The Marlins are projected to win 76 games in 2017, according to Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA rankings released Tuesday.
Though the Marlins return most players from the 2016 roster, the three win differential when compared to Miami’s 2016 record (79 wins) likely reflects how the system expects Miami’s rotation to perform without a clear ace. PECOTA’s win total is generous when considering Jose Fernandez posted a 6.1 WAR last season.
Miami has had a fairly active offseason, acquiring Dan Straily and signing free agents Edinson Volquez, Jeff Locke, Janichi Tazawa and Brad Ziegler. The club has indeed built a “super bullpen,” but the projections could reflect doubt with regard to the club’s starting rotation.
The Marlins’ projected win total is the same as Arizona’s, with the Mets and Nationals emerging as the division’s top two teams. Atlanta is projected to win 75 games, and the Phillies are expected to win 72.
Entering 2017, the Marlins believe they will continue to build on last season’s success. The PECOTA projections suggest otherwise.