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Tank Race Tuesday: Marlins drop to fourth, Orioles still leading

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The Marlins’ recent hot streak has them in the same spot where they just drafted J.J. Bleday

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The Marlins still yearn for more cheap, controllable, high-upside talent to elevate their farm system to an elite level and lay the foundation for sustainable success. Stinking against major league competition this season is a critical step in that process. We don’t need to call it “tanking,” but let’s just say—behind closed doors—Miami’s front office will tolerate plenty of 2019 losses if it means selecting near the top of the 2020 MLB Draft and maximizing their 2020-21 international bonus pool. Fish Stripes will be monitoring this “race” for you (and creating new merch inspired by it).

FanGraphs ran performance projections for every team prior to Opening Day, but also continues to provide rest-of-season projections as the real games get played. See below for details regarding the six worst teams, including the Marlins, Orioles, Royals, Tigers, Blue Jays, and Mariners.

Orioles

2019 record and run differential (entering Tuesday): 18-41, minus-121

2019 projected record and run differential: 57-105, minus-253

Upcoming schedule: 6/4-6/6 at Rangers, 6/7-6-9 at Astros, 6/11-6/13 vs. Blue Jays, 6/14-6/16 vs. Red Sox

The Orioles dropped four of five and thereby maintained the no. 1 spot in the tank race. They currently hold a one-game lead over the Royals but picked up two games over everybody in the end-of-season projections.

Royals

2019 record and run differential (entering Tuesday): 19-40, minus-54

2019 projected record and run differential: 64-98, minus-117

Upcoming schedule: 6/4-6/6 vs. Red Sox, 6/7-6/9 vs. White Sox, 6/11-6/13 vs. Tigers, 6/14-6/16 at Twins

The Royals equaled the O’s over the last week and moved up to second where they just grabbed Bobby Witt, Jr. in this year’s draft. They lost two games off their projected win total.

Blue Jays

2019 record and run differential (entering Tuesday): 21-38, minus-65

2019 projected record and run differential: 67-95, minus-102

Upcoming schedule: 6/4-6/6 vs. Yankees, 6/7-6/9 vs. Arizona, 6/11-6/13 at Orioles, 6/14-6/16 at Astros

The Jays lost all five of their games over the past week and jumped to the third spot, passing the Marlins and Tigers. Toronto’s projected win and run differential fell by three and 17, respectively.

Marlins

2019 record and run differential (entering Tuesday): 21-36, minus-74

2019 projected record and run differential: 64-98, minus-164

Upcoming schedule: 6/4-6/6 at Brewers, 6/7-6/9 vs. Braves, 6/10-6/12 vs. Cardinals, 6/14-6/16 vs. Pirates

The Marlins continued to roll, winning four of six. They picked up only a game on their end-of-season projection, however, and are now slotted to tie for second with Kansas City.

Tigers

2019 record and run differential (entering Tuesday): 22-34, minus-98

2019 projected record and run differential: 65-97, minus-190

Upcoming schedule: 6/4-6/6 vs. Rays, 6/7-6/9 vs. Twins, 6/11-6/13 at Royals, 6/14-6/16 vs. Indians

The Tigers also had a winning record for the week, going 3-2. They have a tough week ahead though.

Mariners

2019 record and run differential (entering Tuesday): 25-38, minus-73

2019 projected record and run differential: 71-91, minus-112

Upcoming schedule: 6/4-6/6 vs. Houston, 6/7-6/9 at Angels, 6/11-6/13 at Twins, 6/14-6/16 at A’s

Congrats to the M’s on being the latest team to appear here. After a 13-2 start to the season, they’ve gone 12-36 since, including 1-6 over the past week. Having already foreshadowed a full-on firesale with the trade of Jay Bruce to the Phillies over the weekend, Seattle has an excellent chance to continue to move up.