Heroes and Zeroes: Marlins 4, Pirates 3

Throughout the 2016 regular season, I'm tracking each player involved in each Marlins game. Using the WPA metric (Wins Probability Added), we can order the players from the most positive impact all the way down to most negative. The top three are our "Heroes," and the bottom three rank as our "Zeroes."

Heroes

Nick Wittgren (MIA) +39.4%

Wittgren pitched the 10th, 11th, and 12th innings for the Marlins, and earned the victory by allowing exactly zero baserunners and striking out three Pirates. It was his first decision of the season and also dropped his ERA to an impressive 1.59. He put 24-of-34 pitches in the strikezone during his appearance.

Christian Yelich (MIA) +39.0%

Yelich batted third for the Fish out of left field. He hit a two-out single to left field in the first (+1.2%) and a one out single to right in the third (+3.2%), later scoring on a JT Realmuto sacrifice fly for a 2-0 Marlins lead. The rest of "regulation" wouldn't see many more of his heroics - a line out leading off the fifth (-0.8%), a strikeout with a man on second and one out in the seventh (-2.8%), then another fly out to lead off the 10th (-5.6%). His big bop, of course, was a walk-off double to center field with two out in the bottom of the 12th, which scored Martin Prado (+43.9%).

John Jaso (PIT) +26.5%

Jaso pinch hit in the bottom of the ninth, with two outs and a man on second base, and hit a game-tying, RBI single to center field (+32.2%). He grounded out to second to lead off the 12th (-5.7%).

Almost Heroes

Wei-Win Chen (MIA) +14.8%

Neftali Feliz (PIT) +13.1%

Dustin McGowan (MIA) +12.3%

Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) +10.2%

Ichiro! Suzuki (MIA) +7.6%

Matt Joyce (PIT) +7.0%

Jody Mercer (PIT) +5.2%

Jared Hughes (PIT) +4.0%

David Freese (PIT) +3.8%

Minimal Impact

Mark Melancon (PIT) +2.8%

Francisco Cervelli (PIT) +2.6%

Gregory Polanco (PIT) +1.9%

Sean Rodriguez (PIT) +0.7%

Adeiny Hechavarria (MIA) -1.0%

Miguel Rojas (MIA) -3.2%

Chris Johnson (MIA) -3.3%

Almost Zeroes

Marcell Ozuna (MIA) -5.6%

Cole Gillespie (MIA) -5.6%

Cole Figueroa (PIT) -5.7%

JT Realmuto (MIA) -6.8%

Justin Bour (MIA) -7.6%

Josh Harrison (PIT) -14.7%

AJ Schugel (PIT) -14.8%

Jung Ho Kang (PIT) -15.4%

Martin Prado (MIA) -18.8%

Chris Stewart (PIT) -19.9%

Zeroes

Juan Nicasio (PIT) -20.4%

Nicasio started for the Pirates and pitched a total of six innings. He allowed three walks and six hits for three earned runs, striking out four Marlins for their trouble. He earned a no-decision, and slightly dropped his ERA to 4.75 on the season. He put 66-of-103 pitches over the plate.

Kyle Barraclough (MIA) -21.4%

Barraclough came on to pitch the ninth for Miami in a save situation, with a 3-2 lead. He faced six batters, allowing one walk and Jaso's game-tying hit. He struck out two Pirates, raised his ERA to 3.60, and got just 13 of his 27 pitches into the strike zone.

Starling Marte (PIT) -22.0%

Marte batted sixth and played left field for Pittsburgh. He grounded out with a man on for the second out of the second inning (-1.9%), struck out to end the fourth (-0.8%), flew out with two runners on base for the first out of the seventh (-6.5%), grounded out to lead off the ninth (-7.1%), and struck out to lead off the 11th inning (-5.7%).

Last 10 Games

Christian Yelich +64.8%

Derek Dietrich +60.5%

Nick Wittgren +58.0%

Jose Fernandez +54.2%

AJ Ramos +38.2%

Wei-Yin Chen +28.7%

Marcell Ozuna +25.8%

Adeiny Hechavarria +18.1%

Dustin McGowan +14.9%

Chris Johnson +13.3%

Cole Gillespie +9.3%

David Phelps +8.9%

Giancarlo Stanton +6.8%

Adam Conley +4.0%

Edwin Jackson -5.3%

Jeff Mathis -8.5%

Kyle Barraclough -9.1%

Miguel Rojas -9.2%

Bryan Morris -9.3%

Tom Koehler -13.3%

Justin Bour -14.1%

Mike Dunn -22.3%

Justin Nicolino -23.1%

Martin Prado -30.3%

Ichiro Suzuki -36.6%

JT Realmuto -37.2%

Jose Urena -62.0%

Ichthyomancy

Attendance: 19,907

paolo2387: 14,000

Marlins 5-3 (1)

H: Ichiro, Chen, Yelich (1)

Z: Bour, Hechavarria, Rojas

Marlins win a challenge; Ramos SV; Chen QS w/ 6+IP, 4+K, 3+BB, 3ER, and 1HRA (this is super close, I'll give you a point because you were in the "ballpark." (1)

2qbn: 15,240

Marlins 5-3 (1)

H: Chen, Yelich, Bour (1)

Z: Nicasio, Freese, Kang (1)

Chen QS; Yelich 2RBI; Bour HR (1)

Marlon D: 14,583

Marlins 5-2 (1)

H: Chen, Bour, Prado

Z: Kang, Freese, Realmuto

Infield 4+H; Bour 2b

gustavopim: 11,789

Marlins 11-10 (2)

H: Stanton, Bour, Suzuki

Z: Nicasio, Bour, Kang (1)

Chen 12+K; Marlins 3+HR; Walk off win - * Gustavopim said he wasn't really trying because he felt bad for all you guys, and yet correctly predicted a one-run win, one of the zeroes, and Miami's first walk off of the season. (4)

evermoresg: 16,225 (2)

Marlins 6-4 (1)

H: Stanton, Chen, Yelich (1)

Z: Hechavarria, Nicasio, Cervelli (1)

Stanton 1+HR; Chen QS; Marlins 2+HR; Someone accidentally fires a gun at the ballpark (does the parking lot count?) (1)

Ichthyomancy Standings

gustavopim 166

Shimmy_812 131

2qbn 119

Marlon D 100

evermoresg 97.5

Jigokusabre 88

paolo2387 57

Madrid3004 29.5

Tomorrow night, the Marlins kick off a three game series with the New York Mets in Marlins Park. Get your picks in before the scheduled first pitch, set to go at 7:10PM.