Heroes and Zeroes: Rockies 5, Marlins 3

Throughout the 2016 regular season, I'm tracking each player involved in each Marlins game. Using the WPA metric (Wins Probability Added), we can order the players from the most positive impact all the way down to most negative. The top three are our "Heroes," and the bottom three rank as our "Zeroes."

Heroes

Mark Reynolds (COL) +29.4%

Reynolds batted seventh for the Rockies and played first base. He hit a solo-home run in with one out in the second to tie the score at two (+11.1%), drew a two-out walk in the third (+1.2%), Hit a two-out solo homer in the sixth for a 4-3 lead (+18.6%), and struck out in the eighth (-1.6%).

Miguel Castro (COL) +18.7%

Castro was only on for a total of three pitches, and only one of those was for a strike. Fortunately for him and the rest of the Rockies, that strike was an inning ending double play hit by Miguel Prado with runners on first and second (+18.7%).

Charlie Blackmon (COL) +16.5%

Blackmon led off and played center field for Colorado. He flew out in the first (-2.2%), flew out to end the second (-1.0%), singled to lead off the fifth (+4.8%), hit a failed-sacrifice / successful bunt single in the seventh (+5.3%), and hit an insurance one-out homer in the ninth (+9.5%).

Almost Heroes

Adeiny Hechavarria (MIA) +15.4%

Mike Dunn (MIA) +14.9%

Jason Motte (COL) +13.6%

Marcell Ozuna (MIA) +13.1% (LAST 10 #2 HERO)

DJ LaMahieu (COL) +11.1%

Nick Hundley (COL) +10.9%

Carlos Estevez (COL) +8.4%

Christian Yelich (MIA) +6.7%

Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) +5.7%

Minimal Impact

Boone Logan (COL) +5.4%

Dustin McGowan (MIA) +4.8%

Cristhian Adames (COL) +3.6%

Trevor Story (COL) +2.8%

Ichiro Suzuki (MIA) +1.3%

JT Realmuto (MIA) +0.0% (LAST 10 #1 HERO)

Daniel Descalso (COL) -1.5%

Cole Gillespie (MIA) -2.1%

Brandon Barnes (COL) -2.1%

Almost Zeroes

Jorge de la Rosa (COL) -4.0%

Nick Wittgren (MIA) -7.1%

Chris Johnson (MIA) -7.5%

Paul Clemens (MIA) -9.6%

Ryan Raburn (COL) -12.1%

Chad Qualls (COL) -13.6%

Carlos Gonzalez (COL) -16.7%

Martin Prado (MIA) -18.8%

Justin Bour (MIA) -19.1%

Zeroes

Nolan Arenado (COL) -20.5%

Arenado batted third in the order and played third base for Colorado. He hit a two-out single in the first (+1.2%), grounded out to third in the third (-1.5%), grounded into a double play for the first two outs of the fifth (-13.4%), struck out with the bases loaded in the seventh (-6.0%), and struck out with a man on first for the second out of the ninth (-0.9%).

Brian Ellington (MIA) -21.5%

Ellington pitched the sixth, and allowed a Mark Reynolds solo homer run (-18.6%). In the seventh, he walked Cristhian Adames (-3.6%), allowed an infield single to Charlie Blackmon (-5.3%), then gave up a DJ LeMahieu single to right (-6.7%) to load the bases. He struck out Nolan Arenado (+6.0%) before getting lifted for Mike Dunn.

Derek Dietrich (MIA) -26.3%

Dietrich batted seventh and played second base for the Marlins. He grounded out in the second (-1.7%), hit into a double play with runners on the corners to end the fourth (-14.2%), grounded out to the pitcher with a runner on second to end the sixth (-6.0%), and struck out to start the ninth (-4.4%).

Best and Worst

Best

Marlins: Marcell Ozuna's second solo shot of the day, which tied the score at three (+14.1%).

Rockies: Mark Reynolds second solo homer of the day, which gave the Rockies a 4-3 lead (+18.6%).

Worst

Marlins: Martin Prado grounding into a double play with two runners on base to end the seventh (-18.7%).

Rockies: Nolan Arenado grounding into a double play for the first two outs of the fifth (-14.2%).

