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Heroes And Zeroes: Marlins 6, Cardinals 4

Two home runs from Jason Heyward weren't enough to top the Marlins. Miami salvages one in three in St. Louis.

Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports

Heroes and Zeroes is a series of articles where I use the Wins Probability Added (WPA) metric available at (source here) to give credit where credit is due. The players are ranked based on their weighted impact on the overall outcome of the game. The top three are your "Heroes," the bottom three, "Zeroes."


Jason Heyward (STL) .272

Heyward, St. Louis' number three hitter, hit a solo home run with two outs in the first to tie the game at one for the Cards (+11.4%). With one out and a man on first in the third, he reprised his performance from the first with his second out-of-the-park hit on the day (+21.2%) for a 3-1 St. Louis lead. He then flew out to center to end the fifth (-1.5%) and grounded out to second to open the eighth (-3.9%).

Derek Dietrich (MIA) .263

Miami's counterpart to Heyward in the batting order started his day by looking at a questionable strike three for the second out of the first with a man on second base (-3.4%). He flew out to shortstop to end Miami's third inning (-1.1%). His inclusion on this list is largely due to his bases loaded three-run triple with one out in the fifth (+31.7%) which gave the Marlins the lead for good. After singling to center with one out in the seventh (+1.4%), he was quickly caught stealing second (-2.3%) on a failed pickoff attempt by former Marlin Randy Choate.

Jeff Mathis (MIA) .151

Mathis, normally Miami's light-hitting backup catcher, batted eighth for the Marlins and hit a two-out single to right field in the second inning (+1.3%). He took second on a balk (+1.1%) before getting stranded when David Phelps struck out. With nobody out and a runner on first in the fifth, he hit a tailor made double-play ball to Cardinals second baseman Kolten Wong. Wong mishandled the pill, which led to Adeiny Hechavarria making it safely to third and Mathis getting to first (+12.4%). He drew a one-out walk with a man on third in the sixth (+1.5%), then grounded out with a man on first to end Miami's eighth (-1.1%).

Almost Heroes

Brian Ellington (MIA) .126

Adeiny Hechavarria (MIA) .103

Dee Gordon (MIA) .090

AJ Ramos (MIA) .078

Casey McGehee (MIA) .074

Chris Narveson (MIA) .069

Mike Dunn (MIA) .053

Matt Carpenter (STL) .042

Bryan Morris (MIA) .039

Minimal Impact

Seth Maness (STL) .023

Justin Bour (MIA) .021

Brandon Moss (STL) .021

Randy Choate (STL) .016

Jonathan Broxton (STL) .014

Stephen Piscotty (STL) -.004

Ichiro Suzuki (MIA) -.006

Jhonny Peralta (STL) -.025

Almost Zeroes

Randal Grichuk (STL) -.030

Pete Kozma (STL) -.030

Peter Bourjos (STL) -.030

Cole Gillespie (MIA) -.044

Yadier Molina (STL) -.064

Marcell Ozuna (MIA) -.074

Carlos Villanueva (STL) -.079

Mark Reynolds (STL) -.085

Kolten Wong (STL) -.090


Miguel Rojas (MIA) -.176

Instead of his normal role as a bench option, Rojas got the start for the Marlins at third base. He had been nine-for-20 in his last 15 appearances. He batted second for Miami, and lined out to the pitcher with Dee Gordon on second base for the first out of the game (-4.2%). He grounded out to second for the second out of the third (-1.7%), struck out with the bases loaded and noone out in the fifth (-10.1%), then grounded out to shortstop to start the seventh (-1.3%) and again to end Miami's ninth (-0.3%).

David Phelps (MIA) -.267

Phelps, normally one of Miami's more viable starting options on the hill, walked one and allowed four hits in just 2.1 innings. This includes both of Jason Heyward's home runs. He did register four of his seven outs by way of strike three.

Carlos Martinez (STL) -.450

Martinez looked mostly good, only allowing a single earned run on seven hits and striking out a batter per inning over five. His downfall was Derek Dietrich's three run triple in the fifth. All three of the runs were unearned, due to Kolten Wong's uncharacteristic shaky fielding at second base. It was Wong's second error in his last 50 games.

Catch tomorrow's matchup live from Milwaukee as the Marlins open a three game series with the Brewers.