Heroes And Zeroes: Marlins 5, Dodgers 4

Heroes and Zeroes is a series where I take each players contribution to the final result (based on weighted plate appearances) of the ballgame. Each participant in the matchup is ranked from best to worst. The top three are "Heroes," the bottom three are "Zeroes." I used the win expectancy chart from www.fangraphs.com to rank these players.

Heroes

Dee Gordon (MIA) .261

Gordon led off the first inning with a single to right field (+3.7%), advancing to second on a passed ball (+2.6%). He doubled to center to lead off the third (+7.2%), later scoring on a Giancarlo Stanton groundout. He grounded out with two on to end the fifth (-3.0%), singled to right with nobody out and two on in the seventh (+13.3%) and scored a run on Stanton's RBI single. Gordon hit a double with one out in the eighth to cap off a good night (+2.3%).

Enrique Hernandez (LAD) .196

Hernandez, batting eighth for the Dodgers, was "awarded" a -4.4% win expectancy when he singled with two on and two out in the second, but Yasmani Grandal got thrown out at home. It's one of two shortcomings involved in dealing with WPA, along with fielding errors. Hernandez later hit a two-run home run with nobody out in the fifth (+27.3%) and grounded out to shortstop for the second out of the seventh (-3.2%).

AJ Ramos (MIA) .176

Ramos came on to open the ninth with a 5-4 Marlins lead. He struck out Jimmy Rollins (+8.0%) and Yasmani Grandal (+5.7%) looking, ending the game by inducing Andre Ethier to fly out to right (+4.0%) for the save.

Almost Heroes

Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) .136

Mike Dunn (MIA) .129

Martin Prado (MIA) .128

Alex Guerrero (LAD) .118

Bryan Morris (MIA) .101

Ichiro! Suzuki (MIA) .097

Pedro Baez (LAD) .080

Sergio Santos (LAD) .063

Adeiny Hechavarria (MIA) .051

Sam Dyson (MIA) .025

Howie Kendrick (LAD) .024

Minimal Impact

Joc Pederson (LAD) .018

Andre Ethier (LAD) -.008

Justin Bour (MIA) -.014

Almost Zeroes

Scott Van Slyke (LAD) -.022

Marcell Ozuna (MIA) -.046

Carlos Frias (LAD) -.068

Justin Turner (LAD) -.076

Michael Morse (MIA) -.079

Jimmy Rollins (LAD) -.080

Yasmani Grandal (LAD) -.082

JT Realmuto (MIA) -.091

Christian Yelich (MIA) -.146

Adrian Gonzalez (LAD) -.146

Zeroes

Jarred Cosart (MIA) -.229

Cosart He avoided the biggest zero slot when he singled JT Realmuto in with two outs in the fourth (+10.8%). On the mound, he gave up three walks and five hits, including two home runs in five and a third innings. He struck out four Dodgers and allowed a total of four earned runs.

Adam Liberatore (LAD) -.230

Liberatore relieved Carlos Frias with nobody out and one on in the seventh, then gave up consecutive singles to Ichiro! Suzuki (-9.7%) and Dee Gordon (-13.3%). Both runners scored, changing a 4-2 Dodgers lead into a tie game.

Chris Hatcher (LAD) -.285

Hatcher came on to "rescue" Liberatore with nobody out, the bases loaded, and a two-run lead in the seventh. Martin Prado singled to center (-16.4%) to score one run, and Giancarlo Stanton hit a two-RBI single a moment later (-18.7%). Hatcher started to get outs after that, in a case of too little too late. He got outs on a Marcell Ozuna grounder (+1.3%) and a Christian Yelich grounder (+7.9%) before walking Michael Morse (-2.7%) and getting relieved by Pedro Baez.

Last 10 Games

Heroes	Christian Yelich	0.473
	Mat Latos	0.454
	Dee Gordon	0.407
Almost Heroes	Mike Dunn	0.348
	David Phelps	0.348
	Donovan Solano	0.346
	Jeff Baker	0.326
	AJ Ramos	0.317
	Justin Bour	0.155
	Dan Haren	0.102
Minimal Impact	Mike Morse	0.079
	Ichiro Suzuki	0.064
	Nick Masset	-0.005
	JT Realmuto	-0.006
	Brad Hand	-0.048
	Reid Brignac	-0.052
	Marcell Ozuna	-0.099
Almost Zeroes	Jhonatan Solano	-0.105
	Giancarlo Stanton	-0.130
	Sam Dyson	-0.145
	Martin Prado	-0.326
	Tom Koehler	-0.368
	Adieny Hechavarria	-0.491
Zeroes	Jarred Cosart	-0.509
	Bryan Morris	-0.667
	Steve Cishek	-1.470

Ichthyomancy

Attendance: 38,316

Marlon D guessed 44,187, which was the lowest Ichthy attendance prediction for two points. He predicted a Marlins win and a Stanton Hero for two more.

MiamiSkye called a Miami win, called a Dee Gordon multi-hit game for a point and a half, and got another point by calling both starting pitchers as both Heroes and Zeroes (Cosart - Zero). Three and a half total points.

dcfish called the winner.

sternma called Cosart a Zero for one point.

Jigokusabre called a Marlins win, said the Fish bullpen would give up zero ER, and predicted Cosart would wind up a Zero for 3.5 points total.

Jeremy Hulme called the Marlins win and said the Fish would bat around in one inning (two points) for a total of three.

gustavopim called a Marlins win, a Gordon Hero and a Cosart Zero.

Ichthyomancy Standings

gustavopim	90.5
Miami Skye	89.5
Jigokusabre	76.5
dcfish	53
Marlon D	43
Kevin Kraczkowski	41.5
Gatorfan4life	36.5
Jeremy Hulme	32
Bdwatson	25
tomwolf2008	19
Thomas Bennett	18.5
sternma	15
thenumber95	11

The Marlins enjoy a rest day today before hosting the Atlanta Braves, the Arizona Diamondbacks, and the Baltimore Orioles on a 10-day homestand. Get your picks for the Friday matchup here or in the GameThread.