Fish Stripes: All Posts by andrew Werdal

2021 Marlins Season Review: José Devers

2022-01-21T07:00:00-05:00

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

José Devers’ jump to the Bigs.

No 2021 Miami Marlin so plainly illustrated the demands of Major League Baseball like José Devers. With just 41 plate appearances by the rookie, he sketched out the difficulty of hitting at the highest level.

Now, prior to 2021 you might’ve known José as a prospect. Part of the Giancarlo Stanton trade, the 6’0” Devers profiled like a throwback middle infielder who lacks over-the-fence power (the anti-Dan Uggla). Cousin of Boston Red Sox standout Rafael Devers, he had limited experience against mature competition entering his age-21 season—he previously played exhibition games in the Grapefruit League and Dominican Winter League, but had yet to advance above High-A during the regular season.

A lot can be said for the talent at the Major League Level. Its best are unquestionably among the best in the world. As best shown on Opening Day, perhaps the most talented Marlins hitter, Starling Marte, wore a Golden Sombrero against Tyler Glasnow and the Tampa Bay Rays.

The problem on offense would eventually define Miami’s season. The club ended 2021 tied Milwaukee with the lowest batting average in the National League, while just the Chicago Cubs posted a higher SO%. The bats weren’t connecting with anything close to authority and even before accounting for injuries to key contributors, the issue had shown itself.

In late April, Brian Anderson went out with an oblique injury and José Devers got the call. Christina De Nicola got Manager Don Mattingly’s view on the decision:

“José’s going to be fine and give us good at-bats when he’s in there, He knows how to play. I know he’s a young kid, but young kids that have played winter ball and things like that for the Dominican, they’re not afraid of anything over here, and they don’t seem to be too nervous. So José’s a baseball player, he’s going to be fine. He’s going to be a good player.”

In his first at-bat, he was on the strikes and held off the balls, showing a disciplined eye, but a bat not quite ready for Kevin Gausman. Pitching one of his best games en route to a National League All-Star selection, Gausman got José’s bat caught between his fastball and splitter in a way rarely seen outside the big leagues.

The pitch-by-pitch of José Devers' first career plate appearance (strikeout swinging) pic.twitter.com/HLpAabuh8E
— Fish Stripes (@fishstripes) April 25, 2021

Even if you assume José Devers knows everything his cousin does about hitting and really understands how he might be pitched, even if he has reached an appropriate point of physical development to face Gausman-like heat, and even if he has the ability to hit most pitches with authority, putting it all together without the runway of playing in the upper minors is a lot to ask.

Devers’ ability to make adjustments was tested immediately. It was in the 1st inning on April 26, when Jazz Chisholm Jr. went down with a hamstring injury and was bound for the injured list. That forced Devers to enter the game against starter Adrian Houser of the Milwaukee Brewers. Facing 15 pitches—11 for strikes—he was again held hitless.

On May 2, facing Hall of Fame-bound Max Scherzer and the Washington Nationals, Devers finally beat out an infield single for his first Major League hit. José can run.

On May 7, José Devers joined the crowded Miami Marlins IL with a shoulder impingement. Upon returning later that month, he was regularly in the lineup and showed encouraging signs of adjusting to the bright lights. The time away from the batter’s box to process, assess and recalibrate from his first MLB stint helped him find better results at the plate and grow as a hitter.

Prior to his injury, Devers had 2 hits (singles) in 13 plate appearances with 5 strikeouts, 0 walks and a single RBI produced via sacrifice. His bat just hadn’t gotten through to the box score. But over his next 33 PAs for the Marlins, he slashed .276/.364/.379 while garnering 3 BB and 6 K.

It was poised to be an interesting summer for José Devers...until the injury big bit him again. Out since June 14, Devers underwent surgery on August 10 to repair a posterior labrum tear. It’s another setback for a player whose durability had also been an issue in previous seasons.

The Marlins are well-stocked with middle infielders on their projected 2022 active roster (Miguel Rojas, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Joey Wendle, with Jon Berti potentially squeezing into the playing time equation as well). That affords Devers ample time to develop with Double-A Pensacola and Triple-A Jacksonville. By the end of his age-22 campaign—health permitting—he could resurface in Miami.

2021 Marlins Season Review: Nick Neidert

2021-11-05T09:00:00-04:00

David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

This year, Nick Neidert flashed his exceptionality.

Heading into 2021, it certainly wasn’t the expectation that Nick Neidert would be a crucial part of the Marlins starting rotation. But the pressure on him mounted quickly following injuries suffered by Sixto Sánchez and Elieser Hernandez within the first week of the regular season.

By game No. 7, Neidert was up with the major league club.

Baseball-Reference

Nick Neidert’s 2021 MLB game logs

Nick’s control was not as sharp as advertised in his initial rotation stint. After the lowly Baltimore Orioles got to him for 5 runs in 3 innings and inflated his ERA to 6.75, he was off the 26-man roster and back to AAA. He resurfaced in late May, only to suffer a right biceps injury that would sideline him for a full month.

