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The Marlins still yearn for more cheap, controllable, high-upside talent to elevate their farm system to an elite level and lay the foundation for sustainable success. Stinking against major league competition this season is a critical step in that process. We don’t need to call it “tanking,” but let’s just say—behind closed doors—Miami’s front office will tolerate plenty of 2019 losses if it means selecting near the top of the 2020 MLB Draft and maximizing their 2020-21 international bonus pool. Fish Stripes will be monitoring this “race” for you (and creating new merch inspired by it).
FanGraphs ran performance projections for every team prior to Opening Day, but also continues to provide rest-of-season projections as the real games get played. See below for details regarding the five worst teams, including the Marlins, Orioles, Royals, Tigers, and Blue Jays entering Tuesday.
Tigers
2019 record and run differential (entering Tuesday): 46-109, minus-314
2019 projected record and run differential: 49-113, minus-320
Remaining schedule: 9/24-9/26 vs. Twins, 9/27-9/29 at White Sox (includes double-header 9/27)
Detroit went 1-5 over the last week, and with a full five-game lead over the Orioles, look like they will be the winners of Tank Race 2019 and the recipients of the top amateur draft pick in 2020.
Orioles
You guys the Orioles lost AND the made me stay up until 1 a.m. It’s not right. https://t.co/y9Tlyxqbxb
— Camden Chat (@CamdenChat) September 24, 2019
2019 record and run differential (entering Tuesday): 51-106, minus-265
2019 projected record and run differential: 53-109, minus-270
Remaining schedule: 9/24-9/25 at Blue Jays, 9/27-9/29 at Red Sox
The Orioles went 2-5 and just aren’t losing enough to catch the Tigers. Currently 4.5 games up on the Marlins, the O’s seem to have the second pick in 2020 on lockdown.
Marlins
2019 record and run differential (entering Tuesday): 55-101, minus-178
2019 projected record and run differential: 57-105, minus-189
Upcoming schedule: 9/24-9/26 at Mets, 9/27-9/29 at Phillies
The Fish crossed the 100-loss threshold despite a 3-3 week. Some things are just inevitable.
Royals
100 losses. Again. Does it matter? @CraigBrown_BP takes a closer look. https://t.co/Sj3f6ay6k6
— Royals Review (@royalsreview) September 23, 2019
2019 record and run differential (entering Tuesday): 57-100, minus-169
2019 projected record and run differential: 59-103, minus-173
Remaining schedule: 9/24-9/25 vs. Braves, 9/27-9/29 vs. Twins
The Royals lost five of six to join the three teams ahead of them in the Tank Race as 100-loss teams. Given their upcoming schedule, they could pass the Marlins for third place this week.
Blue Jays
2019 record and run differential (entering Tuesday): 64-93, minus-100
2019 projected record and run differential: 66-96, minus-103
Remaining schedule: 9/24-9/25 vs. Orioles, 9/27-9/29 vs. Rays
The Jays won five of their last seven, thanks almost entirely to beating the Orioles four times over the past week. If the trend continues, the Pirates could slide into fifth before season’s end as Toronto holds just a 1.5-game advantage.