Breaking down tender/non-tender decisions for the Marlins’ huge 2022 arbitration class

As is their annual tradition, MLB Trade Rumors has projected next season’s salaries for the hundreds of MLB players who’ll be eligible for arbitration. It’s an especially interesting exercise for the Marlins entering 2022 because they have a whopping thirteen players in that service time range. That includes seven first-time eligibles.

I have divvied them up into five groups based on the likelihood of them being tendered by the December 2 deadline.

NOTE: Tendering a contract to a player does not mean they will be on the Marlins Opening Day roster—trades and preseason cuts are still possible.

Locks: Sandy Alcantara ($4.5 million, first year of arbitration eligibility), Elieser Hernandez ($1.4M, first), Pablo López ($2.5M, first)

Near-locks, but injuries and relievers are tricky: Brian Anderson ($4.5M, second), Richard Bleier ($2.5M, third and final), Garrett Cooper ($3.0M, second), Dylan Floro ($2.4M, second)

Slightly better than 50/50: Jesús Aguilar ($7.4M, third and final), Jon Berti ($1.2M, first)

Easy non-tender for any other team, but the Marlins can’t seem to quit him: Lewis Brinson ($1.3M, first)

Easy non-tenders: Jorge Alfaro ($2.7M, first), Jeff Brigham ($600k, first), Magneuris Sierra ($700k, first)

In the seemingly impossible scenario that the Marlins agree to one-year contracts with all 13 eligibles, that’d cost somewhere in the $30-40 million range (MLBTR approximates $34.7 million).

One simple trick to get short-term savings on arb players is by extending them for multiple years and backloading the deal. During the 2021 season, the Miami Herald reported extension talks involving Alcantara and Aguilar, with Alcantara now believed to be the more likely of the two to get done.