Neidert’s July 21 start in Washington is worthy of closer examination. The Marlins had just lost Pablo López to the IL so he was called up to make the spot start, his 5th of the year.

Already with a runner aboard as Alcides Escobar singled on the first pitch of the game, Trea Turner was the next man up. Turner was disciplined, refusing to swing at balls while Neidert tried to make him a fool with a couple of different looks, before slinging a fastball up and in. Turner wasn’t ready for its extreme downward movement and an unusual armside run and grounded into a double play.

It was a moment of great pitching. Neidert respected Turner’s abilities and set him up perfectly. That low-90’s weapon of his perfectly busts a righty and can snag a strike around the plate. Opponents just aren’t prepared for it.

Neidert completed five innings that night while allowing only one earned run. Keep in mind, 9 days ahead of the deadline, the Marlins still had not yet “sold” to wave the white flag on their season. Even the Atlanta Braves were sporting a losing record.

Although Neidert was effective in a high-pressure spot, he continued an alarming pattern of walking more batters than he strikes out in the majors.

A closer look at his Baseball Savant Plinko:

Baseball Savant

Nick Neidert Pitch Usage by Strike Count via Baseball Savant

Neidert adjusts his pitch usage when he’s behind in the count. He abandons his curveball and changeup, limiting his offerings and allowing opposing offenses to focus on fewer pitches. He relied on just the fastball and slider in those instances. That worked for him at AAA Jacksonville (3.67 ERA, 52 SO/21 BB), but major league hitters were wise to his tricks (21 SO/23 BB).

Neidert, at age 24, was years younger than his competition at the major league level. His 104-inning overall workload in 2021 marks a real stepping stone considering the stress of anchoring the MLB team and adapting to a chaotic living situation as a team-controlled pitcher who the Marlins often exploited for roster flexibility. Perhaps it’s just a matter of confidence or a need to further develop his secondary pitches. His Statcast results from 2020 to 2021 show that he has been able to add break and velocity to his fastball and get more consistent results on his slider.

Neidert’s highlights included his 12 swinging strikes against the Mets and when he shut out the Dodgers for 4 innings in relief. He could hold it together against some of the game’s best.

The case of Nick Neidert speaks to the Marlins’ exceptional major league-ready pitching depth. Quality arms like Zach Thompson, Edward Cabrera and Jesús Luzardo are potentially on the outside looking in at the 2022 active roster pending their teammates’ health, and even they seem to have a leg up on Neidert and his lefty counterpart, Braxton Garrett. It’s almost too much to work with—these depth pieces have nothing left to prove at AAA.

With Nick Neidert, you’re looking at someone who can contribute in myriad ways moving forward, whether it be as a starter or swingman. A transition to short relief could also be worth exploring. As the Marlins look to contend in 2022, they shouldn’t take him for granted.

The National League needs the DH, but could do it differently than the AL does

2021-05-28T17:55:36-04:00

Rhona Wise-USA TODAY Sports

Adding offense while ensuring there’s still variety in style of play between the leagues.

With tonight’s visit to Fenway Park, the Miami Marlins will be allowed a designated hitter for the first time in 2021. It’s a refreshing opportunity for a roster that was assembled with the universal DH in mind, only to receive word shortly before Opening Day that Major League Baseball and the players’ union were unable to reach a compromise on the matter.

Just yesterday, the Marlins were adversely impacted by MLB’s “different leagues, different rules” approach.

Phillies lefty José Alvarado brought his lights-out stuff in trying preserve a 2-1 lead in the bottom of the eighth inning. He looked something like this against the toolsy Jorge Alfaro, his first batter faced, as illustrated by MLB Gameday.

MLB Gameday. 5/27/21 Mia Vs. Phi

Alvarado’s nearly unhittable sinker that went for a groundout in the way you would expect with the heat and downward movement. Any swing under over the pitch would be a groundout and any swing under the ball would be a foul. It was a pitch that a Marlins hitter would need to square up and command to earn a hit. They’d have to barrel it.

As a lineup of mostly athletic players who are thin with the bat, patience was the best option.

MLB Gameday. 5/27/21 Mia Vs. Phi

Thanks to his shaky control, the Marlins started to threaten. Rather than ride with Corey Dickerson, Donnie Baseball elected to bring in Garrett Cooper who he presumably figured had a better chance of squaring one up. That tracks analytically—the 1.7% Barrel Rate for Corey Dickerson this season is far below the 7.3% for Cooper, according to FanGraphs. By pinch-hitting, Mattingly had found an impact spot in the late innings to leverage Cooper’s bat while mitigating his outfield liability.

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That was, until the next half-inning with the game tied and 0 outs. Cooper had stayed in the game after a flurry of defensive moves around the injured Miguel Rojas. Then a flyball to Garrett Cooper in right went for a triple when it could quite easily gone for an out.

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Misplays like that make Garrett Cooper make him a liability in right field. That fact hasn’t changed from the start of the season, while his bat has started to heat up including his now-11 game hitting streak. As a 30-year-old player, Cooper is unlikely to improve much in that facet of the game moving forward as the defensive side of baseball demands outstanding athleticism to be great.

