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Heroes And Zeroes: Nationals 6, Marlins 4

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Bryan Morris had the most impact of any player in last night's game. Unfortunately, his linear distance from even was on the negative side of the number line.

Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Heroes and Zeroes is a series of articles which focus on the players who had the most impact at the plate and on the mound. I used the Wins Probability Added (WPA) chart at www.fangraphs.com to help sort out the details.

Heroes

Yuniel Escobar (WAS) .503

Escobar, batting second, hit a one-out single to left in the first inning (+2.6%), later scoring on Ryan Zimmerman's sacrifice fly to tie the game at one. He singled to left to lead off the third (+4.1%), hit a single to right in the fifth with one out and one on (+4.7%), singled for a fourth time with two outs and a man on first in the seventh (+5.8%), and finished it off with a two-out, two run single in the eighth to put the Nats on top, 6-4 (+33.1%).

Ian Desmond (WAS) .298

Desmond, batting seventh, struck out looking with the bases loaded in the first (-7.1%), repeating the performance in the fourth for the second out of the inning (-1.8%). He flew out to end the sixth (-1.6%), then made up for his first three plate appearances in the eighth by hitting a one-out, two-run homer to tie the game at four.

Jeff Baker (MIA) .287

Baker pinch hit for Justin Bour in the eighth with two outs and runners on second and third, singling Dee Gordon in for a 3-2 Marlins lead (28.7%).

Almost Heroes

Jayson Werth (WAS) .171

David Phelps (MIA) .162

Justin Bour (MIA) .156

Dee Gordon (MIA) .068

Tanner Roark (WAS) .064

Clint Robinson (WAS) .054

Ichiro Suzuki (MIA) .040

Tyler Moore (WAS) .023

Minimal Impact

Jordan Zimmermann (WAS). 016

Blake Trienen (WAS) .012

Mike Dunn (MIA) .002

Denard Span (WAS) .002

Adeiny Hechavarria (MIA) -.002

GIancarlo Stanton (MIA) -.005

Bryce Harper (WAS) -.020

Almost Zeroes

Marcell Ozuna (MIA) -.024

Reid Brignac (MIA) -.034

Ryan ZImmerman (WAS) -.055

JT Realmuto (MIA) -.061

WIlmer Ramos (WAS) -.084

Danny Espinosa (WAS) -.114

Martin Prado (MIA) -.134

Zeroes

Sam Dyson (MIA) -.159

Dyson relieved Mike Dunn with two outs in the seventh, and runners on the corners. He allowed Jayson Werth a game-tying single to right field (-23.1%) before inducing Bryce Harper to fly out to short (+7.2%).

Matt Grace (WAS) -.371

Grace relieved Blake Treinen with two out in the eighth and runners on first and second. He allowed Jeff Baker's RBI single (-28.7%), intentionally walked JT Realmuto (-1.0%) to load the bases, an RBI single to Ichiro Suzuki (-10.7%), then finally got his one out by striking out Adeiny Hechavarria (+3.2%).

Bryan Morris (MIA) -.795

Morris entered in the eighth with a 4-2 lead. He walked Ryan Zimmerman (-7.6%), induced Wilson Ramos to fly out (+6.5%), then gave up a game-tying home run to Ian Desmond (-40.3%). After striking out Danny Espinosa (+3.2%), He allowed a Tyler Moore single (-2.3%), a Denard Span double (-6.3%), and a two-run Yuniel Escobar single to right (-33.1%). It was then a case of too little too late when he got Jayson Werth to ground out to end the madness (+0.5%).

Last 10 Games

Dee Gordon 0.860
Giancarlo Stanton 0.535
Marcell Ozuna 0.511
Justin Bour 0.437
David Phelps 0.345
Mike Dunn 0.340
Jeff Baker 0.218
Jarred Cosart 0.182
Jhonatan Solano 0.160
Adieny Hechavarria 0.152
Dan Haren 0.145
Tom Koehler 0.136
Martin Prado 0.124
Brad Hand 0.050
Mat Latos 0.042
Sam Dyson 0.041
AJ Ramos 0.028
Nick Masset 0.010
Donovan Solano -0.072
Reid Brignac -0.077
Ichiro Suzuki -0.245
Mike Morse -0.304
Steve Cishek -0.326
JT Realmuto -0.527
Bryan Morris -0.742


Ichthyomancy

Attendance: 24,731

Marlon D was only 36 off the actual attendance with a guess of 24,685 for two points.

Jigokusabre said the Marlins would score in exactly three different innings for two points.

Jeremy Hulme - I live in Germany, and couldn't watch last night's game, but I'm going to give you one point because your prop bet was interesting and I can't check the results of the President's race.

MiamiSkye got a point for calling 6+IP for Phelps.

gustavopim got a point for calling Phelps for a QS and half a point for saying the Marlins would strike out 5+.

Gatorfan4life got two points for calling a two-run Nationals win (boo) and a point for calling a Zimmermann QS.

For the first time, nobody predicted a single hero or zero.

Ichthyomancy Standings

gustavopim 63
Miami Skye 61.5
Jigokusabre 54
dcfish 42
Kevin Kraczkowski 39.5
Marlon D 31
Bdwatson 25
Gatorfan4life 25.5
tomwolf2008 19
Jeremy Hulme 19
Thomas Bennett 14
thenumber95 11
sternma 6
zag 3
Alex Carver 3
Delusional Marlins Fan 2
rsanchez1 2
Al-Kendall 2
DavidJacobs 2
Sandman 2
SuperRadz 1
ncchief 1
d.o.g.o.b.y.g.n. 1
nfries7 1

Miami gets another shot at the favorite to win the NL East title this season tonight at 7:10PM, and with any luck, they'll get a chance to take the series tomorrow afternoon. Leave your picks here or in the game thread.