They say you can’t predict the future, they say tomorrow is an unknown. Well, I’m here to tell them that’s not entirely true...at least when it comes to fantasy baseball, anyway.
I want you guys to remember one thing: probability. A quick Google search tells us that probability is the likelihood of something happening or not happening. How does this apply to fantasy baseball? Because fantasy winners are the ones who can anticipate which players are likely to be productive.
Who has a higher probability of racking up fantasy points, Starlin Castro of the Marlins or Texas Rangers second baseman Rougned Odor? If you look at where they were drafted in most ESPN leagues this preseason, the popular answer was Odor. Odor had an average draft position (ADP) of around 100th overall in standard ESPN Fantasy baseball leagues. Whereas Castro was drafted around 270th or not drafted at all.
Since 2014, Odor has had a batting average above .270 one time. He finished at .271 in 2016. That’s it. Starlin Castro has hit above .270 seven times since 2010. In hindsight, Starlin Castro was obviously the safer bet to contribute in that department.
Oh, but Odor hits more home runs! And it is true that “chicks love the long ball,” but Odor has only had 20-plus home runs three times since 2014, averaging 22 per season. In that time, Starlin has averaged 13. So does nine home runs justify their difference in ADP? After all, that’s just one category. Yet, people still drafted Odor with Castro is still available in 41.5% of ESPN leagues, as of Tuesday afternoon.
Odor was dropped in most leagues a month ago after his averaged dipped again, but is now seeing a late surge of additions do to a recent three-game hot streak. However, Castro has performed dramatically better across the board, most importantly in terms of durability. Did I mention he is still available in 41.5% of leagues?!
Now that we’re all familiar with the concept of probability, let’s look at this week’s Marlins players that I believe you must add to any of your teams.
Starlin Castro is an obvious must-add immediately, especially with his hot streak in recent games, but there are more undervalued options to take advantage of now before you pay extra for it later.
- First on our list is a player who is currently hitting .276 with 19 RBI and he’s the No. 1 rated defender for all shortstops. Sure. JT Riddle missed some time, but how can you not add him knowing what we know now? The guy has hit at every level he has ever played in, and he’s made adjustments in the majors after an uneven 2017 debut. You won’t have to trade for him—Riddle is only owned in 1.5% of leagues.
- Although his birth name is Brian Anderson, we know him as “2018 NL Rookie of the Year.” BA is hitting .284 with 7 HR and 45 RBI. He is only owned in 61.9% of leagues despite a well-rounded game and no durability concerns. Come on, guys...
We've already established that BA is good. Riddle is also good. Just different skill sets. The Marlins have (health permitting) discovered two good, homegrown, everyday players. https://t.co/eaXlIHvh03— Fish Stripes (@fishstripes) July 10, 2018
Fantasy sports should be that easy. There is still time to turn your season around. Just look for what’s probable! Join us here weekly as we discuss Marlins must-haves/drops and an all-around MLB outlook when it comes to fantasy baseball.