With Giancarlo Stanton and the Miami Marlins starting up another series with the Washington Nationals, we will conclude our 2016 Giancarlo Stanton Projection Project! Yesterday, we asked you, the readers, to project Stanton's season from 5/20/2016 on to the rest of the season, and 53 total readers have voted. The results have been very interesting.
|Stanton, Batting Avg||% Voted|
These are the top results for Stanton's projected batting average going forward. It should not surprise anyone that, among the intelligent readership of Fish Stripes, most guessed a batting average close to his overall career batting line. The presumption here is that most fans believe that, while this most recent slump is disappointing, it is unlikely to be due to a true talent loss of ability or it is something that is very likely to be adjusted to quickly.
Of course, batting average is definitely the least important thing noted in our poll, so let's look at the other polling data. Here's the on-base percentage polling.
|Stanton, OBP||% Voted|
There was less agreement or certainty around the likely on-base percentages for Stanton. This likely reflects that fans are not certain how well Stanton will do in terms of walks going forward, even if they do feel that generally his batting average will approach his career numbers. Stanton owns a career 12 percent walk rate, but if pitchers are attacking him in the strike zone and he has a harder time making contact (not the case inside the zone so much this season), it may lead to fewer walks. At the same time, Stanton owns a 14.2 percent walk rate this year with only one intentional free pass.
|Stanton, SLG||% Voted|
This part of the survey should have been better spread in order to represent that slugging percentage has a wider spread than OBP and batting average. Stanton's career slugging percentage is at .545, so it does not surprise me that a good number of Marlins fans think he'll slug greater than .560, which in the calculations will represent a .580 mark. This may have skewed some of the voting and certainly could have made the accuracy of our estimates worse. The .490 votes were a bit of an oddity as well.
Let's take a look at how these average out! If we take the less-than or greater-than votes as twenty points below or above the cutoff given, we can average out a batting line that 53 of our Fish Stripes readers are projecting for Stanton. You readers guessed an average batting line of .264/.350/.532! This is very similar to two players since 2013 who can give us an approximate wOBA.
These batting lines have been around 40 percent better than league average. Based on our projection, Stanton is perhaps seven percent worse than he has been from 2013 to 2016, when he was around the seventh-best hitter in baseball. Of the two players listed, Davis certainly matches up more as the style of player Stanton has been, though Stanton has had some more consistently high levels of play than Davis, who had one down season and one MVP-caliber year within this time period.
So Marlins fans think that Stanton is worth about a .377 wOBA, maybe a bit better or maybe a bit worse. How does that compare to his expected batting line by projection systems?
|Stanton, 2016 Proj||AVG||OBP||SLG||wOBA|
The crowd and PECOTA are most in agreement. ZiPS and Steamer had slightly higher guesses. But starting tonight, we'll track Stanton until the end of the season and see which system was closest!