Heroes and Zeroes: Marlins 4, Nationals 1

Heroes and Zeroes is a series of articles where I break down the boxscore with the help of www.fangraphs.com to identify the real reasons why a given game turns out a certain way. Using the Wins Expectancy Added (WPA) metric, I rank the players from highest positive impact to highest negative impact. The conventional WPA metric measures hitting, pitching, and basestealing. I add a fielding component to the equation so that pitchers aren't unduly penalized for a left fielder losing a ball in the sun.

Heroes

Jose Fernandez (MIA) .141

Fernandez improved to 4-0 on the season despite clearly not having his best stuff. He also can now boast a 15-0 home record in 19 starts at Marlins Park. He walked a career-high tying four batters, striking out five and going a full six innings. He allowed three singles and a double, along with one earned run on a sacrifice fly.

Martin Prado (MIA) .134

Prado singled to center with the bases empty and one out in the first inning (+2.4%). He led off the fourth inning with a single to center (+5.0%), but was erased on a Casey McGehee inning ending double play. In the sixth, he laced a single to left with nobody out, scoring Dee Gordon to take a 2-1 lead with the eventual game-winning RBI. He drew a one-out intentional walk with a man on second (+0.5%) in the seventh inning to complete his statline - on base four times in four tries.

Dee Gordon (MIA) .117

Gordon didn't take long to get back to business after two weeks on the DL, singling Jordan Zimmerman's first pitch to left field (+3.6%) but promptly erasing himself on an ill-conceived base-stealing attempt (-5.7%). He grounded into a 1-3 inning ending out in the third (-1.2%). In the sixth inning, he led off with a triple (+15.5%), scoring on Martin Prado's single a moment later, then nearly beat out a sacrifice bunt attempt with nobody out in the seventh. He was called safe initially, but on review was called out (-0.5%). He did, however, succeed in moving pinch hitter Cole Gillespie to second on the play.

Almost Heroes

Ryan Zimmerman (WAS) .098

Ichiro Suzuki (MIA) .095

AJ Rendon (WAS) .075

Christian Yelich (MIA) .072

C Robinson (WAS) .069

Bryan Morris (MIA) .065

Carter Capps (MIA) .037

JT Realmuto (MIA) .036

AJ Ramos (MIA) .029

Minimal Impact

Aaron Barrett (WAS) .018

Cole Gillespie (MIA) .011

Felipe Rivero (WAS) .005

Justin Bour (MIA) .002

Bryce Harper (WAS) -.001

Michael A Taylor (WAS) -.006

Almost Zeroes

Tyler Moore (WAS) -.021

Adeiny Hechavarria (MIA) -.038

Derek Dietrich (MIA) -.055

Sammy Solis (WAS) -.059

Wilson Ramos (WAS) -.069

Yuniel Escobar (WAS) -.131

Jayson Werth (WAS) -.140

Zeroes

Ian Desmond (WAS) -.141

Desmond kicks off our daily hall-of-shame with a night only slightly worse than Jayson Werth's. He started by striking out for the first out of the second inning with runners on second and third (-5.7%), then struck out with a man on first for the second out of the fourth inning (-2.7%), repeating the situation with another strikeout in the sixth (-4.1%). He earned the Golden Sombrero with a man on first to end the eighth, striking out on three pitches to Carter Capps.

Casey McGehee (MIA) -.148

McGehee grounded out with a man on second to end the first (-3.2%), then was accountable for the last two outs of the fourth, grounding into a double play to erase Martin Prado (-6.8%). In the sixth inning, with nobody out and men on second and third, he grounded out for the third time (-4.2%), then with one out and men on first and second in the seventh, he grounded out for a fourth time (-0.6%), at least moving the runners to second and third in the process.

Jordan Zimmermann (WAS) -.197

Zimmermann had the Marlins well in hand through the first four innings, limiting the Fish to three hits. He was also the benefit of poor baserunning (Dee Gordon's caught stealing) and poor situational hitting (Casey McGehee's double play) to limit Miami's baserunners. He would lose the contest by allowing three earned runs on five hits between the fifth and sixth innings. He struck out two on the night and intentionally walked two batters.

Best and Worst

The worst single-event of the night for the Nationals was Yuniel Escobar's bases-loaded game-ending double play (-15.7%), courtesy of AJ Ramos.

Miami's worst moment was the aforementioned Casey McGehee inning ending double play in the fourth.

The event which most contributed to Miami's win was Dee Gordon's leadoff triple in the sixth inning (+15.5%).

Washington's most likely path to victory would have followed Ryan Zimmerman's no-out double to left, which moved Bryce Harper from first to third in the second inning (+11.3%).

Tonight at 7:10 PM EST, the Marlins again square off against the Nationals. Tom Koehler will put up his stellar home stats (4-1, 1.68 ERA) against the suddenly slumping Doug Fister (5.24 ERA over his last 10 games).