighth or the ninth spot in the lineup. Good hitting backstops are a rarity, but a few players, such as Jonathan Lucroy and Buster Posey, have begun to break the conventional mold. Fortunately for the Miami Marlins, J.T. Realmuto is also one of those players.

Being an MLB catcher is physically and mentally draining

The physical demands required of a catcher are simply the most rigorous of any position in the sport of baseball. In an interview with NPR, Brett Ausmus once described the physical toll catching took on his body by explaining how difficult it was for him to climb the stairs:

“I remember walking up the stairs one season when I had a newborn, and I'd walk halfway up the landing and I'd have to rest. There is a physical demand, mostly on your legs.”

As one would expect, squatting for hours a day wears down a player’s body, and we can see proof of this in Ausmus’ struggles even off the field. Further confirmation of this truth can be found by simply looking at the average games played for starters at each position. Take a look at the table below.

Table 1. Average games played by starters at each position in 2016

So far this season, starting catchers have played 13 games less, on average, than any other position player. That is a direct result of the physical demands of the position. However, catching is not all physical - it is a position that also takes incredible mental fortitude.

Here is an Ausmus’ quote describing the mental checklist he goes through before every pitch:

“[I'm thinking] what's the score, what inning are we in, how many outs, what's this hitter's weakness, what's this pitcher's strengths, who's on deck, who could pinch hit, who is up after the hitter on deck — and you kind of go through all of these things in an instant. And then you make a decision and put down the next signal.”

Catchers have an immeasurable amount of pressure on them due to the unique nature of the position. They work directly with the pitcher to analyze each hitter’s strengths and weaknesses in order to determine how to attack them. For a glimpse of this preparation, here is a quote from A.J. Ellis describing what it is like to prepare for a game with Clayton Kershaw.

“Before each of Clayton’s starts, he and I, with pitching coach Rick Honeycutt, sit down together two hours before the game. Clayton dictates that entire meeting, running through the starting lineup in detail. “Here’s what I want to do … ” Hitter after hitter.”

Are you beginning to understand why teams might be more forgiving when their backstop is having a poor offensive season? Let’s take a closer look at how catchers stack up against the rest of the league offensively.

Catchers as a whole are below average offensively

Below is a table that includes common statistics and advanced metrics to compare catchers to league average batters in 2016.

Table 2. Catchers are below average hitters

The numbers speak for themselves. Catchers do not stack up very well offensively against league average, whether you look at advanced metrics or not. Not only are catchers, on average, poor hitters, they are also poor baserunners.

In the above table, UBR stands for Ultimate Base Running. Ultimate base running is a counting statistic developed by Fangraphs that measures the value a player adds to a team via base running (excluding successful or unsuccessful stolen bases). As you would expect, due to the demand the position has on a player’s legs, catchers as a whole are poor base runners. Luckily for the Marlins, however, Realmuto has been far from your stereotypical, average catcher this season.

J.T. Realmuto is not your stereotypical catcher

Let’s take a look at the Table 2 again with Realmuto’s stats included.

Table 3. Realmuto is having a breakout offensive season

No matter what metric you look at, Realmuto has been above league average offensively this season. Not the stats you would expect from your typical catcher. Most interestingly, he has been an above average baserunner - with a 1.8 UBR. In fact, by the UBR metric, Realmuto is the best base running catcher in the entire league. So, despite playing a position that takes an incredible physical toll on his legs, Realmuto is able to run the bases well. Incredible!

What makes Realmuto’s 2016 season so impressive is that he hitting well at a position that, historically, does not generate a lot of offensive production. Today, strong offensive catchers have become such a rarity that most casual baseball fans can name many of them offhand: Buster Posey, Jonathan Lucroy, Brian McCann. Hopefully, in the near future, Realmuto’s name will join the casual fan’s list. He is certainly headed in the right direction.

Data obtained from Fangraphs.

Marlins sending Rea back to Padres, Luis Castillo back to Marlins

2016-08-01T13:54:00-04:00

Photo by Rob Foldy/Getty Images

The Marlins have reportedly agreed to send Rea back to the Padres.