Cooper doesn’t have that.

Oh Coop... pic.twitter.com/1M9e7o6ExW
— Fish Stripes (@fishstripes) May 12, 2021

To his credit, Cooper has owned up to it. He—just like the rest of us—wishes there was a way for him to contribute at the plate without negating so much of his field with the glove.

The conversation for the DH, as it relates to the fan, is that it makes the game better because pitchers don’t have to burden themselves by doing something that they don’t want to do and that no one wants to watch.

Riveting at bat from Glasnow! Glad we have pitchers batting! pic.twitter.com/sWwzCa25xW
— Gomer (@GomesDaLegend) April 1, 2021

As a National League fan, I like the style of play in the National League. It feels more natural and fluid as substitutions beckon the entire bench and endow every spot on a 26-man roster with difference-making importance. The mental game that a manager must play to properly put their team in the best position to win is captivating, perhaps because of how much exhaustive effort goes into it.

Ultimately, the DH in the National League feels like an inevitability. Garrett Cooper would welcome it. The Marlins would seemingly welcome it as they planned for it in 2021. While fans would also be in favor.

Part of the resistance is that the National League would lose the unique style of baseball it has always had.

Who said that the Senior Circuit would need to use the DH exactly like the American League does? How about if the NL DH was only allowed in the 9-spot in the lineup?

For the strategically-engaged fan, it would offer extra plate appearances for capable offensive players. Teams might find more reason to bat their best hitters 1-2 in the lineup rather than towards the middle as a solid ninth hitter might provide more RBI opportunities for leadoff men. And teams would be encouraged to value bat-to-ball skills in position players as the 7-8 spots in the lineup could become home to hitters who get on base and help the lineup move along.

Does this eliminate the bunt? Or does it encourage small-ball skills in 7-8 hitters? Is the NL DH a way to help build unrelenting lineups, challenge pitchers and improve scoring?

Who really knows how it could play out. At least it would offer some variety in play between the AL and NL.

The case for Magneuris Sierra as an “opener”

2021-05-27T09:15:29-04:00

Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Considering an unorthodox approach to outfielder usage.

Earlier this week, Ely Sussman wrote how “When Sierra Starts, the Fish win.” Making the observation that the team has a 17-9 record when he starts dating back to 2020 (they’re now 18-9 following Wednesday’s game). It’s counterintuitive when considering Magneuris Sierra’s underwhelming individual stats and obvious limitations at the plate. The Marlins have declined to start him regularly when their full complement of outfield options are healthy.

I’m here to ask: why not?

Typically, Sierra comes into the game as a defensive substitute or a pinch runner or as a perhaps uninspiring outing as a pinch-hitter. For the moment, there are occasional opportunities in the lineup because he’s filling in for the injured Starling Marte (Lewis Brinson, who the club remains inexplicably fond of, is also hurt).

After Marte returns to the team, the Marlins will be in a more abstract spot with regards to their 26-man roster. Magneuris Sierra is out of options on his contract and would have to be DFA’d and exposed to waivers if he doesn’t fit on the roster—the Marlins organization would risk losing his talents to another organization.

So let’s take that situation to its logical conclusion. It might be fallacious thinking to claim that the Marlins have won at such a high rate because Sierra is in these games from start to finish. However, as an interesting alternative to reverting to his reserve role, could he help out as a defensive “opener” for them?

Marlins starting pitchers would benefit from Sierra’s defense when compared to Corey Dickerson’s or Garrett Cooper’s. A hard-hit ball off a rare mistake by Sandy, López and Rogers has a higher chance of being caught by the fleet-footed Sierra. Offensively, the Marlins could bury him 8th in the batting order so as to not limit any of his more powerful teammates from getting priority at the plate. If/when there’s an obvious RBI opportunity, Don Mattingly could lift Mags for a pinch-hitter.

Personally, I’m not sure whether or not I like it. To me, it makes sense to option Lewis Brinson to AAA once reinstated from the IL because they don’t have the same flexibility with Sierra. He has to either contribute in The Show or he’s as good as gone.

Would this unorthodox approach to outfield management fly in the clubhouse, who knows, but why not give it a shot?

The Marlins Have Never Had a Truly Dominant Closer

2021-05-07T11:15:36-04:00

That might be the necessary piece to propel them into championship contention.

It’s perhaps a bit extreme to connect this week’s Major League debut of Anthony Bender with the lack of dominance from a Marlins closer, but we all handle #BenderMania in different ways.

In his effective debut, Bender regularly hit 97 with a sinker, generated whiffs with his slider and dialed it up to 98 to end a long at-bat. The 20th round draft pick showed Major League Baseball his talent at 26 years of age and shut out the Diamondbacks for an inning, allowing a single while recording the first two strikeouts of his career. Thursday’s outing—under the added pressure of a tied ballgame—was more of the same.

