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Heroes And Zeroes: Padres 3, Marlins 1

The big winner on the night was a middle reliever for the bad guys. Also, Derek Dietrich goes deep.

Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Heroes and Zeroes is a series of articles where I use the Wins Probability Added (WPA) metric as a starting point in measuring each players weighted performance in each game. The simple metric measures pitching, hitting, and some baserunning. I make adjustments to take into consideration fielding, including the difficulty on certain plays and errors, as well as baserunning errors.


Brandon Maurer (SD) .238

Maurer relieved starting pitcher Ian Kennedy with a one run lead, a fast runner on third, and nobody out in the top of the seventh inning. He earned the top slot based on the extremely high leverage situation, which would see him strand JT Realmuto on third base with an Adeiny Hechavarria groundout, a Casey McGehee fly out to shallow center, and a Cole Gillespie ground out.

Derek Dietrich (MIA) .122

Dietrich batted sixth for the Marlins. He drew a walk in the second inning (+4.5%), struck out with a man on first to end the fourth (-2.2%), led off the seventh with a home run off Ian Kennedy (+12.3%), and struck out to open the ninth (-2.7%).

Will Venable (SD) .102

Venable led off for the Padres, and opened the bottom half of the first inning by grounding out back to counterpart Dan Phelps (-2.0%). With two out and a man on second in the second inning, he hit an RBI single to make the score 2-0 (+10.3) with the eventual game winning run. He struck out swinging to end the fourth (-1.1%). He was replaced in the seventh inning by Melvin Upton.

Almost Heroes

JT Realmuto (MIA) .100

Martin Prado (MIA) .079

Matt Kemp (SD) .066

Melvin Upton (SD) .054

Craig Kimbrel (SD) .043

Clint Barmes (SD) .040

Joaquin Benoit (SD) .033

Justin Upton (SD) .032

Yangervis Solarte (SD) .032

Minimal Impact

Carter Capps (MIA) .018

Yonder Alonso (SD) .013

Abraham Almonte (SD) .001

Jedd Gyorko (SD) -.001

Almost Zeroes

Ichiro Suzuki (MIA) -.027

Derek Norris (SD) -.028

Mike Dunn (MIA) -.046

Sam Dyson (MIA) -.048

Christian Yelich (MIA) -.051

Michael Morse (MIA) -.063

Justin Bour (MIA) -.074

Ian Kennedy (SD) -.113

Adeiny Hechavarria (MIA) -.118


Cole Gillespie (MIA) -.126

Gillespie found himself in an unfamiliar situation for the Marlins last night, batting leadoff. He started the game with a strikeout (-2.0%), flew out to Jedd Gyorko for the second out of the third inning, ended the fifth and stranded himself by grounding into a fielders' choice (-2.4%), He grounded into a 5-3 putout to end the seventh inning (-7.0%).

Casey McGehee (MIA) -.131

McGehee entered the game as a pinch hitter in the seventh, replacing David Phelps in the order. With one out and a runner on third base, he flew out to shallow center field (-13.1%).

David Phelps (MIA) -.143

Phelps earned the loss but didn't really pitch that badly. He allowed both of his earned runs in the first two innings, allowing five hits and a walk over that span. The next four innings would see the Padres add a single hit to that total, while Phelps struck out five.

Best and Worst

The single worst event to happen to San Diego offensively was Derek Norris' inning ending strikeout in the first, with runners at the corners (-3.8%).

The best single event for the Padres was Will Venable's RBI single in the second inning (+10.3%).

The worst single event the Marlins had to deal with (as already noted) was Casey McGehee's flyout with one out and a man on third in the seventh. (-13.1%).

The best thing the Marlins did, and the single most impactful play of the game was JT Realmuto's triple to left (+21.1%). Although his effort proved ultimately fruitless, it had the potential to change the game.

Check back tomorrow as the Marlins try to break even against these same Padres at 4:05PM EST.