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Heroes and Zeroes: Diamondbacks 5, Marlins 3

It looked like we were getting a Jose Fernandez game that we would be talking about for a long time, then it went from wine to vinegar in 1/3 of an inning.

Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Throughout the 2016 regular season, I'm tracking each player involved in each Marlins game. Using the WPA metric (Wins Probability Added), we can order the players from the most positive impact all the way down to most negative. The top three are our "Heroes," and the bottom three rank as our "Zeroes."


Martin Prado (MIA) +17.1%

Prado batted second in the order for the Fish and manned third base. He singled in the first with nobody out and a runner on (+8.7%), hit a two-out single in the third inning (+1.2%), hit a two-out triple to right field in the fifth inning (+2.2%), then struck out with two men on for the second out of the seventh (-7.3%). Prado closed his night with his fourth hit of the game, with no outs in the ninth inning (+12.2%).

Jake Lamb (AZ) +16.2%

Lamb batted second for the Diamondbacks and also played third base. He struck out for the second out of the first (-1.6%) and the fourth (-2.0%), smacked an RBI double for a 3-2 Diamondbacks lead in the sixth (+20.4%), and struck out for a third time to open the eighth inning (-0.6%)>

JT Realmuto (MIA) +16.0%

Realmuto batted seventh for the Fish and played catcher. He grounded out for the second out of the second inning (-1.5%), jacked a solo home run with two outs in the fourth (+11.6%), grounded out to end the sixth (-0.9%), and reached on a Jake Lamb error in the eighth (+6.8%).

Almost Heroes

Derek Dietrich (MIA) +14.3%

Paul Goldschmidt (AZ) +13.4%

Michael Bourn (AZ) +10.8%

Brad Ziegler (AZ) +7.5%

Tyler Clippard (AZ) +7.1%

David Peralta (AZ) +6.4%

Ichiro Suzuki (MIA) +4.0%

Minimal Impact

Chris Herrmann (AZ) +2.9%

Nick Wittgren (MIA) +1.5%

Daniel Hudson (AZ) +1.0%

Zachary Godley (AZ) +0.9%

Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) -0.3%

Yasmani Tomas (AZ) -0.8%

Almost Zeroes

Jean Segura (AZ) -3.6%

Mike Dunn (MIA) -4.1%

Nick Ahmed (AZ) -5.5%

Rickie Weeks (AZ) -6.4%

Cole Gillespie (MIA) -7.8%

Marcell Ozuna (MIA) -8.5%

Justin Bour (MIA) -11.0%


Adeiny Hechavarria (MIA) -12.7%

Hechavarria played shortstop and batted eighth for the Marlins. He flew out to end the second (-1.0%), flew out to end the fourth (-0.9%), flew out to open the seventh (-3.4%), and forced out JT Realmuto for the second out of the eighth (-7.4%).

Christian Yelich (MIA) -28.1%

Yelich batted in the third spot for Miami out of left field. He hit an RBI groundout in the first inning (-1.0%), drew a two out walk in the third (+1.9%), and drew another two out walk in the fifth (+0.8%). Not so bad through the first half of the game, right? Anyway, he went on to ground out to end the seventh inning with two runners on (-6.5%) before grounding into a double play for the first two outs of the ninth (-23.5%).

Jose Fernandez (MIA) -30.4%

Fernandez started for the Marlins and retired each of the first 17 batters that he faced, striking out eight of them. Already 63% of the way to a perfect game, the wheels on the bus stopped going round-and-round and flew right off onto the turnpike, causing a 35-car pileup. Fernandez allowed five consecutive two-out hits. A Michael Bourn homer (-12.8%), a Jean Segura single (-2.3%), a Jake Lamb double (-20.4%), a Paul Goldschmidt single (-16.3%), and a David Peralta triple (-12.5%) were banked consecutively against Jose before he got Richie Weeks to fly out to end the carnage. The mess cost Fernandez his ninth straight win and caused his ERA to climb to a still-respectable 2.57. He got 60-of-85 pitches into the strikezone and finished with a GameScore of 54.

Best and Worst


Marlins: Martin Prado's single to right field in the ninth, moving Derek Dietrich to second with nobody out (+12.2%).

Diamondbacks: Jake Lamb's RBI-double to right field, scoring Jean Segura in the sixth inning for a 3-2 DBacks lead (+20.4%).


Marlins: Christian Yelich accounting for the first two outs of the ninth with an ill-timed double play ball (-23.5%).

Diamondbacks: Nick Ahmed striking out to open the sixth inning (-3.5%).

Last 10 Games

A.J. Ramos +39.9%
Ichiro Suzuki +39.0%
Christian Yelich +38.8%
Adam Conley +31.6%
Martin Prado +29.1%
Nick Wittgren +21.3%
J.T. Realmuto +20.9%
Adeiny Hechavarria +18.0%
Jose Fernandez +10.1%
Miguel Rojas +8.0%
Brian Ellington +2.4%
Kyle Barraclough -2.7%
Tom Koehler -4.3%
Jeff Mathis -5.3%
Chris Johnson -8.0%
Dustin McGowan -11.1%
Cole Gillespie -11.1%
Justin Bour -13.2%
Cody Hall -14.5%
David Phelps -15.7%
Derek Dietrich -20.7%
Wei-Yin Chen -22.0%
Marcell Ozuna -23.7%
Justin Nicolino -24.2%
Giancarlo Stanton -45.5%
Mike Dunn -47.6%


Attendance: 33,442

Marlon D: 29,572
Marlins 4-0
H: Fernandez, Stanton, Yelich
Z: Goldschmidt, Lamb, Dietrich
Fernandez 7+IP, 8+K, 4 or less BB; HR by C

gustavopim: 31,289
Marlins 7-2
H: Fernandez, Ramos, Yelich
Z: Stanton, Goldschmidt, Tomas
Cycle; Marlins 2HR; Fernandez QS w/2 or less BB

Ichthyomancy Standings (First Half Final)









Marlon D














Kevin Kraczkowski


John Butterworth


All numbers are reset for tomorrow's game, which is number 63 for the season. This leg of the season will also last 62 games with an eye toward first half vs. second half champion seeding for the 38-game stretch run. Head-to-Head Ichthy coming soon! Someone let Madrid3004, Shimmy_812, and jigokusabre know that the slate is fresh, and get your picks in before the scheduled first pitch at 4:10PM.