On Friday the Miami Marlins reached a deal with the San Diego Padres to acquire starting pitchers Andrew Cashner and Colin Rea. Today, the Marlins are reportedly using a cheat code to call a “redo” and undo part of that trade.

Luis Castillo is returning to the Marlins in the deal, according to Rosenthal.

Not yet sure how reworked #Marlins-#Padres deal will look. Told that MIA is “trading” Rea back to SD, keeping Cashner.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) August 1, 2016

Source: #Marlins getting Luis Castillo back, with Rea returning to #Padres.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) August 1, 2016

Rea left his first start with the Marlins on Saturday after injuring his elbow. He was subsequently sent to the disabled list and was scheduled to have an MRI today. This news may indicate that the elbow injury is worse than originally feared, and possibly that there was some clause in the trade that allowed the Marlins to rework the deal if either player suffered an injury. Rea was pitching to a 4.82 ERA with a 4.61 FIP this season.

We will keep you updated here on Fishstripes as soon as more information is released.

Trade Deadline: Marlins' playoff competition watch

2016-08-01T10:43:28-04:00

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Check here for trade rumors pertaining to the Marlins' playoff competition!

The MLB trade deadline is today at 4pm ET, and you can expect to see a flurry of moves across the league. On Friday morning, the Miami Marlins jumped into the fray adding Andrew Cashner and Colin Rea in a blockbuster seven player deal. Teams competing with the Marlins for a playoff spot are sure to look to improve their rosters, and we will keep you updated here when relevant news breaks.

Washington Nationals (61-44, 1st NL Central)

The Nationals have already begun to improve their roster, acquiring closer Mark Melancon from the Pittsburgh Pirates.

.@Nationals acquire RHP Mark Melancon from @Pirates for LHPs Felipe Rivero, Taylor Hearn. #MLBOnTheMove pic.twitter.com/14kJRB60Wu
— MLBRosterMoves (@MLBRosterMoves) July 30, 2016

Los Angeles Dodgers (59-46, 1st NL Wild Card)

The Dodgers have been linked to a number of players, as expected from a team with a top tier farm system that is competing for a playoff spot. They may look to add another pitcher, due to their unlucky rash of injuries at the position Just take a look at these names on the disabled list: Clayton Kershaw, Hyun-jin Ryu, Brett Anderson, and Alex Wood.

In fact, Marlins' fans and Dodgers' fans understand each other's plights quite well. Bud Norris, acquired by the Dodgers from the Atlanta Braves on July 1st, left his start last night with an injury. A recently acquired pitcher that leaves due to an injury... sound familiar?

Dodgers pursue Archer, Moore and Bruce as trade deadline approaches https://t.co/XCzAP0Y3fE
— L.A. Times Sports (@latimessports) July 31, 2016

More starting pitching rumors centering around the Dodgers:

#Dodgers and #Rays remain in trade talks, with Tampa Bay starters the focus, as I just reported on @MLBNetwork. @MLB
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) August 1, 2016

Names of interest in @whitesox Sale/Quintana talks w/@Dodgers: LHP Julio Urias, 1B-OF Clay Bellinger, OF Alex Verdugo, 2B Willie Calhoun.
— Phil Rogers (@philgrogers) August 1, 2016

Major Update:

The Dodgers have made a big deal with the Athletics to acquire Josh Reddick and Rich Hill. They didn't come cheap, as the Dodgers gave up three of their top pitching prospects Frankie Montas, Grant Holmes, and Jharel Cotton:

JUST IN: the #Dodgers reportedly acquire Josh Reddick and Rich Hill from the #Athletics.

(via @Ken_Rosenthal) pic.twitter.com/lrP6Y543r6
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) August 1, 2016

Sources: Frankie Montas, Grant Holmes and Jharel Cotton going to #Athletics. @Jeffpassan first on Montas.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) August 1, 2016

The Dodgers also pick up reliever Jesse Chavez at the deadline:

The Dodgers acquired RHP Jesse Chavez and cash considerations from the @BlueJays in exchange for RHP Mike Bolsinger.
— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) August 1, 2016

St. Louis Cardinals (56-49, 3rd NL Wild Card)

Like the Nationals, the Cardinals have already made a deal to acquire some help for their bullpen. They added lefty Zach Duke from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for outfielder Charlie Tilson.

