Simulating the 2020 Marlins—Week 6

The 2020 Marlins regular season is off to a delayed start, but technology is a beautiful thing, ain’t it? Simulation games have created alternative universes in which this much-anticipated campaign is running precisely on schedule, featuring many of the players who were projected to make an impact for the real-life Fish.

At the end of each week, I will do a roundup of how the Marlins are performing.

Baseball-Reference

2020 season record: 16-18

Baseball-Reference is simulating the entire 2020 MLB schedule using the game Out of the Park Baseball 21 (OOTP 21). Results are published daily at around noon ET.

• Apr. 28—Mets 2, Marlins 0
• Apr. 29—Mets 10, Marlins 5
• Apr. 30—Mets 5, Marlins 2 (F/11)
• May 1—Pirates 2, Marlins 5
• May 2—Pirates 6, Marlins 4 (F/11)
• May 3—Pirates 2, Marlins 3

Congratulations, Miguel Rojas! He received NL Player of the Month honors for April, beating out finalists Ozzie Albies, Kris Bryant and David Dahl in a Twitter poll. Rojas has started all 34 games for the Marlins this season to put himself in the conversation for his first-ever All-Star selection.

Miami dipped below the .500 mark during a season-worst five-game losing streak. Impressive rookie left-hander Trevor Rogers dug them out of it with a quality start on Friday. He figures to stick in the rotation for the foreseeable future.

Lots of minor transactions during the week, including the release of right-hander Tyler Kolek. The No. 2 overall pick from the 2014 MLB Draft constantly struggled to throw strikes and he hasn’t regained his elite velocity after undergoing Tommy John and thoracic outlet surgeries. Still only 24 years old, he could draw interest from other organizations.

Adam Conley was DFA’d last month and went unclaimed. Somehow, he has made it back onto the active roster, helping the Marlins to a victory on Sunday out of the ‘pen.

The Athletic Alternate Universe

2020 season record: 13-21

Just like Baseball-Reference, staff members at The Athletic are using OOTP 21. Editor Or Moyal is serving as general manager for the Marlins.

However, their simulation began after the MLB Opening Day date and they are moving at an accelerated pace. Results for the Marlins are already available through June 4. For those who want to take a deep dive into the organization’s progress, TAAU also provides data for all Minor League Baseball affiliates.

• Apr. 28—Mets 1, Marlins 0
• Apr. 29—Mets 1, Marlins 4
• Apr. 30—Mets 5, Marlins 0
• May 1—Pirates 4, Marlins 3
• May 2—Pirates 3, Marlins 4
• May 3—Pirates 12, Marlins 2

Interesting week for Elieser Hernandez, who had arguably the best start of his career on Wednesday—7.1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K—and finished out the game on Sunday in relief. That lowered his earned run average to 2.91 (on a staff where nearly everybody else in above 5.00).

Wildly disappointing season so far for Jesús Aguilar (.152/.235/.239, 1 HR in 21 G) and also José Ureña (7.04 ERA, 6.41 FIP in 23.0 IP) who was tested as an “opener” this past weekend.

Strat-O-Matic

2020 season record: 14-20

The Strat-O-Matic 2020 Season Simulation spits outs its daily details at 2 p.m. ET.

• Apr. 28—Mets 2, Marlins 5
• Apr. 29—Mets 1, Marlins 5
• Apr. 30—Mets 8, Marlins 3
• May 1—Pirates 3, Marlins 13
• May 2—Pirates 4, Marlins 1
• May 3—Pirates 7, Marlins 6 (F/13)

Strange stat: Marlins pitchers collectively own a higher batting average (.245) than the position players (.239)! I’m skeptical of that lasting much longer. For context, the single-season franchise record for pitchers is their .176 mark from 2005.

Assuming Caleb Smith doesn’t get tripped up by an injury like he did in 2019, this is shaping up to be his big breakout year.

---

Next up

• May 4-7 vs. Brewers
• May 8-10 at Braves