Anthony Bender, 96mph Sinker and 86mph Slider, Overlay pic.twitter.com/g94BLYJZCy
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 7, 2021

Meanwhile in Mississippi, last summer’s 3rd overall draft pick Max Meyer made his professional debut for the AA Pensacola Blue Wahoos. He showed professionally what had made him such a highly regarded amateur prospect with his electric stuff, command and feel for his pitches. He has all the potential to be a dominant pitcher at the Major League level, but won’t figure into the rotation picture quite yet. What might make sense, is the back-end of the bullpen even if it results in a Smoltz-like career as both a reliever and a starter. He might be good enough for it not to matter, so long as he’s on the mound.

For the moment the Marlins are set with Yimi Garcia as their closer, a role he’s held for the better part of a month after it was ceded by free agent signee Anthony Bass. The bullpen has pitched relatively well—7th in ERA, but 15th in RE24 indicating a potential cause for their losing record despite a great team run differential. Miami pitchers have failed to hold on when the score is tight, and a part of that problem is their lack of a tried and true option at closer. Throughout Marlins history, this invaluable player type has eluded them.

From the start of Major League Baseball in South Florida, the Marlins rode organizational saves leader Robb Nen and his 3.41 ERA to their 1997 World Series title. For all his contributions to the organization and his reliable performance, he was not dominant as a Marlin, even when compared to himself as his best years and All-Star appearances came after 1997 firesale as a San Francisco Giant.

After Robb Nen, the Marins turned to the man who is #2 in Marlins saves, Antonio Alfonseca. Antonio pitched to a 3.66 ERA from 1998-2001 for a Marlins team that was not competitive in the National League East. Solid yet ultimately unimportant results as the team was out of it.

Fish Stripes original GIF

As fortune turned in 2003 the Marlins pivoted from Braden Looper and his 3.68 ERA as a closer in favor of Ugueth Urbina for their playoff run. The acquisition cost was steep: a prospect package including their 2000 1st round draft pick Adrian Gonzalez and his eventual 43 bWAR career for roughly 2 months of Urbina and his 1.41 ERA as a Marlin.

After that World Series win over Mariano Rivera and the Yankees, the Marlins continued to have high turnover at the closer position. In 2004, journeyman Armando Benitez led the National League in saves as a Marlin with 47 while the Marlins missed the playoffs and other closers outperformed him in other metrics of dominance. RE24, which compares actual performance to the theoretical run scoring expected in the 24 base/out states (factoring in clutch performance better than save totals alone), rated Armando Benitez as #15 in MLB for 2004 among qualified relievers.

FanGraphs

From 1993 until now the best single season in RE24 belongs to Mariano Rivera in his breakout 1996 season. Rivera road that breakout to a unanimous Hall of Fame induction as the all-time leader in saves. His ability to close out games gave the eventual Yankees dynasty certainty to build around in the late innings.

As a pitcher who could throw in the high 90s with his fastball, he developed a cutter with such sharp break it kept batters from making good contact. He reached a high degree of mastery with his cutter and relied 82% of the time in games recorded on Brooks Baseball.

Total tangent, but absolutely fascinating. Mel Stottlemyre, father of the current Miami Marlins pitching coach, was Mariano’s pitching coach as he emerged on the Major League scene.

Some Marlins make down-list appearances among the all-time RP leaders in RE24. Robb Nen ranks #46 just ahead of #47 Andrew Miller who was mostly a starting pitcher with the Marlins. Brad Hand at #89 also jumps out as another former Marlins starting pitcher that found success in the late innings for different teams.

To contextualize the relative value of a high-end starting pitcher to a high-end closer. Mariano Rivera is 9th all-time in RE24 across all pitchers, just behind contemporaries Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander. Fellow Yankee Mike Mussina ranks 7th on the all-time list. Roger Clemens leads the league with an amazing 761.50 RE24.

These are the single-season RE24 leaders in Marlins history:

FanGraphs

The most recent entrants, Clay Hensley and Kiko Calero, were not even closing games and thus not subjected to the extra pressure of the 9th inning.

The all-time Marlins career leader amongst relievers is AJ Ramos with his career 39.71 RE24. He pitched for the mid-2010’s teams that was perpetually just outside of contention and shy on starting pitching.

Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images

As the Marlins continue to work towards “sustained success” on the field, the closer position is a position to follow. In the past, they’ve attempted to cut corners by trading premium young talent for months of high performance and overspending in free agency.

However, that might not be necessary considering their current organizational depth. Perhaps such a back-end-of-the-bullpen comes from their pool of up-and-coming starting pitching prospects, a familiar name like Meyer, Edward Cabrera, Jordan Holloway, etc. Wouldn’t it be fantastic if Bender ascended from obscurity to stardom?

In the meantime, Yimi Garcia is more than solid as a placeholder. He converted his fifth save of the season on Thursday, lowering his ERA to 2.03 in the process. He hasn’t allowed more than two baserunners in an appearance all year.

Prognosticating this is difficult—with the right adjustments, practically anyone could prove to be a unique weapon in Miami Marlins history.