Cardinals have acquired Zach Duke from the White Sox: https://t.co/ZSmqRXH5dJ
— MLB Daily Dish (@mlbdailydish) July 31, 2016

New York Mets (54-50, 4th NL Wild Card)

The Mets are looking for a help at number of key positions, including catcher, outfield, and relief pitcher. Most notably, they have been linked to Jay Bruce.

So the Mets are reportedly now the favorites for Jay Bruce. https://t.co/ta9Z5SrN56
— Joe Giglio (@JoeGiglioSports) August 1, 2016

The Mets are on the verge of finishing a deal for Jay Bruce.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) August 1, 2016

They have also been linked to Los Angeles Angels reliever Joe Smith:

Could #Angels Joe Smith be solution to #Mets bullpen needs? https://t.co/8Lu2agU6lD pic.twitter.com/iNBJ0Yc7yn
— MLB Trade Rumors (@mlbtraderumors) July 30, 2016

Mets are showing interest in Tampa Bay Rays' Steve Pearce:

#Mets among clubs to show interest in #Rays INF/OF Steve Pearce. @MLB
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) August 1, 2016

Major Update:

The Mets get Bruce:

Welcome to New York, Jay Bruce! We've acquired Jay Bruce from Cincinnati for Dilson Herrera and Max Wotell. #Mets pic.twitter.com/FD2XN3NQDB
— New York Mets (@Mets) August 1, 2016

Jon Niese is returning to the Mets

Report: Jon Niese has been traded back to the @Mets pic.twitter.com/GjOJx0tDWA
— SportsNet New York (@SNYtv) August 1, 2016

Other Major Updates:

The San Francisco Giants have added a reliever, but paid a hefty price.

Bickford and Susac for Will Smith. Deal is done.
— Alex Pavlovic (@AlexPavlovic) August 1, 2016

The Giants also pried away Matt Moore from the Rays in a last minute deal:

Can confirm, as many others have, that Matt Duffy is going to Tampa in the Moore deal. Surprising.
— Chris Cotillo (@ChrisCotillo) August 1, 2016

Despite receiving some solid pieces, the Giants traded away a lot of talent:

The Giants traded three of their top five prospects + Matt Duffy today for Will Smith and Matt Moore. Huh.
— Molly Knight (@molly_knight) August 1, 2016

Keep checking back for more updates as the day progresses!

Phelps’ fastball velocity and variety are key to his success

2016-07-29T19:01:03-04:00

Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images

Phelps’ ability to throw off a hitter’s timing has helped him become an extremely effective setup reliever.

After Carter Capps suffered a season ending UCL tear, the Miami Marlins’ bullpen looked to be in shambles.

Many wondered who would serve as the primary setup reliever to A.J. Ramos, especially after Mike Dunn landed on the disabled list in early April. Surprisingly, the bullpen, originally thought to be a weakness, has actually become a strength. One of the main reasons for its success is the emergence of David Phelps as an excellent setup man.

This season, Phelps has amassed an impressive 2.79 ERA with a 2.85 FIP. His 11.32 K/9 is well above the 8.64 K/9 league average for relief pitchers, and he has allowed less hard contact vs. league average (25.4% hard contact vs. a league average 30.5%). Those numbers are especially eye-popping because Phelps has spent his career as an average to below average starter/occasional relief pitcher. Advanced metrics tell us that Phelps is better than he ever has been before. Take a look at the table below to see for yourself.

Table 1. David Phelps advanced statistics 2012-2015 vs. 2016

When evaluating a pitcher, the trifecta of FIP, xFIP, tERA is usually considered the gold standard. As you can see, no matter what metric you choose, Phelps is simply pitching better this season than he ever has in the past. I included BABIP in this table because I found it interesting that it increased in 2016 compared to his career average. The fact that Phelps has produced the best statistical year of his career while simultaneously having a higher BABIP is support for the argument that Phelps has actually been good, rather than lucky.

How has Phelps pitched so well this season? The answer lies in his changing approach to hitters after a full time switch to reliever. First, as many starters experience when converting to relief duty, Phelps’ velocity has increased substantially. Just take a look at these velocity charts for Phelps’ four-seam and two-seam fastballs.

