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Miami Marlins Series Preview: Cincinnati Reds

In this installment of our series previews, Jesse Nadelman takes a look at the Marlins upcoming weekend set with the Reds at Great American Ballpark.

Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports

Miami Marlins (29-39) at Cincinnati Reds (30-35)

Friday June 19th to Sunday June 21st

Great American Ballpark, Cincinnati, Ohio

Game Details

Friday

7:10 P.M. E.T.

TV: FSN-Florida

Radio: 940 AM WINZ, WAQI 710

Starting Pitchers:
MIA- Dan Haren (6-3) 3.22 ERA
CIN- Mike Leake (3-4) 4.35 ERA

Saturday

7:10 P.M. E.T
TV: FSN-Florida
Radio: 940 AM WINZ, WAQI 710
Starting Pitchers:
MIA- Tom Koehler (5-4) 3.76 ERA
CIN- Anthony DeSclafani (5-4) 3.36 ERA

Sunday

1:10 P.M. E.T.
TV: FSN-Florida
Radio: 940 AM WINZ, WAQI 710
Starting Pitchers:
MIA- David Phelps (4-3) 3.96 ERA
CIN- Michael Lorenzen (2-2) 3.70 ERA

Overview:

After taking the first two games at Marlins Park of a four-game set with the New York Yankees, the Marlins went on to lose the last two at Yankee Stadium, walking away with a series split.

The Marlins were able to squeeze out a 2-1 victory in a pitcher’s duel against Masahiro Tanaka on Monday night, and totally clubbed Nathan Eovaldi on Tuesday night, en route to a 12-2 blowout victory. However, the Fish were not able to continue their success in the Big Apple, losing 2-1 on Wednesday night, and then falling 9-4 on Thursday Night.

The Marlins will finish up a road-trip in Cincinnati this weekend, where the Marlins’ starters will look to continue their recent success. Both David Phelps and Tom Koehler have pitched back-to-back lights-out home outings, earning Miami victories in all those games.

Koehler has thrown over 100 pitches in each of his last three starts, and picked up wins in two of his last three, but his inconsistency has been an issue. In fact, Koehler has followed all of his wins this season with losses in all but one situation, which came last week against the Rockies. His win probability percentage has gone from positive to negative in almost all his starts.

For instance, Koehler had a 0.270 win probability against Colorado, but then a -0.234 win probability against the Blue Jays in his following start. He will look to change that in his next start Saturday night.

The Marlins will face the Reds for the first time this season, and conclude a five-game road-trip before heading back home to play the Cardinals and Dodgers.

The Reds are coming off taking two out of three games against the Detroit Tigers, but Cincinnati has been a major disappointment thus far this season. The Reds currently sit fourth in the NL Central at five games under .500, but have just a 1.1% chance to make the playoffs, according to fangraphs.com.

The Reds’ offense has been sub-par this season, despite having a lineup that contains stars like Joey Votto, Todd Frazier, Brandon Phillips, and Jay Bruce. Cincinnati is hitting just .244/.312/.405, with their OBP and batting average below the league average. The Reds currently have just one starter, catcher Brayan Pena, hitting over .300.

Todd Frazier and Joey Votto lead the Reds with Frazier posting a 3.7 WAR and Votto a 2.7 WAR. However, the Reds lost shortstop Zack Cosart for the season recently, and he was third on the team with a WAR of 2.0 this early into the year.

The Reds’ rotation has been up and down, as starters Johnny Cueto, Anthony DeSclafani, and Michael Lorenzen have all been solid with ERA’s under 3.70, but Jason Marquis and Mike Leake each has ERA’s over four, and WHIP’s over 1.25. However, Leake has been better than Marquis, with Leake having an RA9 of 4.46, and Marquis posting one of 7.04.

The Reds, who host the 2015 all-star game, are still trying to figure out whether to buy or sell at the trade-deadline. If they sell, Mike Leake, Johnny Cueto, and Aroldis Chapman could all become available. The Reds are 18-13 at home this season, but are twelve and a half games back of the Cardinals in the NL Central entering Friday Night.