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Tank Race Tuesday: Tigers threaten to lead, Marlins back in fourth

Miami projects for even worse.

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The Marlins still yearn for more cheap, controllable, high-upside talent to elevate their farm system to an elite level and lay the foundation for sustainable success. Stinking against major league competition this season is a critical step in that process. We don’t need to call it “tanking,” but let’s just say—behind closed doors—Miami’s front office will tolerate plenty of 2019 losses if it means selecting near the top of the 2020 MLB Draft and maximizing their 2020-21 international bonus pool. Fish Stripes will be monitoring this “race” for you (and creating new merch inspired by it).

FanGraphs ran performance projections for every team prior to Opening Day, but also continues to provide rest-of-season projections as the real games get played. See below for details regarding the five worst teams, including the Marlins, Orioles, Royals, Tigers, and Blue Jays.

Orioles

2019 record and run differential (entering Tuesday): 31-68, minus-187

2019 projected record and run differential: 55-107, minus-266

Upcoming schedule: 7/22-7/24 at Diamondbacks, 7/25-7/28 at Angels, 7/29-7/30 at Padres, 8/1-8/4 vs. Blue Jays

The Orioles had won three games for a .500 week and a win to their projected record. They now maintain just a one game advantage over the fast-losing Tigers.

Tigers

2019 record and run differential (entering Tuesday): 30-65, minus-191

2019 projected record and run differential: 59-103, minus-227

Upcoming schedule: 7/23-7/24 vs. Phillies, 7/25-7/28 at Mariners, 7/29-7/31 at Angels 8/2-8/4 at Rangers

The Tigers dropped four of five and two wins off their final numbers. They are still two games behind the Orioles in that latter figure, however. With as many tradable assets as Detroit has, I could see this team a lot worse off in a week or so.

Royals

2019 record and run differential (entering Tuesday): 37-64, minus-76

2019 projected record and run differential: 64-98, minus-114

Upcoming schedule: 7/23-7/24 at Braves, 7/25-7/28 vs. Indians, 7/29-7/31 vs. Blue Jays, 8/2-8/4 at Twins

The Royals had a winning week at 4-2 and picked up two projected wins as a result.

Marlins

2019 record and run differential (entering Tuesday): 36-62, minus-106

2019 projected record and run differential: 62-100, minus-164

Upcoming schedule: 7/22-7/24 at White Sox, 7/26-7/29 vs. Diamondbacks, 7/30-8/1 vs. Twins, 8/3-8/4 at Rays,

The Fish went 2-5 and are now projected to be MLB’s third-worst team at 62-100.

Blue Jays

2019 record and run differential (entering Tuesday): 38-66, minus-83

2019 projected record and run differential: 65-97, minus-109

Upcoming schedule: 7/22-7/24 vs. Indians, 7/26-7/28 vs. Rays, 7/16-7/18 at Red Sox, 7/18-7/21 at Tigers,

The Jays won three of their seven contests, but lost a game from their projections. They also somehow gained 13 runs off their year-end run differential.