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Marlins vs. Phillies: Game 139 Thread

Marlins looking to stop five game skid, send Cahsner to face Hellickson

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The Marlins have lost five in a row and are trying to avoid their second consecutive sweep versus the struggling Phillies.

Mattingly's club has dropped 10 of their last 11, marking one of the worst skids of the season for the Fish, at a time when consistency is everything.

Anything can happen in the month of September, yet three games under the .500 mark and 6 games back of the Cardinals for the second Wild Card in the NL is becoming too much.

If the Marlins want to salvage this season and have a chance, they need to start that run tonight versus a team that has been a bottom feeder since the middle of the year.

Cashner, Hellickson

Team Starter ERA FIP 2016 ZIPS Projected ERA
PHI Jeremy Hellickson 3.88 4.20 4.65
MIA Andrew Cashner 5.00 4.76 4.26

This will be Cashner's eighth start with the Marlins since they acquired some rotational depth before the trade deadline. Unfortunately, he has been all over the place since joining the Marlins. with the only consistency of late being a clear lack of control. Walking a total of 17 batters in his last four starts. Oddly enough over those seven starts, he seems to struggle when he has struck out more batters. The only three sub 2 earned run starts mixed into his run have come with four strikeouts or less. In each of his blow up starts, five or more earned runs, he has struck out five or more batters.

With really no idea what to make of Cashner at the moment, the Marlins are hoping he can at least contribute quality innings to a team that is in desperate need of pitching with Chen and Conley on the DL and Jose Fernandez nearing an innings limit.

Jeremy Hellickson on the other hand will be facing the Marlins for the fifth time this season, and the Marlins have just about seen enough of his changeup.

Versus teams Hellickson has faced three or more times, the only team he possesses a sub 3 ERA against and a sub .210 batting average against is the Miami Marlins. In his 25 innings of work, he has a WHIP under 1.00 and 27 strikeouts to only three walks. You'd think as a team sees a pitcher more, they would come more prepared to succeed, but that has not been the case this season against Hellickson.

If you want to take a look at the improvement Hellickson has made in his elite changeup, take a peak at the graph below...

The second yellow line on the right side is the whiff percentage when Hellickson has thrown his changeup this season. Far better than the results he got with the pitch in 2015, it's one of the best pitches in baseball.

Today's Lineups

Stanton, although surprisingly activated from the DL, will not get the start tonight as he is still limited to pinch-hit duties.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES MIAMI MARLINS
Cesar Hernandez - 2B Dee Gordon - 2B
Aaron Altherr - LF Ichiro Suzuki - LF
Odubel Herrera - CF Martin Prado - 3B
Tommy Joseph - 1B Christian Yelich - CF
Freddy Galvis - SS Marcell Ozuna - RF
A.J. Ellis - C Justin Bour - 1B
Andres Blanco - 3B J.T. Realmuto - C
Peter Bourjos - RF Adeiny Hechavarria - SS
Jeremy Hellickson - RHP Andrew Cashner - RHP

Prediction: Marlins halt skid, win 5-3