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Heroes And Zeroes: Marlins 5, Padres 2

Solid starting pitching and late inning heroics spelled disappointment, then triumph for the Marlins.

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Heroes and Zeroes is a series of articles where I use the Wins Probability Added (WPA) metric at to analyze the biggest contributors to the results of each game. It takes into account pitching, hitting, and some baserunning. I add a modifier to account for fielding errors. The top three players are the Heroes, and the bottom three are the Zeroes.


Alexi Amarista (SD) .441

Amarista came into the contest in an 0-for-24 slump. He batted eighth for the Padres, and continued the slump into the second inning by grounding out to first (-1.5%). In the fifth, he hit a leadoff triple to center (+11.1%), but was stranded on two Jose Fernandez strikeouts and a Will Venable flyout. He grounded out with the bases empty for the second out of the seventh (-2.1%), then closed his night at the plate with a one-out, one-on, game-tying two run homer in the top of the ninth (+36.6%).

Jose Fernandez (MIA) .323

Fernandez, in just his sixth start since returning from Tommy John surgery, pitched six full innings. For a guy who didn't have his "best stuff," his stuff was pretty darn good. He allowed four hits and no runs, walking two and striking out 10 Padres. For those counting, that leaves his K/9 at a robust 11.1, and his WHIP at 1.026 since returning.

Adeiny Hechavarria (MIA) .297

Our third hero got to live a moment that kids all over the world dream of with his one out, bottom-of-the-ninth game-winning three-run homer. (+30.0%). Batting eighth, he led off the second with a groundout (-1.5%), then led off the fifth with a single up the middle (+2.1%). He flew out to center to open the seventh (-0.9%).

Almost Heroes

Mike Dunn (MIA) .145

Martin Prado (MIA) .106

Bryan Morris (MIA) .065

Miguel Rojas (MIA) .057

Yangervis Solarte (SD) .054

Ichiro Suzuki (MIA) .032

Matt Kemp (SD) .021

Yonder Alonso (SD) .021

Minimal Impact

Mark Rzepczynski (SD) .020

Kevin Quackenbush (SD) .012

Derek Dietrich (MIA) -.003

Casey McGehee (MIA) -.007

Christian Yelich (MIA) -.009

Clint Barmes (SD) -.012

Cole Gillespie (MIA) -.012

Almost Zeroes

Brett Wallace (SD) -.041

Jeff Mathis (MIA) -.053

Justin Bour (MIA) -.060

Derek Norris (SD) -.071

Carter Capps (MIA) -.076

James Shields (SD) -.088

Jedd Gyorko (SD) -.140

Justin Upton (SD) -.167


Will Venable (SD) -.178

Venable led off the game with Jose Fernandez' first strikeout (-2.2%). He flew out to lead off the third (-2.4%), flew out with a man on third and one out in the fifth (-6.8%), then struck out to Carter Capps to lead off the eighth (-3.4%) and to AJ Ramos to end the Padres' ninth (-3.1%).

AJ Ramos (MIA) -.306

Ramos came on to save the win for Jose Fernandez with a 2-0 lead. He allowed Derek Norris a leadoff single (-7.3%), then struck out Jedd Gyorko (+6.1%). It was Alexi Amarista's two-run shot (-36.6%) that landed him with the second Zero of the night. After that, he got Brett Wallace to ground out (+4.1%) and struck out Will Venable (+3.1%).

Brent Maurer (SD) -.359

Maurer entered the game to pitch the bottom of the ninth, tied 2-2. He walked Martin Prado (-7.4%), then got the first out on a Cole Gillespie sacrifice (+7.5%). After Gillespie stole second (-6.4%) and light-hitting Jeff Mathis drew a nine-pitch walk (-0.9%), Adeiny Hechavarria parked one in the home-run sculpture in center field for a walk-off three-run home run (-30.0%).

Best and Worst

The worst of the night for the Padres was Justin Upton's fourth strikeout, to Mike Dunn with one out and runners on first and second in the eighth inning (-7.8%). It was only the third time in the last 28 years that a batter has struck out four times on 12 pitches.

Miami's worst play was Cole Gillespie's failed sacrifice with no out and one on in the ninth (-7.5%). It was very nearly a double play ball, but Gillespie erased all ill will by stealing second.

Alexi Amarista's home run (+36.6%) actually had a greater chance at affecting the outcome than did the walkoff home run by Hechavarria (+30.0%). This is due to the fact that when Hechavarria came to the plate, the Marlins had a 70% chance of winning the game, and only 30% was available to "credit" him out.