Miami Marlins Trade Target: Curt Casali

2021-04-26T16:20:15-04:00

Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

Casali would help the Marlins address their greatest weakness.

I’ll get straight to the point. The Miami Marlins are in need of a catcher. It’s a weakness for the club even with Jorge Alfaro healthy, and he’s current on the IL (left hamstring strain).

In the meantime, Curt Casali is an affordable 8-year MLB veteran who is a solid receiver behind the plate. He made history and headlines recently catching five consecutive shutouts and is only the 5th catcher to accomplish such a feat since 1900.

Casali would be an immediate upgrade for the Fish.

The headlines as they were do not tell the full story of his 8 years in Major League Baseball. Casali was originally a 10th round draft pick out of Vanderbilt by the Tigers in 2011. Per SB Nation’s Bless You Boys, he was “a good defender who can control the running game, work a pitching staff, hit right handed, and has some power” and had the ceiling of “a fringy starter or above-average backup.”

Curt Casali has absolutely reached that ceiling, though he still has clear limitations as a hitter (career 92 OPS+). Those results haven’t been enough to either make him a starter or a highly valued back-up.

Baseball-Reference

Curt Casali Career Batting Totals

In San Francisco, his role is more like a stopgap until gifted prospect Joey Bart is ready to split time behind the plate Buster Posey in the near future. Posey is a potential free agent next offseason (if the Giants were to decline his pricey club option), but as an all-time great Giant, it’s hard to imagine him in any different uniform. In a reduced role, he can still help the Giants transition their roster to compete with the L.A. Dodgers and San Diego Padres who are arguably the best teams in MLB.

In all of that, Curt Casali does not at any point project to be a starter, and he knew that going into the season. In fact, he chose to sign with the Giants because of the opportunity to reunite and work with hitting coach Donnie Ecker. Hitting is on the forefront of Casali’s mind as he, at 32, looks to continue to develop his skillset and be the sort of catcher that earns eight figures in his career.

The Marlins have more available innings at catcher for Casali to audition for a long-term contract. Adding to the appeal, Miami seems to have developed an organizational competency in clutch hitting. Just look at the last couple of innings on Sunday.

Here is the moment Curt Casali’s shutout streak ended on a late-inning home run:

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Then the next inning, Lewis Brinson, of all people, put together a solid at-bat off the bench:

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Even without Donnie Ecker, the Marlins have something for Curt to learn that might help him refine his approach at the plate as well as the reps for him to practice it against live-pitching.

In return, Curt Casali and his skill set as an excellent veteran backstop would give Miami something it doesn’t have in 40-man catchers Chad Wallach, Sandy León and Jorge Alfaro. He would take the Marlins to a new height and give their core of young pitchers someone excellent to work with. Historically, his bat has been just as productive as Alfaro’s and far superior to Wallach’s and León’s.

At minimum, Casali would be someone for Alfaro to learn from and compete against throughout the second half of the campaign as both men vy for a role on the 2022 roster (like Alfaro, Casali is arbitration eligible next year). If neither of them perform at a satisfactory level, then Miami can turn to a prospect or look outside the organization.

Even with San Francisco off to an impressive 14-8 start to the season, that doesn’t change the reality that this is an organization in transition, looking to develop its core for the future to contend with the true Giants in their division. By the time Casali is eligible to be traded on June 16 (that restriction is in place because he signed as a free agent the previous winter), they figure to be closer to the NL West cellar than the division lead. He is far from untouchable—they might be inclined to trade him if they can extract some young talent from Miami and shed what remains of his $1.5 million contract.

Baseball Trade Values approximates Casali at $0.7 million in surplus value. That is comparable to Marlins right-hander Breidy Encarnación (prospects Jorge Guzman and Josh Roberson also have a median 0.7 BTV, but they are significantly older than Encarnación and less likely to mesh with the Giants’ window of contention).

Miami would improve immediately with Casali. They’d offer a playing time opportunity to a veteran player and the prospect exchange would not inconvenience the organization long-term.

It could be an awkward negotiation if the Giants defy the odds to remain relevant in the playoff picture. Nonetheless, they might as well offer it once Casali is trade-eligible.

2021 Marlins Season Preview: Jorge Alfaro

2021-03-24T09:00:38-04:00

Photo by Eric Espada/Getty Images

Alfaro’s third season in Miami could prove to be his final one unless he shows tangible improvement in his plate approach and defensive fundamentals.

Jorge Alfaro’s 2020 season ended riding the bench while his back-up Chad Wallach started in the postseason. Since Alfaro was acquired from the Phillies as a potential replacement for J.T. Realmuto, he’s been tasked with filling the starting catcher void but he has not quite filled the All-Star’s shoes.

Jorge Alfaro has real physical gifts. He has long been noted to have great physical strength that translates to raw power, a strong arm and speed. The tools are there, but his approach at the plate has had lackluster results and his work with the Marlins pitching staff has also been suspect.

