The Marlins still yearn for more cheap, controllable, high-upside talent to elevate their farm system to an elite level and lay the foundation for sustainable success. Stinking against major league competition this season is a critical step in that process. We don’t need to call it “tanking,” but let’s just say—behind closed doors—Miami’s front office will tolerate plenty of 2019 losses if it means selecting near the top of the 2020 MLB Draft and maximizing their 2020-21 international bonus pool. Fish Stripes will be monitoring this “race” for you (and creating new merch inspired by it).
FanGraphs ran performance projections for every team prior to Opening Day, but also continues to provide rest-of-season projections as the real games get played. See below for details regarding the five worst teams, including the Marlins, Orioles, Royals, Tigers, and Blue Jays.
2019 record and run differential (entering Tuesday): 28-65, minus-187
2019 projected record and run differential: 54-108, minus-254
Upcoming schedule: 7/16-7/17 vs. Nationals, 7/19-7/21 vs. Boston, 7/22-7/24 at Diamondbacks, 7/25-7/28 at Angels
The Orioles dropped three of four after the break. It is difficult to lose more than that. The result was another win lost from end-of-year projections.
Cleves 8, Tigers 6: Homers for everyone! https://t.co/Q85Xx5x9yg— Bless You Boys (@blessyouboys) July 16, 2019
2019 record and run differential (entering Tuesday): 29-60, minus-163
2019 projected record and run differential: 59-103, minus-227
Upcoming schedule: 7/15-7/18 at Indians, 7/19-7/21 vs. Blue Jays, 7/23-7/24 vs. Phillies, 7/25-7/28 at Mariners
Case in point: the Tigers also lost three of four. Oddly, Detroit’s end-of-year projections remained virtually the same, losing only one in run differential.
2019 record and run differential (entering Tuesday): 33-62, minus-85
2019 projected record and run differential: 62-100, minus-133
Upcoming schedule: 7/15-7/18 vs. White Sox, 7/19-7/21 at Indians, 7/23-7/24 at Braves, 7/25-7/28 vs. Indians
Largely because they played the Tigers, the Royals won three of four in the abbreviated week. That meant two wins to their final projected total.
2019 record and run differential (entering Tuesday): 35-60, minus-91
2019 projected record and run differential: 66-96, minus-122
Upcoming schedule: 7/16-7/18 at Red Sox, 7/18-7/21 at Tigers, 7/22-7/24 vs. Indians, 7/26-7/28 vs. Rays
The Jays preferred to keep pace with the leaders, dropping 75 percent of their games. They have several contenders on their immediate schedule.
Lowly Mets upset Marlins, take 2 of 3 to open 2nd half of season https://t.co/BpifQyiiVN— Fish Stripes (@fishstripes) July 15, 2019
2019 record and run differential (entering Tuesday): 34-57, minus-89
2019 projected record and run differential: 63-99, minus-150
Upcoming schedule: 7/16-7/18 vs. Padres, 7/19-7/21 at Dodgers, 7/22-7/24 at White Sox, 7/26-7/29 vs. Diamondbacks
The Marlins only lost two of three, so they slightly improved against the pack. Their end-of-year numbers remain completely unchanged from last week.