Heroes And Zeroes: Padres 8, Marlins 3

Heroes and Zeroes is a series where I break down the box score to show the best and worst of every game. Using the Wins Probability Added (WPA) metric available at www.fangraphs.com, I rank the players from highest positive impact to highest negative impact. The top three on the list are the "Heroes," the bottom three, "Zeroes."

Heroes

Derek Dietrich (MIA) .396

Dietrich, batting sixth for the Fish, didn't really do anything special for most of the game. He grounded out to lead off the second (-1.5%), flew out to center for the second out of the fourth (-2.0%), then struck out swinging with a man on second to end the sixth (-6.0%). Then, with two out and the bases empty, down by one in the bottom of the ninth, he crushed a solo shot to send the game into extra innings (+49.0%).

Ian Kennedy (SD) .253

Kennedy's job was basically to allow less runs than the other guy, which he did very well. He allowed two runs (both earned, both off Christian Yelich's first inning round-tripper) and pitched seven full innings. He walked two, allowed four hits, and struck out five Marlins. He also hit a double off David Phelps for the second consecutive game against him (+2.2%), going one-for-three from the plate and scoring a run.

Jedd Gyorko (SD) .204

Gyorko, San Diego's seventh batter in the order, singled Derek Norris from first to third with two out in the second (+2.7%). With runners on first and second with one out in the fourth, he hit an RBI single to score Yonder Alonso (+16.8%) and tie the score at two. He led off the seventh by getting on base via HBP courtesy of Brad Hand (+3.6%), struck out swinging to lead off the 10th (-5.6%), then hit a bases-loaded, one-out, two-RBI single to left in the top of the 11th to make the score 7-3 (+3.0%).

Almost Heroes

Christian Yelich (MIA) .184

Yonder Alonso (SD) .18

Will Venable (SD) .153

Joaquin Benoit (SD) .133

Brandon Maurer (SD) .128

Brad Hand (MIA) .101

Derek Norris (SD) .094

Carter Capps (MIA) .046

Minimal Impact

Mike Dunn (MIA) .033

Kevin Quackenbush (SD) .006

Yangervis Solarte (SD) .004

Brett Wallace (SD) .011

Adeiny Hechavarria (MIA) -.008

Donovan Solano (MIA) -.023

Melvin Upton (SD) -.031

Cole Gillespie (MIA) -.041

Justin Upton (SD) -.059

Almost Zeroes

JT Realmuto (MIA) -.077

Andre Rienzo (SD) -.086

Dee Gordon (MIA) -.086

Matt Kemp (SD) -.119

Martin Prado (MIA) -.127

Alexi Amarista (SD) -.132

Ichiro Suzuki (MIA) -.159

Justin Bour (MIA) -.162

Zeroes

David Phelps (MIA) -.211

As has been the case in far too many games this season, Miami's downfall wasn't in bad pitching, but in not quite enough timely hitting. Phelps allowed three earned runs in five innings, on seven hits and a walk. He struck out two and went 0-for-two from the plate.

AJ Ramos (MIA) -.280

Surprisingly, Ramos only had the second most negative impact by a supposed closer on the probable outcome of the game. He started by pitching a perfect 10th inning (+12.8%), striking out two Padres before things went bad. He opened the 11th by letting Will Venable single to right (-8.1%), then struck out Yangervis Solarte (+7.9%). Venable took second (stolen base) and third (error on JT Realmuto) before Ramos walked Matt Kemp (-1.2%), Justin Upton (-2.9%), and finally Yonder Alonso (-18.9%) with the bases loaded.

Craig Kimbrel (SD) -.316

Kimbrel came on for a save with a one-run lead in the bottom of the ninth, and got two-thirds of the way there by inducing a Justin Bour groundout (+8.3%) and striking out Martin Prado (+5.9%). He gave up the lead on a 1-1 pitch which Derek Dietrich pummeled to tie the score at three for Miami (-49.0%), then preserved the tie by getting JT Realmuto to ground out (+3.2%).

Best and Worst

San Diego's worst play of the game was Yangervis Solarte's no-out one-on strikeout in the top of the 11th (-7.9%).

Miami's most negative offensive play was Justin Bour leading off the ninth, down by a 3-2 score, with an infield groundout (-8.3%).

San Diego's best moment was AJ Ramos' third consecutive walk, the bases loaded one with one out in the 11th, to Yonder Alonso (+18.9).

The single play with the highest probability of changing the outcome of the game, for either team, was Derek Dietrich's long home run with two outs in the bottom of the ninth (+49.0%). I only wish Prado had walked and not struck out.

Tonight at 7:10PM, the Marlins host round two of the three game series against the Padres.