Heroes and Zeroes: Marlins 3, Pirates 2

Throughout the 2016 regular season, I'm tracking each player involved in each Marlins game. Using the WPA metric (Wins Probability Added), we can order the players from the most positive impact all the way down to most negative. The top three are our "Heroes," and the bottom three rank as our "Zeroes."

Heroes

David Phelps (MIA) +25.0%

Phelps earned the win, pitching 1.2 innings while facing only four batters. He came on in the seventh with one out, two in, and runners on first and second, then induced a Jordy Mercer double play to get out of the inning without further damage (+15.7%). The eighth inning would see him strike out the side, getting whiffs from Andrew McCutchen (+4.6%), David Freese (+3.3%), and Starling Marte (+2.4%). He got 10-of-13 pitches over the plate.

Adam Conley (MIA) +22.9%

Conley carried a no hitter into the sixth inning, and earned a no-decision despite striking out nine. He put 66-of-105 pitches over the plate and earned a GameScore of 74. He allowed only two hits and three walks for an in-game WHIP of 0.833.

Matt Joyce (PIT) +22.3%

Joyce pinch hit in the pitchers' spot in the seventh inning, and hit a two-RBI, bases loaded one-out single to tie the game at two.

Almost Heroes

Francisco Cervelli (PIT) +19.9%

Adeiny Hechavarria (MIA) +17.6%

AJ Ramos (MIA) +15.5%

Martin Prado (MIA) +12.0%

Neftali Feliz (PIT) +8.5%

Christian Yelich (MIA) +8.4%

Chris Johnson (MIA) +7.4%

Minimal Impact

Wilfredo Boscan (PIT) +2.7%

Derek Dietrich (MIA) +1.7%

David Freese (PIT) +1.3%

Miguel Rojas (MIA) 0.0%

Ichiro! Suzuki (MIA) -0.9%

Cole Gillespie (MIA) -2.1%

Marcell Ozuna (MIA) -2.8%

Almost Zeroes

Cole Figueroa (PIT) -3.0%

John Jaso (PIT) -3.2%

Jonathan Niese (PIT) -3.6%

JT Realmuto (MIA) -4.6%

Josh Harrison (PIT) -7.0%

Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) -11.2%

Andrew McCutchen (PIT) -12.8%

Starling Marte (PIT) -14.1%

Jordy Mercer (PIT) -14.3%

Kyle Barraclough (MIA) -16.7%

Zeroes

Mike Dunn (MIA) -22.3%

Dunn came on in the seventh with one out and the bases loaded, and gave up a two-RBI single to Matt Joyce before getting lifted for David Phelps.

Sean Rodriguez (PIT) -22.5%

Rodriguez batted seventh for the Bucs out of right field. He struck out to end the second, struck out with a runner on first for the second out of the fifth, struck out for a third time with two runners on base for the first out of the seventh, and struck out again in the ninth inning with a runner on first for the second out.

Tony Watson (PIT) -24.2%

Watson pitched the eighth inning for the Pirates, getting 19-of-30 pitches into the strike zone. He took the loss after hitting Derek Dietrich on the wrist with a pitch. After Miguel Rojas was called to pinch run, Adeiny Hechavarria hit what would be the eventual game-winning RBI double.

Last 10 Games

Derek Dietrich +60.5%

Jose Fernandez +54.2%

AJ Ramos +53.7%

Marcell Ozuna +38.7%

Adeiny Hechavarria +36.9%

Christian Yelich +25.8%

Miguel Rojas +24.2%

Nick Wittgren +18.6%

David Phelps +13.7%

Cole Gillespie +11.8%

Adam Conley +4.0%

Chris Johnson +3.8%

Martin Prado +3.5%

Dustin McGowan +2.6%

Giancarlo Stanton +0.2%

Kyle Barraclough -2.8%

Justin Bour -4.7%

Edwin Jackson -5.3%

Jeff Mathis -8.5%

Wei-Yin Chen -8.8%

Bryan Morris -9.3%

Tom Koehler -13.3%

Ichiro! Suzuki -19.4%

Justin Nicolino -23.1%

JT Realmuto -35.4%

Jose Urena -74.2%

Ichthyomancy

Attendance: 17,018

rsanchez: 15,000 (2)

Marlins 5-4 (2)

H: Yelich, Ozuna, McCutchen

Z: Freese, Hechavarria, Dunn

Both bullpens 3+ER; Conley & Niese ND; Marlins walk-off (2)

paolo2387: 14,000

Marlins 6-5 (2)

H: Prado, Ozuna, Stanton

Z: Johnson, Dietrich, Hechavarria

Conley ND, 5IP, 2ER, 2+K, 2+BB; Marlins hit for cycle in one inning

2qbn: 13,890

Marlins 5-3 (1)

H: Stanton, Dietrich, Marte

Z: Niese, Mercer, Realmuto

Conley QS; Dietrich HR; Stanton RBI (1)

Marlon D: 13,937

Marlins 5-4 (2)

H: Realmuto, Stanton, Ozuna

Z: McCutchen, Mercer, Prado

Outfield all get RBI; Miami Bullpen 3Ks

gustavopim: 14,589

Marlins 8-7 (2)

H: Conley, Dietrich, Stanton (1)

Z: McCutchen, Kang, Hechavarria

Marlins 2HR + 3+2b; Stanton one out-of-the-park HR; No hitter or combined no hitter for Marlins.

evermoresg: 13,788

Marlins 6-4 (1)

H: Stanton, Ozuna, Yelich

Z: Johnson, Niese, Cervelli

Stanton HR; Marlins score 3+ in an inning, SP's combined 8+K (1.5)

Ichthyomancy Standings

gustavopim 159

Shimmy_812 131

2qbn 115

Marlon D 99

evermoresg 91.5

Jigokusabre 88

paolo2387 54

Madrid3004 29.5

rsanchez1 28

Tomorrow, the Marlins and the Pirates close up their four game series. Get your picks in before the scheduled first pitch at 7:10PM.