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The Marlins still yearn for more cheap, controllable, high-upside talent to elevate their farm system to an elite level and lay the foundation for sustainable success. Stinking against major league competition this season is a critical step in that process. We don’t need to call it “tanking,” but let’s just say—behind closed doors—Miami’s front office will tolerate plenty of 2019 losses if it means selecting near the top of the 2020 MLB Draft and maximizing their 2020-21 international bonus pool. Fish Stripes will be monitoring this “race” for you (and creating new merch inspired by it).
FanGraphs ran performance projections for every team prior to Opening Day, but also continues to provide rest-of-season projections as the real games get played. See below for details regarding the five worst teams, including the Marlins, Orioles, Royals, Tigers, and Blue Jays.
Tigers
2019 record and run differential (entering Tuesday): 31-71, minus-208
2019 projected record and run differential: 55-107, minus-260
Upcoming schedule: 7/30-7/31 at Angels 8/2-8/4 at Rangers, 8/5-8/7 vs. White Sox (includes double header on 8/6), 8/8-8/11 vs. Royals
Congratulations, Detroit! Your Tigers won just one of their seven games this past week and took the lead in the tank race. They lost an astounding four games off their year-end projections as well and are currently slated to win the race by a game.
Orioles
Two pitches into Monday night’s game, the Orioles trailed the Padres, 2-0. Hopefully you went to bed then and there, because things didn’t get much better than that. Recapping an 8-1 loss: https://t.co/bNz9ODVUKC
— Camden Chat (@CamdenChat) July 30, 2019
2019 record and run differential (entering Tuesday): 35-71, minus-184
2019 projected record and run differential: 56-106, minus-255
Upcoming schedule: 7/30 at Padres, 8/1-8/4 vs. Blue Jays, 8/5-8/7 vs. Yankees, 8/9-8/11 vs. Astros
The Orioles followed a .500 week with a winning one, going 4-3 to add another win to their projected record and dropping them to second place. You’re going to have to do worse than that if you want the glory, boys!
Royals
2019 record and run differential (entering Tuesday): 40-68, minus-88
2019 projected record and run differential: 63-99, minus-128
Upcoming schedule: 7/30-7/31 vs. Blue Jays, 8/2-8/4 at Twins, 8/5-8/7 at Red Sox, 8/8-8/11 at Tigers
The Royals won three of seven but lost a game off their projections as a result. They’re currently six games behind the Tigers.
Blue Jays
2019 record and run differential (entering Tuesday): 41-67, minus-84
2019 projected record and run differential: 65-97, minus-112
Upcoming schedule: 7/30-7/31 at Royals, 8/1-8/4 at Baltimore, 8/5-8/7 at Rays, 8/8-8/11 at Yankees
The Jays had a .500 week but couldn’t keep behind the Marlins. The two teams each have 41 wins but Toronto has four more losses. The year-end record did not change north of the border, however.
Marlins
2018 season: 63-98, .391 winning percentage
— Fish Stripes (@fishstripes) July 30, 2019
2019 season: 41-63, .394 winning percentage
Progress! https://t.co/Nr9IWL07Mu
2019 record and run differential (entering Tuesday): 41-63, minus-97
2019 projected record and run differential: 64-98, minus-150
Upcoming schedule: 7/30-8/1 vs. Twins, 8/3-8/4 at Rays, 8/5-8/7 at Mets (double header on 8/5), 8/8-8/11 vs. Braves
The scorching-hot Fish went 5-1 and picked up two wins on their projection, WHICH MEANS THEY’RE NO LONGER PROJECTED FOR 100 LOSSES! Sorry, I got excited. They’re still projected to finish a game ahead of the Jays for fourth though.