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Heroes and Zeroes: Marlins 3, Pirates 1

Jose Fernandez went seven innings and allowed just three baserunners for his seventh straight win.

Pittsburgh Pirates v Miami Marlins Photo by Eric Espada/Getty Images

Throughout the 2016 regular season, I'm tracking each player involved in each Marlins game. Using the WPA metric (Wins Probability Added), we can order the players from the most positive impact all the way down to most negative. The top three are our "Heroes," and the bottom three rank as our "Zeroes."


Jose Fernandez (MIA) +34.0%

Fernandez did what we all thought he would (see ichthy, below). He won his seventh straight start to push his record to 8-2 on the season, allowing only three hits (with zero walks) with a GameScore of 77. He struck out six Bucs and allowed no runs at all, leaving after the seventh with a three run lead. He faced 22 batters and threw a total of 88 pitches, getting 62 over the plate.

Christian Yelich (MIA) +25.3%

Yelich batted third in the order for the Marlins out of left field. He drew a walk in his first plate appearance, with one out and a man on first in the opening inning (+3.6%). He struck out with two runners in scoring position for the first out of the third inning (-5.8%), then singled into right field to open the sixth (+5.1%). His inclusion in the listing of Heroes was due mostly to his actions in the seventh inning, when he lined a single to right field, scoring Ichiro! Suzuki for Miami's first run of the game and putting JT Realmuto on third base (+22.4%). Later in the inning, took third base on a wild pitch (+5.6%) and then scored Miami's final run of the game on a Justin Bour groundout.

JT Realmuto (MIA) +23.8%

Realmuto batted second and caught for the Fish, and started the night with a one-out single to left field (+2.4%). He hit a double to left with nobody out and a man on first in the third inning (+11.7%), then struck out to end the fifth (-1.4%). He singled (+5.6%) and scored in the seventh.

Almost Heroes

Andrew McCutchen (PIT) +13.7%

David Phelps (MIA) +3.9%

Ichiro! Suzuki (MIA) +3.8%

Josh Harrison (PIT) +3.7%

Matt Joyce (PIT) +3.6%

AJ Ramos (MIA) +3.0%

Derek Dietrich (MIA) +2.9%

Minimal Impact

AJ Schugel (PIT) +0.6%

John Jaso (PIT) +0.1%

Martin Prado (MIA) 0.0%

Miguel Rojas (MIA) -0.8%

Jared Hughes (PIT) -1.1%

Almost Zeroes

Marcell Ozuna (MIA) -3.7%

Gerrit Cole (PIT) -3.7%

Francisco Cervelli (PIT) -4.4%

Jordy Mercer (PIT) -8.7%

Chris Johnson (MIA) -9.3%

Starling Marte (PIT) -14.1%

Adeiny Hechavarria (MIA) -15.0%


Jung Ho Kang (PIT) -15.0%

Kang batted cleanup and played third base for the Pirates. He grounded back to Fernandez to open the second inning (-2.3%), then struck out looking to end the fourth (-1.3%). He ended the seventh inning by again hitting a comebacker to Fernandez (-1.9%) and closed his night by striking out with runners on the corners for the second out of the ninth inning (-9.5%).

Justin Bour (MIA) -18.0%

Bour batted fifth and played first base for the Marlins. He flew out with two runners in scoring position to end the first inning (-5.7%), struck out with two runners in scoring position to end the third (-6.5%), and fouled out with two runners on base for the first out of the sixth (-7.3%). He hit an RBI groundout with runners on the corners in the seventh (+1.6%) for a small amount of redemption.

Gregory Polanco (PIT) -24.6%

Polanco batted third out of right field for the Pirates. He struck out to end the first (-1.0%), flew out for the second out of the fourth (-1.9%), and grounded out for the first two outs of the seventh (-12.5%). With no outs and the bases loaded in the ninth, he scored Matt Joyce on a sacrifice fly (-9.1%) for Pittsburgh's only run of the game.

Last 10 Games

Derek Dietrich +56.1%

Jose Fernandez +54.2%

AJ Ramos +38.2%

Marcell Ozuna +36.1%

Miguel Rojas +24.2%

Nick Wittgren +18.6%

Christian Yelich +17.4%

Giancarlo Stanton +14.5%

Kyle Barraclough +13.9%

Cole Gillespie +13.5%

Adeiny Hechavarria +13.5%

Dustin McGowan +1.6%

Chris Johnson -2.0%

Edwin Jackson -4.4%

Justin Bour -7.1%

Bryan Morris -8.7%

Wei-Yin Chen -8.8%

Jeff Mathis -10.7%

David Phelps -11.3%

Tom Koehler -13.3%

Ichiro! Suzuki -18.4%

Martin Prado -19.3%

Justin Nicolino -23.1%

JT Realmuto -32.2%

Adam Conley -43.0%

Jose Urena -74.2%


Attendance: 10,637

paolo2387: 13,000

Marlins 6-3 (1)

H: Fernandez, Suzuki, Yelich (2)

Z: Hechavarria, Bour, Realmuto

Jose QS, 6+IP, 5+K’s , 3+BB’s 2+ full counts (*you got everything but the walks!); Ramos SV; Marlins replay challenge win (2)

rsanchez1: 9,200

Marlins 2-1 (1)

H: Fernandez, Ozuna, Yelich (2)

Z: Hechavarria, Dietrich, Freese

Fernandez 7IP + 1ER; Cole 7IP + 2ER; Ozuna 1RBI + Yelich 1RBI

Marlon D: 11,587 (2)

Marlins 4-1 (1)

H: Fernandez, Ozuna, Dietrich (1)

Z: Realmuto, Freese, Harrison

Fernandez 7+ IP; Fernandez 7+ K’s w/ 5 or less walks; Ozuna 2+RBI (1)

2qbn: 14,180

Marlins 3-1 (3)

H: Fernandez, Yelich, Bour (2)

Z: Jaso, Mercer, Polanco (1)

Yelich RBI+R; Bour HR; Fernandez QS (3)

gustavopim: 12,290

Marlins 10-2 (1)

H: Fernandez, Yelich, Cole (2)

Z: Marte, Polanco, Freese (1)

Fernandez CG; Marlins 2+HR; all starting Marlins get a hit

evermoresg: 15,279

Marlins 5-3 (2)

H: Fernandez, Cole, Ozuna (1)

Z: Hechavarria, Cervelli, Cole

Fernandez QS; SP 14+K combined; Ozuna .400+OBP (1)

Ichthyomancy Standings

gustavopim 156

Shimmy_812 131

2qbn 113

Marlon D 97

evermoresg 89

Jigokusabre 88

paolo2387 52

Madrid3004 29.5

rsanchez1 22

With one game apiece, these two will play the third of their four game series tomorrow night at Marlins Park at 7:10PM. Get your picks in before the first pitch, and GO FISH.