Heroes And Zeroes: Giants 3, Marlins 2

Heroes and Zeroes is a series where I take each players contribution to the final result (based on weighted plate appearances) of the ballgame. Each participant in the matchup is ranked from best to worst. The top three are "Heroes," the bottom three are "Zeroes." I used the win expectancy chart from www.fangraphs.com to rank these players.

Heroes

Nori Aoki (SFG) .444

Aoki led off for the Giants, and began his night with a grounder to first (-2.1%). He singled to second with two out in the third (+1.4%), singled to left in the sixth with one out (+6.7%), stealing second a moment later (+4.9%) then scoring on a Brandon Belt single. Aoki grounded out to third to lead off the eighth (-5.9%), then drew a two-out, bases-loaded walk from Steve Cishek (+39.4%) to tie the score at two in the bottom of the ninth.

Gregor Blanco (SFG) .439

Blanco batted seventh for San Francisco, and struck out swinging in his first plate appearance to close the second inning (-1.0%). He singled to shortstop in the fifth (+3.9%), hit a ground rule double with one out in the seventh (+7.7%), and added another double with one out and one on in the ninth (+33.3%), later scoring the winning run on a Matt Duffy single.

Matt Duffy (SFG) .250

Duffy, batting second for the Giants, struck out looking for the second out of the first (-1.4%). He grounded out to end the third inning with one on base (-2.5%), grounded out to shortstop with a man on second for the first out of the sixth (-1.9%), grounded out to second for the second out of the eighth, and closed his night with a walk-off single to left (+34.9%) which scored Gregor Blanco.

Almost Heroes

Donovan Solano (MIA) .246

Mat Latos (MIA) .225

Dee Gordon (MIA) .191

Ryan Vogelsong (SFG) .175

Brandon Belt (SFG) .132

Mike Dunn (MIA) .129

Michael Morse (MIA) .079

Justin Bour (MIA) .048

Santiago Casilla (SFG) .045

Minimal Impact

Christian Yelich (MIA) .019

Andrew Susac (SFG) .007

Buster Posey (SFG) -.003

Jeremy Affeldt (SFG) -.015

Almost Zeroes

Ichiro! Suzuki MIA) -.037

Brandon Crawford (SFG) -.072

Joe Panik (SFG) -.095

Adeiny Hechavarria (MIA) -.097

Marcell Ozuna (MIA) -.102

Jhonatan Solano (MIA) -.105

Casey McGehee (SFG) -.116

Jason Maxwell (SFG) -.202

Sergio Romo (SFG) -.227

Zeroes

Angel Pagan (SFG) -.261

Pagan came on as a pinch hitter in the bottom of the ninth with one out and the bases loaded, and struck out swinging against Steve Cishek (-26.1%).

Martin Prado (MIA) -.269

Prado batted second for the Marlins, grounding hit to third in his first trip to the dish (-1.4%). He flew out to right with two runners in scoring position to end the third (-6.6%), flew out to left to open the sixth (-2.2%) and struck out swinging with runners on second and third for the second out of the eighth (-16.7%).

Steve Cishek (MIA) -.825

Cishek came on in a save situation, opening the ninth with a 2-1 lead. He struck out Jason Maxwell swinging (+7.9%), then allowed an Andrew Susac single (-9.2%) and  a Gregor Blanco double (-33.3%) before intentionally walking Buster Posey to load the bases (-0.3%). After striking out Angel Pagan swinging (+26.1%), he walked Nori Aoki in with the game tying run (-39.4%) before giving up a walk-off game-winning RBI single to Matt Duffy (-34.9%).

Last 10 Games

Heroes	Dan Haren	0.613
	Dee Gordon	0.572
	Mat Latos	0.454
Almost Heroes	Donovan Solano	0.363
	David Phelps	0.348
	Jeff Baker	0.344
	Marcell Ozuna	0.320
	Mike Dunn	0.320
	AJ Ramos	0.312
	Justin Bour	0.276
	Nick Masset	0.191
Minimal Impact	Jhonatan Solano	0.055
	Brad Hand	0.034
	Mike Morse	-0.057
	Christian Yelich	-0.083
	Reid Brignac	-0.090
Almost Zeroes	JT Realmuto	-0.148
	Ichiro Suzuki	-0.182
	Sam Dyson	-0.194
	Giancarlo Stanton	-0.206
	Martin Prado	-0.221
	Adieny Hechavarria	-0.337
	Steve Cishek	-0.518
Zeroes	Jarred Cosart	-0.593
	Tom Koehler	-0.624
	Bryan Morris	-0.950

Ichthyomancy

Attendance: 41,889

Jigokusabre won the attendance with a prediction of 41,503, 386 off the actual figure.

sternma came within a whisker of a truly epic parlay, calling both pitchers for quality starts, Vogelsong with seven K's (he had five) and Latos with four K's (he also had five).

nfries7 said Latos would pitch at least five shutout innings (he pitched six of those) for 1.5.

gustavopim said the starting pitchers would combine to go between 11.2 and 14 innings, with is worth .5 by itself, but he parlayed it with a Latos QS and gets two points.

dcfish said neither team would commit an error.

Gatorfan4life called the winner for a point.

Ichthyomancy Standings

Miami Skye	85
gustavopim	77.5
Jigokusabre	68.5
dcfish	50
Kevin Kraczkowski	39.5
Marlon D	39
Gatorfan4life	30.5
Bdwatson	25
Jeremy Hulme	25
tomwolf2008	19
Thomas Bennett	17.5
sternma	14

Miami opens a three game series at the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight. Get your picks in here or in the GameThread.