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Padres vs. Marlins Series Preview

A 4-game series against the Padres begins tonight.

San Diego Padres shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. (23) tags Miami Marlins left fielder Curtis Granderson (21) for an out in the eighth inning at Marlins Park.  Photo by Jasen Vinlove/USA TODAY Sports

The Miami Marlins avoided a sweep with their win in Washington D.C. last night. They return home to take on the San Diego Padres this weekend. The Padres have won three of their five post-break games. The Marlins have named a few of this week’s starters. I’ll update the others when they are announced.

This series preview will give you all the details:

  • Schedule, Watch, Listen
  • Probable Pitchers
  • Recent Lineups
  • What To Watch For

Schedule, Watch, Listen

Thursday, July 22 at 7:10 pm

Friday, July 23 at 7:10 pm

Saturday, July 24 at 6:10 pm

Sunday, July 25 at 1:10 pm

  • TV broadcast for all 4 games: Bally Sports Florida
  • Radio broadcast for all 4 games: 940 AM WINZ, WAQI 710
  • Friday’s game can also be viewed on MLB Network for out-of-market fans only.

Probable Pitchers

Thursday: LHP Blake Snell vs. RHP Anthony Bender

  • Snell: 5.21 ERA, 1.601 WHIP, 28.2 K%, 41.5 HardHit% in 74.1 IP
  • Bender: 2.27 ERA, 0.947 WHIP, 32.5 K%, 29.6 HardHit% in 31.2 IP

Friday: RHP Joe Musgrove vs. RHP Zach Thompson

  • Musgrove: 3.14 ERA, 0.997 WHIP, 28.0 K%, 36.6 HardHit% in 103.1 IP
  • Thompson: 1.93 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 29.2 K%, 42.0 HardHit% in 28.0 IP

Saturday: LHP Ryan Weathers vs. MIA TBA

  • Weathers: 2.91 ERA, 1.142 WHIP, 17.9 K%, 43.4 HardHit% in 58.2 IP
  • TBA: (Will update when announced)

Sunday: RHP Yu Darvish vs. LHP Trevor Rogers

  • Darvish: 3.09 ERA, 1.003 WHIP, 28.9 K%, 33.5 HardHit% in 110.2 IP
  • Rogers: 2.37 ERA, 1.142 WHIP, 17.9 K%, 43.4 HardHit% in 58.2 IP

Recent Lineups

SD Recent Lineups: Grisham, Tatis Jr., Cronenworth, Machado, Pham, Hosmer, Myers, Caratini. SD Bench: Kim, Mateo, Profar, O’Grady, Rivas. SD IL: Nola. MIA Recent Lineups: Rojas, Díaz, Marte, Duvall, Aguilar, Panik, Alfaro, Sierra. MIA Bench: Brinson, Berti, León. MIA IL: Anderson, Devers, Chisholm Jr., Cooper.
Please note that both the Padres and Marlins lineups listed here are by default the projections vs. RHP. The columns to the right with a red header are past lineups vs. LHP. Similarly, the columns to the right with a blue header are past lineups vs. RHP.
FanGraphs.com

What to watch for on...

Thursday: Blake Snell on the road.

  • Snell hasn’t been his usual self in 2021 and has been downright terrible when not pitching at home. His 2021 home vs. road splits are listed in the table below.

Blake Snell Home vs. Away Splits

Blake Snell ERA G IP H R ER HR BB K WHIP
Blake Snell ERA G IP H R ER HR BB K WHIP
Home Games 1.43 7 37.2 23 7 6 3 16 55 1.035
Away Games 9.08 10 36.2 48 37 37 8 32 41 2.182
Blake Snell Home vs. Away Splits All statistics from Baseball Reference
  • Snell has faced the Marlins three times in his career for a combined: 15.0, 9 R, (8 ER), 8 BB, 22 K, 4 HR. Sandy León has seen him the most and had success, going 6-for-14 with 3 walks and 3 strikeouts.

Friday: Jesús Aguilar vs. Joe Musgrove.

  • Aguilar career vs. Musgrove: 4-for-12, 4 H, 2 HR.
  • It’s a small sample size, but Aguilar has hit Musgrove well. He has only five hits since the All-Star Break, but Aguilar seemingly comes through when the Marlins need him the most. Musgrove has also struggled his last few outings after coming off dominant to start the season. Over his last four starts, Musgrove’s opposing batters are slashing .312/.389/.481.

Saturday: Padres’ starter Ryan Weathers makes first start back from an ankle injury.

  • Weathers is a rookie making his 12th start (in 18 appearances). He has a fastball (94 mph), slider (87 mph), and changeup (87 mph). He doesn’t record many whiffs, putting him in the 4th-percentile among qualified pitchers.
  • The Padres 5th-ranked prospect started out the season strong (1.31 ERA in 34.1 IP) but ran into trouble in June and July. During that time, he has a 5.18 ERA in 24.1 IP. He looked good against Colorado on July 11 but left with an ankle injury after just two innings. Saturday will be his first start back from the IL.
Miami Marlins center fielder Starling Marte (6) is greeted after hitting a two RBI home run against the Philadelphia Phillies during the first inning at Citizens Bank Park. 
One last Marte Parte?
Photo by Bill Streicher/USA TODAY Sports

Sunday: Starling Marte.

  • Marte was slumping going into the All-Star Break, but since then he’s gone 11-for-27 with 4 doubles and 1 home run. He’s also driven in four runs, stolen two bases, and scored seven times.
  • Because an extension could not be agreed upon between the team and Marte, it seems likely he will be traded by the July 30 deadline. Enjoy one last Marte Parte while you still can.

Poll

How will this series play out?

This poll is closed

  • 0%
    Marlins sweep, 4-0
    (0 votes)
  • 0%
    Marlins win, 3-1
    (0 votes)
  • 36%
    Tie, 2 wins apiece
    (4 votes)
  • 63%
    Padres win, 3-1
    (7 votes)
  • 0%
    Padres sweep, 4-0
    (0 votes)
11 votes total Vote Now