Figure 1. Velocity chart David Phelps’ four-seam fastball

Figure 2. Velocity chart David Phelps’ two-seam fastball

The average velocity has increased from 90.7 to 93.8 mph on Phelps’ four-seamed fastball, and from to 90.6 to 93.3 mph on Phelps’ two-seamed fastball. Phelps’ increase in velocity helps him two-fold. First, in general, faster pitches are more difficult for a batter to square up. Second, is that Phelps has increased the average velocity difference between his fastball and breaking pitches.

For example, the average velocity difference between Phelps’ fastball and changeup has increased from 7.7 mph to 8.8 mph, a full 1.1 mph difference. Therefore, with effective pitch sequencing, Phelps has increased the perceived velocity of his fastball. This is part of the overall theory of Effective Velocity, a term coined by baseball analyst Perry Husband. I won’t get too bogged down into the details, but Jason Turbow of SB Nation wrote an excellent long-form piece about Effective Velocity in 2014. In the article, Husband explains how differences in pitch speed can impact a hitter’s timing:

“Hitters are like sharks to blood. When they see two pitches in the same place and at same speed, they begin very quickly to be able to time them, and when they can time them, they attack. But that timing maxes out at about a 6-mph difference in pitch speeds."

Effective Velocity is impacted by pitch location, sequencing, and changes in pitch speed. In the above quote, Husband indicates that it is difficult for batters to time their swing when a pitcher alters the speed of subsequent pitches by over 6 mph. The difference between Phelps’ fastball and changeup is over 8 mph, meaning that with correct sequencing and location, Phelps is able to really throw off a hitter’s rhythm. This improvement in Effective Velocity alone would have helped Phelps this season, but incredibly he found another way to throw off hitters: by including a cutter more frequently in his pitch repertoire.

Phelps throws one of his three fastballs (four-seamed fastball, two-seamed fastball, or cutter) 82.3 % of the time. Here is the actual breakdown of his pitch usage and something I will talk about after you look at the figure: their horizontal movement.

Table 2. David Phelps’ fastball have similar velocity but different movement

Horizontal movement measures the amount of lateral movement a pitch has in inches, on average. A “negative” horizontal movement means that the ball runs towards right handed pitchers, positive means it runs away. What stands out in the above table is that Phelps’ fastballs have similar velocity but radically different horizontal movement. This makes the ball incredibly difficult to read coming out of his hand, as the pitches appear similar but in fact move very differently. Phelps’ fastball mix combined with his high Effective Velocity makes it very difficult to square up his pitches - and there is proof of this fact.

Let’s look at some sabermetric stats to see how difficult it is for hitters to square up Phelps’ fastballs. One way to analyze how difficult a pitch is to read is by looking at its foul per swing and whiff per swing percentages. Essentially, if a batter is having difficulty squaring up a pitch he is likely to whiff on it or foul it off. Here is a table at the whiff per swing and foul per swing percentages for each of Phelps’ fastballs.

Table 3. Foul per swing and whiff per swing percentage on Phelps’ fastballs

For Phelps’ four-seam fastball, its foul/swing percentage is 50.58% and its whiff/swing percentage is 28.49%. This means that batters only put Phelps’ fastball in play on 20.93% of their swings. That is staggering, especially since Phelps uses the four-seam fastball most frequently (37.7% of the time). When your favorite and most common pitch is so difficult to hit, you will be successful. To put that in perspective, the whiff/swing percentage on Aroldis Chapman’s four-seam fastball is 32.66%, and the foul/swing percentage is 45.16%. Therefore, batters put Chapman’s four-seam fastball in play on 22.18% of their swings. That means that batters put a higher percentage of Chapman’s four-seam fastballs in play than Phelps’ four-seam fastballs.

Even though we can’t fully attribute Phelps’ successful season to his increased Effective Velocity and three pitch fastball mix, it seems that these are definitely important factors in his improvement this year. Throwing off a hitter’s timing is key to a pitcher’s success, and Phelps’ has become a master at this skill. The proof is in the pudding, as by all measures, Phelps has had a fantastic year.

Data obtained from Brooks Baseball and Fangraphs.