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BOLD PREDICTIONS Which of these 15 Marlins predictions is most realistic?

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Marlins vs. Braves: Game 72 Thread

Marlins and Adam Conley try to shake off extra innings loss to Braves last night

By Lance Brozdowski
Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Jose Fernandez and the Marlins dropped the first of a two game set with the Braves last night, despite a stellar outing from the ace of their staff. Fernandez was removed after seven innings of one-hit baseball, even though he hadn't crossed the 100 pitch mark. With David Pehlps having a fantastic season, it seemed like the logical move to go to him in the top of the 8th with a lead, but Phelps blew his fourth save of the season, and the Marlins lost in the top of the 10th. All runs were scored off the bat of second basemen Jace Peterson.

Adam Conley takes the hill today at 12:10pm ET today, squaring off against John Gant.

Team Starter ERA FIP 2016 ZIPS Projected ERA
MIA Adam Conley 3.94 3.84 3.99
ATL John Gant 4.37 3.74 4.58

This will be Adam Conley's 15th start of the season and to this point it has been a roller coaster of emotions. At times, the Marlin's young lefty has shown flashes of dominance, taking no-hitters into the fifth inning of games multiple times. Unfortunately, at other times Conley hasn't been able to locate, leaving him with uninspiring lines of five and seven walks on separate occasions. Yet with the ups and downs of his season, the endless Chris Sale comparisons by opposing broadcasts continue to unearth the fact that this kid has immense talent. Some minor harnessing of his funky mechanics and he'll hopefully develop into what Marlin's fans hope is a clear #2 starter.

With the Brave's sending John Gant to the mound for just his third start of the season, there is no shortage of unorthodox deliveries among these two starting pitchers. Gant started his season with a windup which seemed to fit in the 1920s, raising his leg twice before firing to the plate. Mainly used as a reliever in April and May before being sent back to the minor leagues, Gant has shown no signs of changing out of his unique habit, claiming that it gives him, "...absolutely no advantage whatsoever.... It's comfortable." Gant sits in the low 90s with his fastball and mixes in both a changeup and curveball, the hook being the better of his two offerings thus far in his young career.

Today's Lineups

ATLANTA BRAVES MIAMI MARLINS
Jace Peterson - 2B Ichiro Suzuki - RF
Ender Inciarte - CF Adeiny Hechavarria - SS
Freddie Freeman - 1B Christian Yelich - LF
Jeff Francoeur - LF Marcell Ozuna - CF
Nick Markakis - RF Justin Bour - 1B
Tyler Flowers - C Derek Dietrich - 2B
Chase d'Arnaud - 3B Chris Johnson - 3B
Erick Aybar - SS Jeff Mathis - C
John Gant - RHP Adam Conley - LHP

Notes...

  • Giancarlo Stanton will sit after going 0-for-5 last night with two strikeouts versus Bud Norris and the Braves. After stringing together a four game hit streak, which featured three multi-hit games and one homer, the rough game last night isn't an encouraging sign as Marlin's fans try to will their slugger out of his June mishaps. Unless his side ailment was reignited last night, look for Stanton to either pinch-hit today or start tomorrow versus the Cub's lefty, Jon Lester.
  • While splits are often fun to look at, but often hold little merit, Adam Conley has actually started five day games for the Marlins this season, his sixth will be today. That ties him for the team lead with Tom Koehler, who has also made six day starts of his own. Oddly enough, both pitchers have ERAs that are higher in their day game starts than any of their night game starts. Even more confusing is the extreme lack of control for both Marlin's arms with these matinees. Conley has 15 walks to 17 Ks in 23 innings, versus 19 walks to 55 Ks in his 52 innings at night. Koehler has a similar issue, with 23 walks to 27 Ks in 31.1 innings, versus 21 walks to 38 Ks in 46.1 innings at night. They say pitchers are creatures of habit, and breaking of routine may be one of the explanations to mull over when trying to describe this phenomenon.
  • The Braves pitcher for the day was originally slated to be Matt Wisler, the big piece in the Craig Kimbrel deal a few years back, but he will be pushed to Thursday in order to avoid John Gant pitching two straight games against the Mets. This is an interesting tactic by the Braves as they seem to think that seeing Gant's stuff for the second time would be a huge disadvantage to their chances of an elusive W. For comparison, Jameson Taillon's first two starts of the season both came against the Mets, and in his second outing, Taillon carried a no hitter through six innings. Sure they are pitchers of different calibers, but the Braves clearly have an inclination on this matter.
  • Vegas has the Marlin's favorited nicely at -161 to the Braves +146. The over/under on the game is 7.5 total runs, with the under being favorited at a -120 clip.
Prediction: Marlins squeak by Braves for two game split, win 4-3

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