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Miami Marlins over/under bets: May update

At the end of April, we took wagers on how well certain Marlins players would perform going forward. How did they do after the first month of the bets?

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

At the end of April, a number of Fish Stripes readers were making bold claims about some Miami Marlins players they felt would certainly do well or poorly going forward. As it was only one month into the game, I wanted to provide readers a chance to put their fake money where their mouth was and see if they could evaluate a player who may over- or under-perform their estimated projection, as provided by ZiPS. So we took a look at four players and promised to reassess them over the course of the season.

Well, the Fish are one month into those reassessments. How well did the four players whom we discussed perform in their first month of the over/under bet time period? Let's check in.

Michael Morse
Morse, 2015 PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
April 2015 83 .224 .289 .329 .280 76
ZiPS RoS --- .260 .314 .428 .326 107
Post-April 51 .208 .255 .250 .229 39

Morse did not perform well in that half month time period since our initial prop bet offer. In fact, he did not come anywhere close to his expected line, which reflected a downturn from his career batting line. Morse was playing his April self until suffering a hand injury that landed him on the DL and provided Justin Bour some bonus playing time.

Justin Bour
Bour, 2015 PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
April 2015 6 .800 .833 .800 .709 365
ZiPS RoS --- .259 .313 .389 .307 95
Post-April 63 .322 .365 .627 .425 171

Bour, on the other hand, went nuts and continued his red-hot hitting streak into May. Prior to May, he had just six plate appearances but certainly looked decent in them. With Morse's ineffectiveness and hand injury, Miami gave Bour more chances at first base, and he has responded with an extended hot streak. This time, he did it with power, which was the one thing that ZiPS was expecting him to be missing when compared to Morse, who has history on his side. Bour hit five home runs on the month and is posting a 43 percent hard-hit batted ball rate, which so far this year has at least approached Stanton's mark. So far, the switch at first base has paid dividends for Miami.

Dee Gordon
Gordon, 2015 PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
April 2015 95 .400 .415 .478 .391 151
ZiPS RoS --- .293 .334 .369 .312 98
Post-April 122 .351 .393 .412 .352 122

Gordon pretty much split the difference between his first month's performance and his expected average going into May. He was still absurdly hot on balls in play, having hit .417 after hitting .463 the first month. He was striking out and walking a little more often as well, which may be notable. The month itself was pretty up and down for Gordon, as he started it hot with a continuation of May followed by a two-week slump before recovering as of late during the tail end of May.

J.T. Realmuto
Realmuto, 2015 PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
April 2015 44 .238 .250 .333 .252 58
ZiPS RoS --- .244 .293 .353 .286 80
Post-April 97 .200 .240 .356 .254 56

Realmuto was another player, like Morse, who hit about as well in his first month as he did his second month. The young catcher may still be trying to find himself in the majors, as he took a few more pitches this month and upped his strikeout and walk rates. The added walks helped him at least match his OBP and slugging from the previous month despite an even worse .213 BABIP that almost certainly meant a good deal of bad luck. Things should turn around a little more for Realmuto going forward.

Overall, of the four players, two matched their April months and undershot their projections. Two others overshot theirs while playing well, though not obviously as well as they had the month before. Morse may not get as much of a chance to prove his merit once he returns from injury, though a platoon with Bour would not be a bad idea. Realmuto and Gordon, however, have no internal alternatives and will have all season to prove you readers right or wrong.