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Marlins vs Diamondbacks: Game 26 Thread

Fernandez hopes to find rhythm as Marlins aim to continue recent success

Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports

Jose Fernandez takes the mound tonight versus Diamondback's righty Rubby de la Rosa, the second game of a three game slate. The problem of late for the Marlin's prized righty has oddly enough been control, as he's walked 10 batters in his last three starts, going exactly six innings in each. This has contributed to a 11.8% walk rate through his 28.2 innings, a near 5% increase from his previous year's numbers at the major league level. The silver lining? His strikeout rate has actually been great, punching out 33.6% of the batters he faces to this point in the season. This places him 2nd among qualified starters in terms of K%, trailing only Thor himself, Noah Syndergaard.

Pulling some comparisons to other pitchers around the league, I would group together David Price and Jose Fernandez's seemingly rocky starts as they both have had no problem getting strikeouts while their FIPs to me signal regression towards a brighter future. On the other side of the spectrum, Matt Harvey and Adam Wainwright have been struggling in similar ways, both with strikeout rates down from their career norms and overall ineffectiveness. These are two 'higher level' pools that I often place starters in when looking at early season struggles.

An ideal start for Fernandez tonight would be no walks. Even if he gives up some solid contact or a few runs, no walks should encouraged us that he has taken a step towards finding his groove for 2016.

Pitching Matchup

Team Starter ERA FIP ZiPS Proj. ERA
ARI Rubby de la Rosa 4.18 3.86 4.37
MIA Jose Fernandez 4.48 2.29 2.79

Rubby de la Rosa has been one of the more effective pitchers on a Diamondbacks team that has struggled to get any production out of their high priced acquisitions in the offseason. I was thinking of making a chart showing just how little production they've gotten from Zach Greinke and Shelby Miller in comparison to the assets they gave up, but I'll spare any readers who have a soft spot for the Dbacks. Rubby has been stellar in his last two starts, striking out 16 batters over 13 innings, only allowing five hits and one earned run. The 27 year old righty throws hard, with a good ability to get hitters out up in the zone with his fastball that sits with an average velocity of 94.5 MPH. He'll also mix in a plus slider, a sparingly used changeup, and a two seam fastball.

I expect to see a lot of swing and miss stuff tonight between these two arms, and wouldn't be surprised if both starters creep into the double digits for strikeouts.

Today's Lineups

Phil Gosselin - 2B J.T. Realmuto - C
Jake Lamb - 3B Martin Prado - 3B
Paul Goldschmidt - 1B Christian Yelich - LF
David Peralta - CF Giancarlo Stanton - RF
Brandon Drury - RF Derek Dietrich - 1B
Yasmany Tomas - LF Marcell Ozuna - CF
Chris Herrmann - C Adeiny Hechavarria - SS
Nick Ahmed - SS Miguel Rojas - 2B
Rubby De La Rosa - RHP Jose Fernandez - RHP
Realmuto leading off for a second day in a row, No Wellington Castillo for the Diamondbacks as he's started their last four games.


  • I perused around the internet looking for some interesting stats regarding J.T. Realmuto's appearance in the leadoff spot last night and came across the name Jason Kendall. In 2007, an article posted by Baseball Reference tallied up appearances in the leadoff spot prior to that year and Jason Kendall held the top 5 spots, with his 2004 season reigning supreme with 119 individual games. Having a lot of stock in Pirates players this year for fantasy baseball purposes, John Jaso came to mind, as Clint Hurdle's lineup is heavily viewed as 'new school'. Jaso has 89 ABs, or about 23 of his 24 games started this year. That would put him in the 7th spot on the list from the year 2007, and on a good pace to top Kendall's mark. The Baseball Reference article can be viewed here. Anybody else come to mind with regards to catchers batting leadoff in the years post-2007?
  • On the betting side of things, Bovada has the 'moneyline' in favor of the Marlins at -185. The total runs over/under is currently at an even 7, with the over being the favorite at -125. I don't encourage betting on baseball through the season to any extent, as this sport is extremely volatile on a day-to-day basis from my experience, but I always like looking at what books like Bovada and Vegas are predicting for outcomes of games I'm watching.

Prediction: Marlins defeat Diamondbacks 3-1