Percentile ranks for Alfaro’s most recent season in the Majors

His 2020 season was impacted by a personal case of COVID-19. He only played in 31 games with 100 plate appearances. His 3 home runs, slash line of .226/.280/.344 and -2.5 runs of defensive value (per FanGraphs) was worth -0.3 fWAR. Regardless of your feelings on any of these specific numbers, there is something of a consensus that Miami needs to get better production out of their catcher.

In an interview with Levi Weaver with The Athletic, Don Mattingly justified the decision to “ride the wave” and start Chad Wallach in the playoffs by saying “we know Jorgie (Alfaro) has the capability of doing some big things offensively. But in this setting, we felt like we want to prioritize the way Chad handles the pitching staff.”

At best, a catcher can be something analogous to a quarterback in the NFL—they have responsibilities fielding, hitting and coordinating the pitching attack against the opposing hitters. A great backstop can truly help a pitching staff mentally.

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

In an interview with Christina De Nicola for MLB.com Jorge Alfaro described being sidelined in the playoffs as a “wake-up call” and has since taken accountability for his shortcomings. Alfaro focused his offseason efforts on improving his craft, but even with a complete “buy-in” change does not happen overnight.

Heading into the 2021 season, Alfaro is still slotted at the top of Miami’s catching depth chart. The only external roster competition brought in recently is the veteran Sandy León who, after a solid tenure with the Boston Red Sox that included the 2018 World Series championship, has not cemented himself a reliable backstop at the highest level. His .216 career batting average—sub-.200 in each of the past three years—was only good for a minor league contact with this Marlins team. Though, Sandy is still a potentially impactful acquisition, if only as a veteran leader who has “been there.”

Historically, Fish fans have been blessed with exceptional catcher production from Marlins Hall of Fame candidates Charles Johnson and Iván “Pudge” Rodríguez. Johnson was an exhibit of greatness across seasons and Rodríguez a “flavor of the year” that has since been enshrined in Cooperstown. This organization wouldn’t have any World Series titles without them, and adding to that trophy case will require a rock-solid successor at the position. Can Alfaro emerge as the same caliber of player?

It isn’t so clear how urgent the matter is for Miami. They did not feel pressured to make a real change over the offseason, nothing more than reportedly kicking the tires on a Willson Contreras trade. Realmuto’s recent 5-year/$115.5 million signing with the Phillies and Salvador Pérez’s 4-year/$82 million extension with the Royals provide updated benchmarks for the cost of a reliably impactful catcher, which seems to be out of the Marlins’ comfort zone. Owed only $2.05 million for the 2021 season, Alfaro could prove to be a bargain if his winter regimen translates to the real games.

2021 Marlins Season Preview: Lewis Brinson

2021-03-12T07:30:00-05:00

Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports

Is this the year Lewis Brinson finds his swing?

One might imagine that the Florida Marlins imparted a bit of their fighting spirit on the young Lewis Brinson who watched in 2003 as Josh Beckett closed out the 9th inning at Yankee Stadium. This Florida Marlins team’s success came as a Wild Card winner that rode its good young pitching and competitive hitters right over the titanic New York Yankees whose status as the most successful MLB team has been passed down through generations.

It was the last time you would see the seemingly-upstart Marlins in the playoffs until 2020. During that 17-year playoff drought, Marlins homegrown talent like Miguel Cabrera and Christian Yelich won MVP awards in the midwest, Beckett and Mike Lowell became catalysts for the Boston Red Sox en route to a championship, and even the franchise’s home run king, Giancarlo Stanton, will be best remembered for his time in pinstripes after the Fish dumped the final decade of his contract coming off his best individual season.

The Marlins were in desperate need of a reset when billionaire Bruce Sherman and former Yankee Derek Jeter entered the ownership suite in late 2017.

Lewis Brinson’s MLB career had already begun and he had already lost some of the gloss that seems to cover a graduated top prospect. The 1st round draft pick out of Coral Springs High School was developed and traded by the Texas Rangers to the Milwaukee Brewers. Promoted from AAA as an injury replacement for recent Marlin Jonathan Villar and despite top billing in the Milwaukee farm system, he would end the 2017 season with an offensive line of .106/.236/.277 in a small 47 at-bats. The Brewers knew they didn’t have an immediate hit. He had not produced well in his debut, but now he had a baseline for what exactly it is to play with the best-of-the-best. Lewis Brinson would need to develop into a better hitter if he were going to play center field in a World Series like his childhood hero Juan Pierre.

credit. TMJ4 — Milwaukee

Shortly before the start of 2018 Spring Training, Brinson was traded to the Miami Marlins along with 2B Isan Díaz, OF Monte Harrison and RHP Jordan Yamamoto for the reliably good-hitting Christian Yelich.

Brinson has had a lot to live up to from a very young age. The trade added another layer to an already otherworldly pile of expectations on the #18 overall MLB prospect according to industry benchmark Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects List.

As an amateur, he was described as an “athletic, toolsy high-school outfielder who has the chance to develop into a player down the road.” As a professional, he was staunchly defended by Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs: “Some people just don’t think he’s going to hit, but Brinson has made relevant swing adjustments multiple times as a pro and his strikeout rate has dropped every season”.