Last 10 Games

		Game 61	Game 62	Game 63	Game 64	Game 65	Game 66	Game 67	Game 68	Game 69	Game 70	Rolling 10-game average
JT Realmuto	MIA		0.160	-0.043	0.016		0.112	-0.122	0.393		0	5.16
Marcell Ozuna	MIA	0.075	-0.085	-0.032	-0.07	-0.012	0.017	0.061	-0.03	0.393	0.131	4.48
Tom Koehler	MIA					0.089				0.329		4.18
Christian Yelich	MIA	0.26	-0.281	-0.031	-0.029	-0.01	0.042	0.308	0.174	-0.089	0.067	4.11
Martin Prado	MIA	0.052	0.171	-0.007	0.259	0.05	-0.01	0.008	0.001	0.006	-0.188	3.42
Justin Bour	MIA	0.316	-0.110		0.16		-0.035	-0.055	0.215		-0.191	3
David Phelps	MIA	0.09				0.041		0.021	0.039	0.039		2.3
Jeff Mathis	MIA	0.03				0.244				-0.049		2.25
Kyle Barraclough	MIA	-0.01				0.045		0.093	0.043	0.043		2.14
AJ Ramos	MIA	0.093				0.032			0.03	0.030		1.85
Ichiro Suzuki	MIA	-0.016	0.04	0.003	0.096	-0.002	0.013	0.019	0.007		0.013	1.73
Mike Dunn	MIA		-0.041		0		0.005		0.045		0.149	1.58
Dustin McGowan	MIA			0.005				0.013	0.066		0.048	1.32
Adeiny Hechavarria	MIA	0.018	-0.127	-0.004	0.085	0.023	0.056	-0.084	-0.002	0.003	0.154	1.22
Giancarlo Stanton	MIA	-0.024	-0.003	-0.02		-0.064	-0.02	0.079	0.11	-0.099	0.057	0.16
Nick Wittgren	MIA		0.015		0.001		-0.037	0.075			-0.071	-0.17
Paul Clemens	MIA										-0.096	-0.96
Cole Gillespie	MIA		-0.078	0	0		-0.031		0.048	-0.033	-0.021	-1.15
Derek Dietrich	MIA		0.143	-0.021	0.015		-0.02	0.048	-0.023	-0.003	-0.263	-1.24
Chris Johnson	MIA	-0.08		-0.007	0	0.094	-0.024	-0.006	0.001	-0.028	-0.075	-1.25
Miguel Rojas	MIA	-0.018		0.007	0	-0.029	-0.051	-0.001		-0.043		-1.35
Brian Ellington	MIA	0.005			0.001		0.009				-0.215	-2
Jose Fernandez	MIA		-0.304									-3.04
Adam Conley	MIA			-0.351				0.042				-3.09
Wei-Yin Chen	MIA				-0.032				-0.620			-6.52
Justin Nicolino	MIA	-0.291					-0.527					-8.18

Ichthyomancy

Attendance: 18,187

2qbn: 13,200
Rockies 5-3
H: Arenado, Gonzalez, Stanton
Z: Clemens, Dietrich, Johnson
Stanton HR; Ichiro H; Clemens gives up four runs.

Marlon D: 14,720
Marlins 4-3
H: Stanton, Gonzalez, Realmuto
Z: Arenado, Blackmon, Johnson
Ichiro 2b; Clemens 6+K

gustavopim: 18,890
Marlins 5-3
H: Clemens, Ozuna, Dietrich
Z: Blackmon, Clemens, de la Rosa
Clemens 5+IP & gives up four or less runs; Dietrich on base 2x; Stanton HR

evermoresg: 15,692
Marlins 7-5
H: Suzuki, Stanton, Gonzalez
Z: de la Rosa, Hundley, Clemens
SPs IP≤5.0 ER≥3 each; Ichiro 5+ TB; Marlins 2+ HR

Kevin Kraczkowski: 17,885
Marlins 5-3
H: Realmuto, Clemens, Hechavarria
Z: Blackmon, Hundley, Arenado
Marlins exactly one home run with exactly 2 RBI; Marlins pitching gets more K’s than Marlins’ hitting; Nobody scores in any even numbered inning.

Ichthyomancy Standings

evermoresg	24
gustavopim	22
Kevin Kraczkowski	19
Marlon D	18.5
2qbn	15

Tomorrow, the Marlins will kick off a two-game series against the Atlanta Braves with the first pitch scheduled for 7:10PM at Marlins' Park. Get your picks in soon, and GO FISH.