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Heroes And Zeroes: Marlins 5, Diamondbacks 3

Jose Hernandez logged a quality start and struck out 11 Diamondbacks, but the top Hero may surprise you.

Heroes and Zeroes is a series of articles where I rank every player from each Marlins' game by using the Wins Probability Added (WPA) metric available at Players are ranked from highest positive impact on the outcome of the game to highest negative. Fielding statistics are not taken into account when calculating these figures.


Ender Inciarte (AZ) .223

Inciarte led off for the Diamondbacks, and started Arizona's half of the first inning with a strikeout (-2.2%). He flew out to centerfield to close the third (-1.0%), lined out to shortstop to end the fifth (-1.0%), then hit an RBI double with runners on first and second with two out in the seventh (+12.2%) for Arizona's third run of the game to make it 5-3 Miami. In the ninth, with a man on first, nobody out, and still down by two, Inciarte made it interesting with a single to right (+14.3%).

Jose Fernandez (MIA) .195

Fernandez pitched seven complete innings, throwing 66-of-96 of hit pitches for strikes. He kept his yearly WHIP below zero, allowing five hits and two walks for three earned runs, and struck out 11 Diamondbacks for good measure (K/9 = 10.67 for the year). Yet, for all of his heroics on the mound, it would count as just under half of his impact on the outcome of the game (+9.2%). He smacked a ground-rule RBI double with two out and a man on third for Miami's third run of the game in the second (+8.0%), reached base on an error by Jake Lamb to open the fifth (+3.7%), later scoring Miami's fourth run of the night, then lined out with a runner on second to end the sixth (-1.7%).

Wellington Castillo (AZ) .176

Castillo pinch-hit for Chris Owings with nobody out and men on first and second in the ninth, then dropped a base hit into left field to load the bases (+17.6). Then, of course, AJ Ramos struck out the next three Arizona batters to lock in a save for Miami.

Almost Heroes

Bryan Morris (MIA) .153

Aaron Hill (AZ) .118

JT Realmuto (MIA) .110

AJ Ramos (MIA) .091

Ichiro! Suzuki (MIA) .085

AJ Pollock (AZ) .067

Casey McGehee (MIA) .057

Mike Dunn (MIA) .056

David Hernandez (AZ) .046

Dominic Leone (AZ) .046

Minimal Impact

Matt Stites (AZ) .013

Josh Collmenter (AZ) .010

Miguel Rojas (AZ) .009

Cole Gillespie (MIA) -.002

Martin Prado (MIA) -.009

Cliff Pennington (AZ) -.015

Nick Ahmed (AZ) -.017

Almost Zeroes

Jake Lamb (AZ) -.024

David Peralta (AZ) -.045

Adeiny Hechavarria (MIA) -.054

Paul Goldschmidt (AZ) -.057

Christian Yelich (MIA) -.064

Sam Dyson (MIA) -.120

Chris Owings (AZ) -.175


Oscar Hernandez (AZ) -.188

Hernandez completed a hat trick by striking out in the third (-2.3%), the fifth (-2.6%), and for the final out of the eighth (-15.3%) with the bases juiced. He also drew a walk with the bases empty and two out in the seventh (+1.4%).

Yasmany Tomas (AZ) -.319

Tomas didn't really have a bad night from a conventional statistic point of view, going one-for-five on the night and reaching base twice. He grounded out to open the second (-2.2%), singled to right, scoring Paul Goldschmidt from second base with two out in the fourth (+8.2%), and struck out swinging with a runner on first to end the sixth (-2.5%). His final two outs were extremely high leverage. He was responsible for the first out of the eighth, grounding into a 5-2 fielders choice with two men on in the eighth (-18.0%), then struck out with the bases loaded for the final out of the ninth (-17.5%).

Robbie Ray (AZ) -.347

Ray didn't play that badly either, but he suffers tremendously when stacked up against Jose Fernandez. He allowed five hits over 4.2 innings, with three walks for four earned runs (and one unearned). He did strike out four Marlins on the night. Only half of them were Michael Morse.

Best and Worst

Miami's play of the game was in the bottom of the eighth, with nobody out and two runners in scoring position. Yasmany Tomas hit Sam Dyson's 0-1 pitch to Martin Prado (who had just moved to third), then Prado threw out Paul Goldschmidt to keep Miami's lead at two. (+18.0%).

The worst thing to happen to the Fish was just before that. AJ Pollock singled to right field with nobody out and Goldschmidt on first, moving the NL batting leader to third base. The play allowed Arizona to bring the go-ahead run to the plate, and measured as a single-event WPA of .222 (22.2%).