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The Marlins still yearn for more cheap, controllable, high-upside talent to elevate their farm system to an elite level and lay the foundation for sustainable success. Stinking against major league competition this season is a critical step in that process. We don’t need to call it “tanking,” but let’s just say—behind closed doors—Miami’s front office will tolerate plenty of 2019 losses if it means selecting near the top of the 2020 MLB Draft and maximizing their 2020-21 international bonus pool. Fish Stripes will be monitoring this “race” for you (and creating new merch inspired by it).
FanGraphs ran performance projections for every team prior to Opening Day, but also continues to provide rest-of-season projections as the real games get played. See below for details regarding the five worst teams, including the Marlins, Orioles, Royals, Tigers, and Blue Jays.
Orioles
2019 record and run differential (entering Tuesday): 31-68, minus-187
2019 projected record and run differential: 55-107, minus-266
Upcoming schedule: 7/22-7/24 at Diamondbacks, 7/25-7/28 at Angels, 7/29-7/30 at Padres, 8/1-8/4 vs. Blue Jays
The Orioles had won three games for a .500 week and a win to their projected record. They now maintain just a one game advantage over the fast-losing Tigers.
Tigers
The Phillies basically want our whole dang team https://t.co/iiGNjuslxX
— Bless You Boys (@blessyouboys) July 23, 2019
2019 record and run differential (entering Tuesday): 30-65, minus-191
2019 projected record and run differential: 59-103, minus-227
Upcoming schedule: 7/23-7/24 vs. Phillies, 7/25-7/28 at Mariners, 7/29-7/31 at Angels 8/2-8/4 at Rangers
The Tigers dropped four of five and two wins off their final numbers. They are still two games behind the Orioles in that latter figure, however. With as many tradable assets as Detroit has, I could see this team a lot worse off in a week or so.
Royals
2019 record and run differential (entering Tuesday): 37-64, minus-76
2019 projected record and run differential: 64-98, minus-114
Upcoming schedule: 7/23-7/24 at Braves, 7/25-7/28 vs. Indians, 7/29-7/31 vs. Blue Jays, 8/2-8/4 at Twins
The Royals had a winning week at 4-2 and picked up two projected wins as a result.
Marlins
Career-worst 7 earned runs allowed pic.twitter.com/aBXTViWWhk
— Fish Stripes (@fishstripes) July 23, 2019
2019 record and run differential (entering Tuesday): 36-62, minus-106
2019 projected record and run differential: 62-100, minus-164
Upcoming schedule: 7/22-7/24 at White Sox, 7/26-7/29 vs. Diamondbacks, 7/30-8/1 vs. Twins, 8/3-8/4 at Rays,
The Fish went 2-5 and are now projected to be MLB’s third-worst team at 62-100.
Blue Jays
2019 record and run differential (entering Tuesday): 38-66, minus-83
2019 projected record and run differential: 65-97, minus-109
Upcoming schedule: 7/22-7/24 vs. Indians, 7/26-7/28 vs. Rays, 7/16-7/18 at Red Sox, 7/18-7/21 at Tigers,
The Jays won three of their seven contests, but lost a game from their projections. They also somehow gained 13 runs off their year-end run differential.