Okay, okay, you think I’m crazy. Hech is hitting .217! How could he be better this year! Heresy!

Before you call for my head and set a lynch mob on me, let’s look at the numbers behind Hechavarria’s performance through the first month of the 2016 season, and see what they can tell us.

The thing that immediately sticks out in Adeiny’s line (apart from that awful batting average!) is an equally atrocious BABIP. On the season, Hech is hitting just .219 on balls in play. Compared to his steady BABIP numbers in 2014 and 2015 (.323 and .325 respectively) this has the look of some bad luck.

So what would Hech be hitting with a league average BABIP of .300? What about a mark closer to the .325 he’s put up over the past few years? I’ve run a sensitivity analysis below – have a look, and let’s see what his performance could be with an improved BABIP.

Just based on BABIP evidence, it looks like Hech has, if anything, improved. League-average luck on balls in play would have him around .290 while his last two years of performance would have him over .300. But there’s more to hitting than luck on balls in play! Let’s look at Hechavarria’s peripheral numbers this year as compared to last year. The third column denotes the change.

For some quick highlights, Hechavarria has seen a slight increase in his walk rate with a larger decrease in his strikeout rate. He has thus far avoided infield pop-ups altogether, and he has hit the ball harder.

Perhaps more encouragingly, Hech has decreased his out of zone swing rate AND upped his contact rate. While it is important to note that numbers can vary over the course of a season, the indicators above point to the fact that Hechavarria’s low BABIP is NOT the result of a loss of skill, but rather a string of bad luck. Furthermore, it is possible that his low BABIP is covering a slight increase in skill!

Of particular import is his increased Hard-hit%, his better overall contact rate, and his better patience (lower Out-of-zone swing rate). Hechavarria is thus far hitting the ball harder, making better contact, and swinging at better pitches. If those trends sustain over the course of the year, Hech will be a better hitter.

Though it is clear that Hechavarria’s true value lies in his defense, with some better batted-ball luck, he could easily be providing an acceptable bat. Based on the evidence above, my money is on improvement.