Checking in on prospects that Marlins moved in win-now trades

We applauded the Marlins for focusing much of their 2021-22 offseason on improving their major league roster. They were active in free agency and traded from their farm system depth to obtain reputable veteran players. While I didn’t feel it was enough to turn them into a likely postseason team, the moves ensured that the they’d improve significantly upon last season’s 67-95 record.

So, about that...Entering Monday, the Marlins are 19-26, putting them on pace for a similar 68-94 overall mark. Major League Baseball’s postseason format has expanded to admit an additional NL Wild Card team—that’s the only thing leaving the door open ever-so-slightly for them to salvage something from this year.

To be more specific, the Marlins traded prospects from outside their 40-man roster to acquire catcher Jacob Stallings (Pirates), infielder Joey Wendle and reliever Louis Head (Rays), and relievers Cole Sulser and Tanner Scott (Orioles). As a group, they have performed close to expectations, but that hasn’t been enough to compensate for the club’s deficiencies. Although each of these vets will be under the Marlins’ control through at least 2023, the main motivation behind getting them was to ensure that they would, at the very least, hang around the periphery of the 2022 postseason race. It would be painful to see former Fish farmhands succeed elsewhere if the moves didn’t meaningfully move Miami toward contention.

Here is my progress report on the seven prospects who were involved in the aforementioned trades.

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OF Kevin Guerrero (Orioles)

• Traded by Marlins in Cole Sulser/Tanner Scott deal
• Unranked on Baseball America’s Top 30 Orioles prospects list
• 2021 MiLB stats (Dominican Summer League): .260/.373/.298, 102 wRC+ in 159 PA
• Current level: extended spring training
• Age-18 season

Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs notes that Guerrero has “above-average bat speed and encouraging early-career contact indicators.” The tall Dominican outfielder should be getting regular playing time in the Florida Complex League this season.

OF Kameron Misner (Rays)

• Traded by Marlins in Joey Wendle deal
• Ranked 15th on Baseball America’s Top 30 Rays prospects list
• 2022 MiLB stats: .225/.394/.469, 131 wRC+ in 142 PA
• Current level: Double-A
• Age-24 season

While the Fish Stripes community was mostly comfortable with sacrificing young talent to obtain these upgrades, the most divisive trade was Misner for Wendle. The 35th overall pick in the 2019 MLB Draft, Misner has tantalizing physical tools and played very well throughout the second half of last summer. It was not unreasonable to dream of him developing into an above-average major league regular.

Misner ranks top 10 among Double-A Southern League qualifiers in on-base percentage and he’s doing it while playing all of his defensive innings in center field. He has had consistently high walk rates dating back to his amateur days and possesses the base-stealing acumen to make the most of them.

Health permitting, he is on track for a mid-2023 major league debut.

RHP Kyle Nicolas (Pirates)

• Traded by Marlins in Jacob Stallings deal
• Ranked 20th on Baseball America’s Top 30 Pirates prospects list
• 2022 MiLB stats: 4.21 ERA, 3.99 FIP, .218 BAA in 36.1 IP
• Current level: Double-A
• Age-23 season

From the BA staff: “Thanks to some work behind the scenes and tweaked grips on his changeup and curveball, Nicolas has raised his profile significantly” since the trade.

His control has improved year-to-year and the Pirates are understandably giving him every opportunity to stick as a starter. Outside of a rough afternoon against Double-A New Hampshire, Nicolas is doing well, though he’s not being pushed particularly deep into games.

I love Nicolas’ fastball and expect him to miss plenty of bats in the majors. That being said, he’s still an unfinished project.

RHP Yaqui Rivera (Orioles)

• Traded by Marlins in Cole Sulser/Tanner Scott deal (player to be named later)
• Unranked on Baseball America’s Top 30 Orioles prospects list
• 2021 MiLB stats (Dominican Summer League and Florida Complex League): 3.69 ERA, 3.75 FIP, .231 BAA in 39.0 IP
• Current level: extended spring training
• Age-18 season

Rivera seemingly upped his prospect stock during his professional debut last season. Listed at a diminutive 150 pounds, he’ll need to fill out in the coming years to remain in consideration for rotation chances.

RHP Josh Roberson (Rays)

• Traded by Marlins in Louis Head deal (player to be named later)
• Unranked on Baseball America’s Top 30 Rays prospects list
• 2022 MiLB stats (including Marlins org stats): 5.40 ERA, 4.12 FIP, .324 BAA in 8.1 IP
• Current level: Double-A
• Age-26 season

Roberson just joined his new club a few weeks ago to complete the Head trade, which was consummated way back in mid-November. There isn’t a big league role for the hard-throwing right-hander unless his control improves substantially.

OF Connor Scott (Pirates)

• Traded by Marlins in Jacob Stallings deal
• Ranked 30th on Baseball America’s Top 30 Pirates prospects list
• 2022 MiLB stats: .293/.343/.423, 111 wRC+ in 136 PA
• Current level: Double-A
• Age-22 season

The first player drafted by the Marlins after their ownership transition, Scott has gradually improved as a batter since turning pro. Too soon to say whether that trend is continuing into 2022—right now, he is the beneficiary of a sky-high BABIP. There’s still a possibility of him playing center field at the highest level (though he isn’t a Misner-caliber defender).

The Pirates aren’t treating Scott as a true everyday player. He’s been limited to 33 starts through 45 Double-A Altoona games despite being on the active roster the whole time.

Scott is Rule 5 Draft-eligible next winter. Will the Pirates protect him on their 40-man roster? Probably, but it’s not a guarantee.

LHP Antonio Velez (Orioles)

• Traded by Marlins in Cole Sulser/Tanner Scott deal
• Unranked on Baseball America’s Top 30 Orioles prospects list
• 2022 MiLB stats: 6.69 ERA, 6.29 FIP, .289 BAA in 36.1 IP
• Current level: Double-A
• Age-25 season

Velez is definitely the biggest surprise for me in terms of early-season performance. He looked sharp in Double-A Pensacola’s starting rotation in late 2021 and shoved four more scoreless innings in his Orioles organizational debut. It’s been mostly awful since then, however.

The lefty continues to pound the strike zone, but opposing batters are making hard contact and elevating the ball. I can’t imagine there are many other minor leaguers who have allowed five home runs in a single outing the way he did early last week. Velez rebounded on Sunday by earning his first win of the season.

I still think he’ll carve out an eventual major league role, at least as a Daniel Castano type.