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Heroes and Zeroes: Padres 6, Marlins 3

Miami jumped out to an early lead, but Justin Nicolino couldn't turn in a quality start in the Marlins' loss.

Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Throughout the 2016 regular season, I'm tracking each player involved in each Marlins game. Using the WPA metric (Wins Probability Added), we can order the players from the most positive impact all the way down to most negative. The top three are our "Heroes," and the bottom three rank as our "Zeroes."


Melvin Upton (SD) +28.9%

Upton was penciled in at sixth in San Diego's order, and played out of left field. He hit a solo home run in the second inning to tie the game at one (+12.6%), then smacked a one-out double to left in the fourth (+5.2%), scoring later on Ryan Schimpf's sacrifice fly. In the fifth, he hit a two-out RBI single to center field to score Derek Norris for a 5-3 lead (+10.6%). Upton has hit by pitch in his final plate appearance in the seventh (+0.2%) and was later balked to second (+0.3%).

Derek Norris (SD) +24.8%

Norris caught and batted fifth for the Padres. He grounded out to lead off the second (-2.4%) and struck out to lead off the fourth (-2.7%). With two outs in the fifth, he hit a two-RBI single to left field for a 4-3 Padres lead (+30.2%). He flew out in the seventh inning to JT Realmuto (-0.3%).

JT Realmuto (MIA) +11.2%

Realmuto batted sixth and caught for Miami. He grounded out to lead off the second (-1.9%), hit an RBI single with one out in the fourth for a 2-1 Miami lead (+18.2%), and struck out for the second out of the sixth (-3.7%). He flew out to end the eighth in his final plate appearance of the day (-1.5%).

Almost Heroes

Adeiny Hechavarria (MIA) +5.6%

Christian Yelich (MIA) +4.2%

Brandon Maurer (SD) +3.8%

Ryan Buchter (SD) +3.4%

Alexei Ramirez (SD) +3.1%

Fernando Rodney (SD) +2.6%

Marcell Ozuna (MIA) +1.7%

Jon Jay (SD) +1.5%

Minimal Impact

Ichiro Suzuki (MIA) +1.3% (LAST 10 #2 HERO)

Brian Ellington (MIA) +0.9%

Mike Dunn (MIA) +0.5%

Christian Bethancourt (SD) -0.1%

Alexi Amarista (SD) -0.7%

Martin Prado (MIA) -1.0% (LAST 10 #1 HERO)

Matt Kemp (SD) -1.6%

Ryan Schimpf (SD) -1.9%

Almost Zeroes

Derek Dietrich (MIA) -2.0%

Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) -2.0%

Chris Johnson (MIA) -2.4%

Yangervis Solarte (SD) -2.6%

Wil Myers (SD) -2.8%

Cole Gillespie (MIA) -3.1%

Justin Bour (MIA) -3.5%

Nick Wittgren (MIA) -3.7%


Miguel Rojas (MIA) -5.1%

Rojas played second base and batted eighth for the Marlins. He grounded out to end the second (-0.9%), hit a sacrifice fly with the bases loaded in the fourth (+1.4%), and flew out with two runners on base in the sixth (-5.6%).

Luis Perdomo (SD) -8.4%

Perdomo faced 26 batters in six innings and allowed three earned runs. He struck out four Marlins and allowed six hits along with two free passes. He won the contest to push his record to 2-2 for the season, and dropped his ERA by almost a full run to 8.79. Perdomo got 58-of-94 pitches into the strikezone and earned a GameScore of 50.

Justin Nicolino (MIA) -52.7%

Nicolino faced 24 batters and allowed 10 hits for an in-game WHIP of 2.143. He allowed five earned runs, striking out three Padres, although he didn't give up any walks. His record dropped to 2-4 for the season while his ERA climbed to 5.17, with a GameScore of 27. Of his 69 pitches, he got 47 over the plate.

Best and Worst


Marlins: JT Realmuto's RBI single to right field in the fourth inning (+18.2%).

Padres: Derek Norris' two-RBI single to left in the fifth inning (+30.2%).


Marlins: Marcell Ozuna's double play for the first two outs of the first inning (-8.9%).

Padres: Wil Myers flying out to center field with runners on first and second base for the first out of the third inning (-6.0%).

Last 10 Games

Martin Prado +73.9%
Ichiro Suzuki +48.8%
Kyle Barraclough +30.6%
AJ Ramos +27.6%
Jeff Mathis +27.4%
JT Realmuto +25.9%
Adeiny Hechavarria +17.9%
Tom Koehler +12.4%
Jose Fernandez +10.1%
David Phelps +9.9%
Justin Bour +7.4%
Brian Ellington +3.4%
Mike Dunn -1.1%
Chris Johnson -1.3%
Derek Dietrich -1.3%
Marcell Ozuna -6.1%
Miguel Rojas -8.4%
Cole Gillespie -10.9%
Nick Wittgren -21.7%
Adam Conley -26.4%
Giancarlo Stanton -27.8%
Christian Yelich -32.7%
Dustin McGowan -35.8%
Wei-Yin Chen -40.0%
Justin Nicolino -81.8%


Attendance: 20,037

Marlon D: 24,546
Marlins 3-2
H: Bour, Realmuto, Upton
Z: Amarista, Prado, Myers
Nico more K than Perdomo; Padres 3+GIDP

Kevin Kraczkowski: 22,950
Marlins 9-7
H: Yelich, Nicolino, Hechavarria
Z: Perdomo, Myers, Kemp
Marlins no HR; Padres score in the eighth; teams combine for 18+Ks

gustavopim: 19,456
Marlins 10-2
H: Bour, Dietrich, Ozuna
Z: Perdomo, Hechavarria, Ramirez
Nicolino 4+K; Marlins 4+LOB; Padres 2+HR

evermoresg: 18,595
Marlins 6-3
H: Bour, Suzuki, Yelich
Z: Perdomo, Realmuto, Schimpf
Marlins 2+HR; Suzuki .400+OBP; PH HR

Ichthyomancy Standings



Kevin Kraczkowski




Marlon D




Miami takes tomorrow off before returning to Marlins Park for a homestand featuring the Colorado Rockies, the Atlanta Braves, and the Chicago Cubs. First game is scheduled for 7:10PM on Friday night.