Heroes and Zeroes: Braves 2, Marlins 1

Luis Avilan (ATL) .315

In a startlingly well-timed teaching moment for someone who may not know what WIns Probability Added (WPA) is, the highest value of the night was earned by Avilan, who only pitched to one batter. He threw one ball and two strikes, the last of which was hit by Jarrod Saltalamacchia directly to third base on the ground. Unfortunately for Miami, the bases were loaded, and there was nobody out at the time, with the Marlins down by a run in the bottom of the seventh. Braves third baseman Alberto Callaspo threw the ball to Christian Bethancourt to force out lead baserunner Mike Morse, then Bethancourt completed the 5-2-3 double play with a clean throw to Freddie Freeman. Runners were left on second and third, but Avilan proved to have the most efficient night possible.

Jim Johnson (ATL) .264

Johnson relieved Avila right after that huge double play, and had almost as good a night as the former. He induced Adeiny Hechavarria to fly out harmlessly into foul territory to Freeman to end the seventh inning Marlins threat. That single play was good for 13.1% of Atlanta's win. The eighth inning would see Johnson induce two more groundouts, first Ichiro Suzuki to Freeman (+6.1%), then Dee Gordon back to the mound (+4.3%). He ended the frame by striking out Christian Yelich swinging (+3.0%).

Marcell Ozuna (MIA) .184

Ozuna finished his night with one of six positive WPA's for Miami. He grounded out to third base to end the second inning (-1.1%), followed by a single to open the fifth (+4.7%). Ozuna earned most of his paycheck in the bottom of the seventh, hitting a single to right field with runners already on first and second base and nobody out (+14.8%).

Almost Heroes

Marcell Ozuna (ATL) .184

Nick Markakis (ATL) .151

Henderson Alvarez (MIA) .061

Mike Dunn (MIA) .046

AJ Ramos (MIA) .033

Martin Prado (MIA) .029

Minimal Impact

Eric Young (ATL) .016

Dee Gordon (MIA) .002

Jace Peterson (ATL) -.002

Alberto Callaspo (ATL) -.010

Cameron Maybin (ATL) -.011

Almost Zeroes

Freddie Freeman (ATL) -.024

Mike Morse (MIA) -.039

Christian Yelich (MIA) -.050

Ichiro Suzuki (MIA) -.061

Andrelton Simmons (ATL) -.074

Kelly Johnson (ATL) -.083

Christian Bethancourt (ATL) -.100

Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) -.104

Zeroes

Julio Teheran (ATL) -.127

Teheran started Atlanta's night by collecting eight outs (+14.7%) before Miami got a baserunner onto base when Henderson Alvarez doubled down the left field line with two gone in the bottom of the third (-2.7%). In six innings, he allowed eight hits and a walk, striking out four. After allowing the double to Miami's pitcher, the single to leadoff batter Dee Gordon (-12.0%) allowed Miami to tie the game. Teheran actually went one-for-three at the plate, but by the specific leverage of his two groundouts (-3.5%), his single to right in the top half of the seventh (+2.0%) wasn't enough to erase his negative contribution. Of course, the bottom half of the seventh was worse for him, as he allowed all three of the batters he faced to reach base. Michael Morse singled (-7.8%), Martin Prado singled (-11.6%), and Marcell Ozuna singled (-14.8%), and for a moment, those of us in Marlins Land were flush with expectation.

Adeiny Hechavarria (MIA) -.216

Hechavarria grounded out to third for the second out of the third inning (-1.8%), then grounded into a 6-4-3 double play to end the fifth (-6.7%). He completed his unfortunate night at the plate with a foul out to first to end Miami's seventh inning threat (-13.1%).

Jarrod Saltalamacchia (MIA) -.385

Salty struck out swinging to open the third inning (-2.7%), struck out looking for the second out of the fifth with a runner on first (-4.4%), then earned 31.5% of the loss on his double play groundout in the seventh inning.

Ichthyomancy

Miami Skye earned two points with an attendance guess of 36,742 (it was 36,989, for a difference of 247).

Nobody earned any points on the score prediction, because everyone picked the Marlins to win (including me).

dcfish, SuperRadz, Ncchief, d.o.g.o.b.g.y.n., Gatorfan4life, and Bdwatson each earned a point by prediction that Julio Teheran would be one of the three zeroes. Bdwatson went a step further in identifying Ozuna as a hero.

MiamiSkye and Zag also earned a point by predicting that Salty would earn one of the zeroes.

Marlon D correctly called Hechevarria a zero.

I correctly called a quality start for Henderson Alvarez, but only for a single point.

Ichthy Standings

Miami Skye	3
Bdwatson	2
dcfish	1
SuperRadz	1
ncchief	1
d.o.g.o.b.y.g.n.	1
Gatorfan4life	1
zag	1
Marlon D	1
Kevin Kraczkowski	1