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Heroes and Zeroes: Nationals 7, Marlins 2

Tom Koehler's bane continues to be the new National League home run leader, Bryce Harper.

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Heroes and Zeroes is a series of articles where I use to rank every player's contribution to the result of a given matchup. The conventional Wins Probability Added (WPA) metric measures hitting, pitching, and some baserunning. I add a component to account for fielding errors.


Bryce Harper (WAS) .369

Harper, batting cleanup, struck out on a full count from Tom Koehler with runners on first and second for the second out of the opening inning (-4.4%). He singled to left to open the fourth (+4.8%), later scoring to tie the score at one. With two out and runners on the corners on the fifth, he hit a three run homer off Koehler (+33.3%). He added a solo shot off Sam Dyson to open the eighth to make the score 6-2 (+3.1%).

Ian Desmond (WAS) .159

Desmond batted sixth for the visitors, and started his night by grounding out to open the second (-2.3%). He tripled in Bryce Harper with one out in the fourth (+19.3%), then flew out to open the sixth (-0.9%) and grounded out for the second out of the eighth (-0.2%).

Ichiro! Suzuki (MIA) .114

Ichiro, batting seventh for the home team, began with a two-out RBI double (his 2,900th major league hit) in the second to open the scoring (+12.8%). He singled in the fourth inning with two out and a man on first (+2.7%), then got thrown out trying to go from first to third on an Adeiny Hechavarria RBI single for the final out of the inning. He opened the seventh with a ground out (-2.5%) and struck out with men on second and third for the second out of the ninth inning (-1.6%).

Almost Heroes

Justin Bour (MIA) .064

Casey Janssen (WAS) .048)

Jayson Werth (WAS) .046

Adeiny Hecharvarria (MIA) .043

Michael A Taylor (WAS) .030

Minimal Impact

Casey McGehee (MIA) .016

Drew Storen (WAS) .012

Tanner Roark (WAS) .006

Anthony Rendon (WAS) .005

Dan Uggla (WAS) .001

Andre Rienzo (MIA) .001

Jose Lobaton (WAS) -.003

Tyler Moore (WAS) -.008

Cole Gillespie (MIA) -.008

Martin Prado (MIA) -.017

Almost Zeroes

Doug Fister (WAS) -.027

Sam Dyson (MIA) -.027

Yunel Escobar (WAS) -.046

Derek Dietrich (MIA) -.047

Christian Yelich (MIA) -.056

Dee Gordon (MIA) -.057


Ryan Zimmerman (WAS) -.094

Zimmerman batted fifth for the Nats, lining out to second with two men on to close the first (-4.2%). He flew out to center with a man on first and nobody out in the fourth (-4.4%), struck out swinging to end the fifth (-0.5%), and struck out again for the first out of the eighth (-0.3%).

JT Realmuto (MIA) -.101

Realmuto, batting fifth for just the eighth time this season, flew out for the second out of the second (-1.6%). He dropped a foul pop up in the third inning (0.0%), struck out with nobody out and a man on first in the fourth (-4.6%), flew out with a man on first and one out in the sixth (-3.1%), and flew out with a man on first for the first out of the ninth inning (-0.6%).

Tom Koehler (MIA) -.444

Koehler wasn't really that bad, allowing six hits and a walk over six full innings. He struck out four, but allowed five earned runs. I'd say that's pretty much what proved to be the difference last night.

Best and Worst

The worst single event for the Marlins was JT Realmuto's strikeout with a man on first in the fourth (-4.6%).

The worst thing the Nationals endured was Ryan Zimmerman's fly out in his half of that same inning, with no outs and one on (-4.4%).

Miami's best moment was Ichiro's RBI double to left field in the second inning (+12.8%).

Washington's top play, of course, was Bryce Harper's two-out, three-run, eventual game winning blast in the fifth inning (+33.3%).

Tune in today for an early game, as the Marlins try to win the series at home with a 12:10 start time.