Heroes and Zeroes is a series where I take each players contribution to the final result (based on weighted plate appearances) of the ballgame. Each participant in the matchup is ranked from best to worst. The top three are "Heroes," the bottom three are "Zeroes." I used the win expectancy chart from www.fangraphs.com to rank these players.
Dee Gordon (MIA) .261
Gordon led off the first inning with a single to right field (+3.7%), advancing to second on a passed ball (+2.6%). He doubled to center to lead off the third (+7.2%), later scoring on a Giancarlo Stanton groundout. He grounded out with two on to end the fifth (-3.0%), singled to right with nobody out and two on in the seventh (+13.3%) and scored a run on Stanton's RBI single. Gordon hit a double with one out in the eighth to cap off a good night (+2.3%).
Enrique Hernandez (LAD) .196
Hernandez, batting eighth for the Dodgers, was "awarded" a -4.4% win expectancy when he singled with two on and two out in the second, but Yasmani Grandal got thrown out at home. It's one of two shortcomings involved in dealing with WPA, along with fielding errors. Hernandez later hit a two-run home run with nobody out in the fifth (+27.3%) and grounded out to shortstop for the second out of the seventh (-3.2%).
AJ Ramos (MIA) .176
Ramos came on to open the ninth with a 5-4 Marlins lead. He struck out Jimmy Rollins (+8.0%) and Yasmani Grandal (+5.7%) looking, ending the game by inducing Andre Ethier to fly out to right (+4.0%) for the save.
Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) .136
Mike Dunn (MIA) .129
Martin Prado (MIA) .128
Alex Guerrero (LAD) .118
Bryan Morris (MIA) .101
Ichiro! Suzuki (MIA) .097
Pedro Baez (LAD) .080
Sergio Santos (LAD) .063
Adeiny Hechavarria (MIA) .051
Sam Dyson (MIA) .025
Howie Kendrick (LAD) .024
Joc Pederson (LAD) .018
Andre Ethier (LAD) -.008
Justin Bour (MIA) -.014
Scott Van Slyke (LAD) -.022
Marcell Ozuna (MIA) -.046
Carlos Frias (LAD) -.068
Justin Turner (LAD) -.076
Michael Morse (MIA) -.079
Jimmy Rollins (LAD) -.080
Yasmani Grandal (LAD) -.082
JT Realmuto (MIA) -.091
Christian Yelich (MIA) -.146
Adrian Gonzalez (LAD) -.146
Jarred Cosart (MIA) -.229
Cosart He avoided the biggest zero slot when he singled JT Realmuto in with two outs in the fourth (+10.8%). On the mound, he gave up three walks and five hits, including two home runs in five and a third innings. He struck out four Dodgers and allowed a total of four earned runs.
Adam Liberatore (LAD) -.230
Liberatore relieved Carlos Frias with nobody out and one on in the seventh, then gave up consecutive singles to Ichiro! Suzuki (-9.7%) and Dee Gordon (-13.3%). Both runners scored, changing a 4-2 Dodgers lead into a tie game.
Chris Hatcher (LAD) -.285
Hatcher came on to "rescue" Liberatore with nobody out, the bases loaded, and a two-run lead in the seventh. Martin Prado singled to center (-16.4%) to score one run, and Giancarlo Stanton hit a two-RBI single a moment later (-18.7%). Hatcher started to get outs after that, in a case of too little too late. He got outs on a Marcell Ozuna grounder (+1.3%) and a Christian Yelich grounder (+7.9%) before walking Michael Morse (-2.7%) and getting relieved by Pedro Baez.
Last 10 Games
|Almost Heroes||Mike Dunn||0.348|
|Minimal Impact||Mike Morse||0.079|
|Almost Zeroes||Jhonatan Solano||-0.105|
Marlon D guessed 44,187, which was the lowest Ichthy attendance prediction for two points. He predicted a Marlins win and a Stanton Hero for two more.
MiamiSkye called a Miami win, called a Dee Gordon multi-hit game for a point and a half, and got another point by calling both starting pitchers as both Heroes and Zeroes (Cosart - Zero). Three and a half total points.
dcfish called the winner.
sternma called Cosart a Zero for one point.
Jigokusabre called a Marlins win, said the Fish bullpen would give up zero ER, and predicted Cosart would wind up a Zero for 3.5 points total.
Jeremy Hulme called the Marlins win and said the Fish would bat around in one inning (two points) for a total of three.
gustavopim called a Marlins win, a Gordon Hero and a Cosart Zero.
The Marlins enjoy a rest day today before hosting the Atlanta Braves, the Arizona Diamondbacks, and the Baltimore Orioles on a 10-day homestand. Get your picks for the Friday matchup here or in the GameThread.