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Marlins vs. Brewers: Game 33 Thread

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Fish send Chen to mound in rubber match versus Brew Crew

Rob Foldy/Getty Images

Marlins faithful are hoping hot bats can back Wei-Yin Chen as he takes the mound for his 7th start of the year. Opposing him will be the Brewer's righty Chase Anderson as Milwaukee finishes up a seven-game road trip.

Coming into this game the Marlins have cooled off slightly, going 6-4 in their last 10 games, after a stretch that saw them win 11 of 13 games over the last two weeks.

Team Starter ERA FIP ZIPS Projected ERA
MIL Chase Anderson 6.44 6.30 4.69
MIA Wei-Yin Chen 4.66 4.13 3.45

Chen hasn't been too impressive in his first few starts with the Marlins ball club, but he has given them an ample amount of innings. He has not gone less than five innings in any of his outings, and has eclipsed 6.1 in five of his seven. His changeup, which he throws just over 13% of the time, has been his most effective pitch with a Pitch Fx value of 3.56 (0 is average), good for 11th best in the majors among qualified starters. Expect the Marlin's defense to be active tonight as Chen yields a contact rate of 85%, and has only generated 5.89 K/9 this season, down a bit from his 2015 campaign with the Orioles.

Anderson on the other hand saw a slight uptick in velocity early in the season but has not performed since. In his first two starts of the season, he had a 9/2 K:BB ratio and had a WHIP just under 1.00. In his four starts since, he hasn't allowed less than four earned runs or been able to surpass 5 innings pitched. The biggest change from 2015 to 2016 for Anderson has been the use of a cutter, bringing his four-seam fastball usage below 50% for the first time in his career.

Today's Lineups

MILWAUKEE BREWERS MIAMI MARLINS
Domingo Santana - RF Derek Dietrich - 2B
Jonathan Villar - SS Martin Prado - 3B
Ryan Braun - LF Christian Yelich - LF
Jonathan Lucroy - C Giancarlo Stanton - RF
Chris Carter - 1B Justin Bour - 1B
Aaron Hill - 2B Marcell Ozuna - CF
Hernan Perez - 3B Adeiny Hechavarria - SS
Alex Presley - CF Jeff Mathis - C
Chase Anderson - RHP Wei-Yin Chen - LHP

Notes

  • Chris Towers of CBS Sports wrote a great article about the streaking Marcell Ozuna, who is batting .444 in the month of May with 3 HRs. While no revelations were made, he got the chance to talk to Bonds about if anything in Ozuna's approach has changed, leading to the uptick in Ozuna's fly balls, to which Towers got no real answer. I'm interested to see if Ozuna can keep this up in tonights game against a very hittable pitcher in Chase Anderson.
  • A.J. Ramos had an interesting outing in the first game of this series, as he was pulled after three walks over 2/3 of an inning in favor of Bryan Morris. It had been a few days since Ramos last pitched, but with three squeaky clean save conversions in his three prior appearances, I doubt Mattingly will have any hesitation going to him tonight if a save chance arises tonight.
  • In the betting universe, the moneyline is currently -180 to the Marlins per Vegas Insider, with the over/under for runs scored at 8.5. I like the runs to be over 8.5, more like 10-11 in my eyes as I do not have too much confidence in Chase Anderson holding back a good lineup over the last few days.
  • With regards to Draftkings, Chen is an interesting play at $7,800, but for an extra $200 I would much rather go with Jared Eickhoff of the Phillies in Atlanta. As far as batters go, I like Ozuna and Bour at $3,900 and $3,400 respectively on the Marlins side, while Braun at $4,800 stands out to me as he is batting .361 versus lefties this year with 4 HR.
Bold Prediction: Marlins defeat Brewers 7 - 4