Heroes And Zeroes: Marlins 4, Phillies 3

Heroes and Zeroes is a series of articles which focus on the players who had the most impact at the plate and on the mound. I used the Wins Probability Added (WPA) chart at www.fangraphs.com to help sort out the details.

Heroes

Marcell Ozuna (MIA) .489

Ozuna, batting fourth, started the game out with a leadoff double to right in the second inning (+6.6%), later scoring on a JT Realmuto sacrifice fly. He doubled to center field to lead off the fourth (+7.7%), down by two runs, but was erased when Ichiro! Suzuki hit into an inning ending double play. With the score tied at three with one out and runners at second and third in the fifth, Jerome Williams pitched him intentionally to first to load the bases (+0.8%), a move that paid off with a Michael Morse strikeout and a JT Realmuto 5-3 groundout. With one out in the seventh, Ozuna hit a one-out infield single to the third base side (+4.0%). He hit his third double of the night in the bottom of the ninth, scoring Giancarlo Stanton from first with the winning run, walk-off style (+29.8%).

Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) .170

Stanton, batting third, opened his night with a routine grounder to the first base side (-1.0%), then struck out swinging  with a man at third to end the third (-3.4%). With one out and runners at the corners in the fifth, he doubled to left (+17.7%), scoring Dee Gordon and tying the score at three. He hit a 5-3 groundout to lead off the seventh (-3.7%), then drew a walk to lead off the ninth (7.4%), scoring the winning run moments later on Ozuna's double.

Chase Utley (PHI) .143

Utley, batting third for the Phillies, grounded out to first in his first plate appearance of the evening, ending the first inning (-1.0%). He came to plate for the second time with nobody out and runners at the corners in the fourth, down 1-0, and responded with a three-run blast (+20.9%) to put the Phils on top, 3-1. It turned out to be Philadelphia's only RBI of the game. He flew out to center to open the sixth against Brad Hand (-3.3%), then later grounded out to second against Mike Dunn for the final out of the eighth (-2.4%).

Almost Heroes

Dee Gordon (MIA) .134

Justin Bour (MIA) .129

Steve Cishek (MIA) .128

Michael Dunn (MIA) .101

Luis Garcia (PHI) .084

AJ Ramos (MIA) .084

Jeanmar Gomez (PHI) .072

Brad Hand (MIA) .072

Odubel Herrera (PHI) .068

Reid Brignac (MIA) .035

Jeff Baker (MIA) .023

Minimal Impact

Cody Asche (PHI) -.001

Almost Zeroes

Ben Revere (PHI) -.029

Grady Sizemore (PHI) -.033

Adeiny Hechavarria (MIA) -.047

Carlos Ruiz (PHI) -.056

Cesar Hernandez (PHI) -.061

Freddie Galvis (PHI) -.098

Michael Morse (MIA) -.108

Ryan Howard (PHI) -.128

JT Realmuto (MIA) -.144

Martin Prado (MIA) -.176

Tom Koehler (MIA) -.179

Zeroes

Jerome Williams (PHI) -.187

Williams and Koehler eached earned a -16.0% win expectancy from their contributions as pitchers, both going exactly five innings and giving up three earned runs. The reason why Williams finished 0.8% behind Koehler was because he made two plate appearances to only one for Koehler, and Williams struck out twice (-2.7%) to just a simple groundout for Koehler (-1.9%). Williams allowed seven hits and two walks, striking out two.

Ichiro Suzuki (MIA) -.211

Suzuki singled to center with two out in the second (+1.0%). His biggest gaffe en route to the Zero bin came in the bottom of the fourth, when he came to the plate down by two runs with one out and runners on both corners, then grounded into a 4-6-3 double play (-14.5%). He flew out to center to open the sixth (-3.2%) and later hit a 1-3 groundout to open the eighth (-4.4%).

Ken Giles (PHI) -.276

Giles pitched the eighth for Philadelphia, inducing a Suzuki groundout (+4.4%) and a Adeiny Hechavarria fly out (-3.3%) before giving up consecutive singles to Jeff Baker (-2.3%) and Dee Gordon (-5.6%). He got out of it unscathed after getting Martin Prado to strike out for the third out of the frame (+10.4%). Ryan Sandberg left him in for the ninth, and almost immediately regretted it. Giles walked Stanton (-7.4%) then gave up a game-winning double to Ozuna (-29.8%). Game, Set, Match.

Last 10 Games

Dee Gordon	0.966
Jarred Cosart	0.788
Adieny Hechavarria	0.668
Giancarlo Stanton	0.624
Marcell Ozuna	0.618
David Phelps	0.318
Justin Bour	0.303
Bryan Morris	0.245
Sam Dyson	0.199
Mike Dunn	0.173
Tom Koehler	0.136
Brad Hand	0.072
Mat Latos	0.042
AJ Ramos	0.041
Reid Brignac	0.027
Jeff Baker	0.011
Nick Masset	0.002
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	-0.043
Martin Prado	-0.088
Donovan Solano	-0.206
Mike Morse	-0.255
Steve Cishek	-0.321
Ichiro Suzuki	-0.375
JT Realmuto	-0.382
Dan Haren	-0.543

Ichthyomancy

Attendance: 18,511

MiamiSkye guessed 18,500, just 11 off the actual figure. He also predicted the exact score for two more, called a Gordon stolen base, then got two of the three zeroes for a total of EIGHT POINTS!!!

dcfish called the winner, Stanton and Utley in the Hero column and Williams over in the Zeroes for five points.

Sandman called a one-run Marlins win for two points.

Jigokusabre called the winner, said the Fish would take the lead in inning one or two, and called Stanton a Hero for three points.

Jeremy Hulme called the winner, Stanton a Hero, Williams a Zero, and called the Marlins for scoring on a sac fly for four total points.

gustavopim called the winner and Stanton a Hero for two points.

Ichthyomancy Standings

gustavopim	55.5
Miami Skye	51.5
Jigokusabre	47
dcfish	42
Kevin Kraczkowski	39.5
Marlon D	26.5
Bdwatson	24
tomwolf2008	19
Jeremy Hulme	17
Gatorfan4life	16.5

I'm only listing the top 10 here. Rest assured, if you don't see your name, I am tracking your totals.

Next game is at Marlins Park, later today at 4:10 ET, when Dan Haren (2-1, 3.38) faces off against Cole Hamels (1-2, 3.19) and the Marlins try to make it back to .500.