Lewis Brinson has proved to be a constant with the Miami Marlins. His boyhood fandom and passion for the game has led to literal praise from Juan Pierre himself.

Juan Pierre on Lewis Brinson: "Most guys would give up. This guy kept plugging along...He just stayed with it and now the fruit of it is coming." #JuntosMiami pic.twitter.com/k5gIsNsxcw
— Fish Stripes (@fishstripes) September 17, 2020

Brinson is just 26 and has room to grow. Statistically we can see that he has made legitimate strides at the plate as recently as last September as he closed out a regular season with career highs .226/.268/.368. Those are poor numbers, but his 0.0 Win Probability Added tells a slightly more encouraging story—when taking game situations into account, he moved the offense along at exactly the rate you’d expect if baseball players were sentient slot machines. Where you can see his growth as a player over the last several years is in his to work shorten his swing which has led to more competitive at-bats and less strikeouts.

While Lewis Brinson has always long had the tools to succeed as a Major Leaguer, his skillful ability has come along at a slower rate and as such the Marlins have made choices that have reduced his role on the roster. He’s capable of center field but that’s a position currently locked down by All-Star Starling Marte for another year. Adam Duvall was recently brought in to be the everyday right fielder. Corey Dickerson remains the designated left fielder in 2021.

Brinson will look to squeeze onto the Opening Day roster as a backup. Making even that a challenge for him are the virtual locks of strong-hitting Garrett Cooper and the out-of-options speedster Magneuris Sierra who shares a similarly poor career track record and lacks the power potential of Brinson. However, the latter has one more minor league option year on his contract and can safely refine his hitting at AAA Jacksonville this upcoming season.

This past season showed that all the hard work could be worth it as Lewis Brinson looks to complete his development and realize his potential as an athletic, toolsy center fielder who can hit. He is the sort of player you’d want as a complementary piece of a World Series-contending team if he continues to progress at the plate.

Injuries and inconsistencies are inevitable. Despite the currently crowded outfield picture in Miami, a reasonable expectation for the 2021 season is that Brinson has some meaningful at-bats on a contending team. If he works hard and capitalizes on those opportunities, he might change his outlook for 2022, filling the shoes of his soon-to-be free agent teammates as a possible everyday player and emerging as a leadership figure to the next wave of outfield talent.

With talented outfielders like JJ Bleday, Peyton Burdick and Monte Harrison on the way as long-term reinforcements, the Miami Marlins can become all the more relevant in South Florida both in baseball and as role models to youth. As a strong black voice in baseball, a member of The Players Alliance and a native of South Florida, Lewis Brinson offers a specific and timely glimpse at a better future on the field, in player development, and in the country at large. Who knows? He ultimately might grow into the same sort of Pierre-like player that helped him fall in love with the game and set his career in motion.

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2021 Marlins Season Preview: Miguel Rojas

2021-02-24T07:15:48-05:00

Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images

Rojas continues to raise the bar for himself.

He is your captain in every way but title. He’s your longest tenured Marlin as a representative of Miami since 2015. He’s your starting shortstop and the epitome of what it is to be a competitor, athlete and leader.

On the field, Miguel Rojas has grown much as a player since he was acquired as the least-heralded part of the Dan Haren and Dee Strange-Gordon blockbuster. His inclusion in the trade was first mentioned by longtime Marlins.com writer Joe Frisaro.

As part of deal #Marlins also are receiving another player, perhaps a Minor Leaguer
— Joe Frisaro (@JoeFrisaro) December 11, 2014

As an international signee out of Venezuela at 16 years of age, Rojas has been an exceptional athlete since childhood and this is a time in Miguel’s life I’d like to learn more about. From then on he gradually worked his way to the Major Leagues without ever gaining much acclaim as a prospect. Even now, he lacks the raw power and speed that typically leads to the sort of “fantasy baseball stats” that show up in a box score and can be recognized by literally anyone who watches a game.

Miguel’s story is one of hard work, competitive drive, leadership and a genuine brightness of character. To watch him play is to see a ballplayer that is simply a great ballplayer with a strong athletic ability and solidly refined skills.

After a couple of years as a utility player planted firmly behind the defensively gifted Adeiny Hechavarría on the depth chart, the Marlins’ rebuild created the opportunity for expanded playing time. In 2018, when fans doubted his future with the organization he led the league in GIDP (grounding into double plays) and seemed as perhaps a second fiddle to JT ‘The Riddler’ Riddle. In 2018 Sam Golub of Fish Stripes wrote, “Not that Rojas has done anything wrong; Riddle has simply surpassed him as the team’s best current shortstop candidate.” A valid opinion at the time, but Rojas wasn’t done ascending yet.

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Miggy has brought his energy to the team even before he was the player he is today.

