Heroes And Zeroes: Marlins 0, Braves 2

Heroes and Zeroes is an article that uses Wins Probability Added (WPA) to identify the main causes of wins and losses for each game.

Heroes

Shelby Miller (ATL) .296

Miller only pitched five innings, and limited the Marlins to four singles and two walks. He struck out four (+6.4%) on the night. His single biggest moment came with the bases loaded and two outs in the third, when he induced a harmless fielder's choice from Michael Morse (+8.0%) to end the only real threat the Marlins could mount. His placement as the first hero of the night wasn't really due in any part to any one play, but to a solid, measured five-inning performance.

AJ Pierzynski (ATL) .275

By contrast, Pierzynski's inclusion in Heroes and Zeroes was due to just one play. He started his night with a fly out to left field for the second out of the inning (-1.6%), then drew a two-out walk in the fourth (+1.5%). Predictably then, for those of you who watched the game anyway, AJ's big moment came in the top of the seventh with one on and nobody out. He slapped the ball over the right field fence (27.3%), scoring Freddie Freeman and ending a good season debut for Tom Koehler, who to that moment was pitching a shutout.

Brandon Cunniff (ATL) .133

Cunniff came on to pitch the sixth inning in relief of Miller, easily dispatching Miami's 4-5-6 hitters with infield ground outs (+7.1%). He stayed on the hill for the seventh inning with a shiny new two-run lead, and induced an Adeiny Hechavarria fly out (+3.6%) and a Jeff Mathis whiff (+2.4%) before getting lifted in favor of Luis Avilan.

Almost Heroes

Jason Grilli (ATL), 1 IP, 1 SO, 1 Save, .081

Jim Johnson (ATL) 1 IP, 1 H, 2 SO, .080

AJ Ramos (MIA) 1 IP, 1 SO, .030

Bryan Morris (MIA) 1 IP, 1 H, .024

Minimal Impact

Luis Avilan (ATL) 0.1 IP, 1 H, .015

Mike Dunn (MIA) 1 IP, 1 SO, .014

Nick Markakis (ATL) 0-3, 1 BB, .012

Don Kelly (MIA) 0 PA, .000

Eric Young (ATL) 0-1, -.011

Donovan Solano (MIA) 0-1,  -.013

Alberto Callaspo (ATL) 2-3, -.018

Almost Zeroes

Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) 0-3, 1 BB, 3 SO, -.025

Jonny Gomes (ATL) 1-4, 1 SO, -.035

Jeff Mathis (MIA) 0-2, 1 BB, 2 SO, -.038

Mike Morse (MIA) 2-4, -.050

Martin Prado (MIA) 1-4, -.054

Freddie Freeman (ATL) 1-4, 1 R, 1 SO, -.057

Christian Yelich (MIA) 1-4, 1 SO, -.057

Tom Koehler (MIA) 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 4 K, -.059

Dee Gordon (MIA) 1-4, -.061

Cameron Maybin (ATL) 0-3, 2 K, -.072

Zeroes

Jace Peterson (ATL) -.080

Peterson got the ball rolling (not literally) by striking out swinging to lead off the first inning (-2.2%). He flew out to left field with nobody out and a man on first in the third inning (-3.8%) and opened the sixth with an easy fly ball out to center field (-3.3%). He saved his night (somewhat) with a one-out single to left field with a 2-0 lead in the eighth (+1.2%)

Adeiny Hechavarria (MIA) -.106

Batting seventh in the lineup, Heche started by ending the second inning with a grounder to second base (-2.3%). In the fourth with one out and one on, he moved Martin Prado to second base on a grounder (-2.0%). He opened the seventh with a foul out to right field (-3.6%) and grounded out to first for the second out of the final frame (-2.6%).

Andrelton Simmons (ATL) -.119

Despite standing on the winning side of the equation, Simmons turned in the single biggest negative WPA on the night. He grounded out to third for the second out of the first (-1.5%), grounded into an inning ending 1-4-3 double play in the third (-5.6%), flew out to center field for the second out of the sixth (-1.5%), and grounded into another double play to end the eighth inning (-2.5%)

Ichthyomancy

Attendance was 16,127, and some genius guessed 16,227 for a net difference of 100 (oh it was me).

dcfish earned a point by calling Koehler for no runs allowed through at least four innings.

Bdwatson, sternma, and Gatorfan4life predicted the winner for one point each.

gustavopim correctly predicted Adeiny Hechevarria would earn a zero.

Jigokusabre predicted Koehler would last 6+ innings and allow 2 or less ER. Way to cut it close to the bone, Jigo. He also correctly called Heche in the zero column.

Ichthyomancy Standings

dcfish	5
Miami Skye	3
Bdwatson	3
Kevin Kraczkowski	3
Jigokusabre	3
zag	2
Marlon D	2
Gatorfan4life	2
SuperRadz	1
ncchief	1
d.o.g.o.b.y.g.n.	1
sternma	1
gustavopim	1

It's early in the season still, so let's back away from the ledge please. We still have 159 games to go. Tomorrow's an off day, then the Marlins will welcome the Tampa Bay Rays to Marlins' Park for a three game weekend series.