Here we are in 2021 and over the years, Rojas has developed and refined his abilities and heads into the season as an above average defensive player as well as one of the toughest outs in the Major Leagues. A quick glance at Baseball-Reference shows us that Miguel Rojas was the 2020 league leader in Total Zone Runs as a shortstop, and there’s enough of a track record to believe it wasn’t some abbreviated season fluke. Miggy can field with the best of ‘em.

Miguel Rojas’ 2020 offensive season visualized

Per Baseball Savant we see a player who rarely strikes out. He does not swing and miss, he will take a walk and despite low barrel rates and generally weak contact and lacking the athleticism to out-run the ball to first, Rojas always makes it a battle in the batter’s box. Regardless of sample size, it was a terrific feat for him to hit .304/.392/.496, good for a 142 wRC+ in 2020.

Now a realistic expectation might be for some amount of regression in 2021. Last season looks like an outlier compared to his career .266/.319/.358 slash line and 85 wRC+. For reference his ZiPS projected slash line for 2021 is .270/.331/.377 which would be a 89 wRC+. While projection systems are a valuable tool in player assessment, they do not show the full picture.

Here’s a game in 2020. Due to rescheduling that took place following their COVID-19 outbreak, the Marlins were playing their 12th game in 10 days. They had just been swept by the eventual AL Champion Tampa Bay Rays at home and had to travel from Miami to New York for a single afternoon game before turning around and heading back home to face the Toronto Blue Jays.

Before they did that, they had to face the actually elite Jacob deGrom for the 4th time that month. It certainly felt like a make-or-break moment for a team that had just dropped to 14-15 on the year. Would the Marlins have what it takes to succeed under so much emotional and physical exhaustion?

Rojas did.

It doesn’t require a lot of expertise to see a man who is solidly working on his craft, getting better with age and coming to the field every day to win. He just isn’t the same player some thought he was a stopgap in his 20s—he has made adjustments. Even with the talented, toolsy Jazz Chisholm waiting in the wings, Rojas’ role on the roster is not in doubt.

As the Miami Marlins are coming off of a playoff appearance, expect to hear a lot from Miguel Rojas nationally. He’s the players union’ rep for the Marlins, an often media-facing spokesperson for the team and now one of the rotating co-hosts on The Chris Rose Rotation podcast.

Once again in 2021, it’s Miguel Rojas’ competitive energy leading the charge onto the field. He was a key to this organization’s rise from #BottomFeeders to the 2020 NLDS and will be instrumental in sustaining that success. It would be naive to call him a superstar, but there’s no sign of this 32-year-old slowing down.

With at least 500 plate appearances and a healthy finish to this season, the 2022 club option in Rojas’ contract (worth $5.5 million) becomes guaranteed. Even if he falls short of that threshold due to injury or inconsistency, Marlins fans overwhelmingly hope to see him remain with the Fish for another year and for whatever remains of his career beyond that.

Book Review: Cuban Baseball and my love for the game: Vol. 1

2021-02-22T18:00:01-05:00

Photo credit should read TOSHIFUMI KITAMURA/AFP via Getty Images

Cuban baseball and the Miami Marlins are intrinsically linked. Both broadly in a geo-political sense—nearby Island, political turmoil, civil unrest, it’s a lot to paint but you get it. People have fled the country for overwhelming motivations, and in a specifically MLB baseball sense, Miami has been home to numerous Cuban-born players including current minor leaguers Víctor Mesa Jr., Víctor Víctor Mesa and Yiddi Cappe, and of course the late José Fernández as well whose name can elicit a well spring of emotion to those familiar.

As a fan of the team since 2003 when it felt relevant to my parents to turn on a game, and as a publicly educated Floridian, it was easy to find inspiration in Fernández. The 2011 1st round draft pick out of a Tampa area high school attempted numerous defections from Cuba before succeeding. Nobody should experience such trauma as a child, but it certainly prepared him for any challenge he might face on the diamond. He was a transcendent athlete and my personal starting point with Cuban baseball.

I’ve seen Cuba play in the World Baseball Classic and I’ve read articles about Cuban ballplayers. But this was my first really dedicated venture into the subject of Cuban baseball and I found it well worth the journey.

While reading the first volume of Cuban Baseball and My Love of the Game by BBWAA member and Pelota Cubana co-owner Yusseff Díaz the relationship between the island and the sport became a lot more clear.

Yusseff Díaz has a passion for baseball. In his book, he offers some insight into his own fandom and conducted interviews and compiled research that help elucidate Cuban Baseball. In this first volume, his main focus is on the Major Leagues as it relates to the great players of Cuba both of the present and the past.

Particularly of interest were interviews Díaz had with Randy Arozarena, Marlins signee Yiddi Cappe and pitcher Luis Tiant who is credited with 229 wins and 66.1 bWAR in his 19-year MLB career. Call me ignorant, but I had no idea who Luis Tiant was before reading this book. A black & white photo of him throwing for the Red Sox has stuck with me for a week now.

It’s rare to have such a collection of interviews with Cuban players in English. As a resource it really is fascinating to hear from these players firsthand and I look forward to future volumes of this work especially his planned volume on baseball played in Cuba itself.