Heroes And Zeroes: Marlins 4, Mets 3

Heroes and Zeroes is a series of articles which focus on the players who had the most impact at the plate and on the mound. I used the Wins Probability Added (WPA) chart at www.fangraphs.com to help sort out the details.

Heroes

Michael Morse (MIA) .261

Morse, batting fifth, struck out swinging for the second out of the second inning (-1.6%), and followed that by reaching first (and second) base on an error by Mets third baseman Eric Campbell. (+8.5%) to lead off the fifth. He flew out to left with runners on first and second with one out and a 1-0 lead in the sixth (-3.7%), and made his biggest contribution in the eighth, with an RBI single with one out and two on (+22.8%) for a 4-3 Marlins lead.

Curtis Granderson (NYM) .183

Granderson struck out looking to open the ballgame (-2.2%) and hit a two-out double to right in the third (+2.5%). He flew out to left to close the fifth (-1.4%) and singled to right with one out and runners on first and second in the seventh (+7.8%). His biggest contribution to possible victory came when he led off the ninth with a walk (+11.5), but was ultimately stranded as Steve Cishek finished off Juan Lagares (flyout), Lucas Duda (K), and Eric Campbell (groundout).

David Phelps (MIA) .161

Phelps pitched a quality start for the Marlins, reaching six innings and allowing two runs (both earned). He didn't walk anybody and allowed seven hits, striking out four Mets. He also went 0-for-2 with a strikeout in his plate appearances.

Almost Heroes

Daniel Murphy (NYM) .158

Steve Cishek (MIA) .151

Dee Gordon (MIA) .133

Juan Lagares (NYM) .131

Mike Dunn (MIA) .122

Bryan Morris (MIA) .101

Marcell Ozuna (MIA) .089

Alex Torres (NYM) .084

Anthony Recker (NYM) .058

JT Realmuto (MIA) .023

Minimal Impact

Martin Prado (MIA) -.011

Almost Zeroes

Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) -.021

Jeff Baker (MIA) -.027

Adeiny Hechavarria (MIA) -.044

Buddy Carlyle (NYM) -.049

Rafael Montero (NYM) -.055

Wilmer Flores (NYM) -.065

Kirk Niewenhuis (NYM) -.086

Michael Cuddyer (NYM) -.088

Ichiro Suzuki (MIA) -.105

Eric Campbell (NYM) -.167

Lucas Duda (NYM) -.177

Zeroes

Ruben Tejada (NYM) -.180

Tejada, batting sixth, grounded out 1-3 for the second out of the second inning (-1.6%). He reached base with two out and a man on first in the fourth on Giancarlo Stanton's error in right field (+3.3%) and struck out swinging with two on to close the sixth (-6.4%), with the score still tied, 0-0. He attempted to move Daniel Murphy to third base with nobody out in the eighth on a bunt attempt, but reached safely as Murphy was tagged out (-13.3%).

Carlos Torres (NYM) -.248

Torres pitched the eighth inning for the Mets. Entering with the score tied at three, he allowed a walk to Martin Prado (-6.5%), induced Stanton to foul out (+6.3%), walked Marcell Ozuna (-6.3%), and gave up the eventual game-winning hit to Michael Morse (-22.8%), which allowed Prado to score. After that, he got JT Realmuto to fly out (+2.2%) and Ichiro Suzuki to ground out (+2.3%).

AJ Ramos (MIA) -.333

Ramos faced three batters for the Marlins in the seventh inning, after David Phelps allowed Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Anthony Recker to start out the frame with consecutive singles. He started out well, getting Wilmer Flores to line out to second (+6.5%) before allowing Curtis Granderson to single the bases loaded (-7.8%) and Juan Lagares a bases-clearing double (-32.0%), which made a three run lead into a 3-3 tie. He was then lifted in favor of Mike Dunn.

Last 10 Games

Jarred Cosart	0.788
Dee Gordon	0.668
Adieny Hechavarria	0.658
David Phelps	0.318
Martin Prado	0.269
Bryan Morris	0.233
Justin Bour	0.175
Marcell Ozuna	0.128
Reid Brignac	0.086
Sam Dyson	0.033
Mike Morse	0.024
Brad Hand	0.007
Mat Latos	0.006
Nick Masset	0.002
Jeff Baker	-0.002
AJ Ramos	-0.013
Giancarlo Stanton	-0.023
Mike Dunn	-0.043
Tom Koehler	-0.075
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	-0.091
Jose Urena	-0.106
Donovan Solano	-0.208
JT Realmuto	-0.233
Ichiro Suzuki	-0.293
Christian Yelich	-0.299
Steve Cishek	-0.449
Dan Haren	-0.543

Ichthyomancy

Attendance: 17,255

tomwolf2008 won the attendance with a guess of 17,416, just 161 off the actual figure for two points.

thenumber95 got two points by predicting a one-run Marlins win.

Thomas Bennett predicted the winner, a Phelps Hero and a Tejada Zero for three.

Jeremy Hulme picked the winner and a Phelps Hero for two.

Jigokusabre picked the winner and narrowly missed a two point prop bet by saying the Fish would bat around (they brought eight to the plate in the sixth).

sternma picked the winner for one point.

Marlon D gets a point for the winner and a point for saying that Phelps would pitch six innings. He also predicted that Phelps would get less than five walks, but wasn't awarded a multiplier because that's almost a gimme.

MiamiSkye got the winner, said the game would last between 2:33 and 2:53 (it was 2:46), and nearly took a three point parlay (starters combine for 12+ IP, total game runs 7+, and gametime 2:43+, he missed by a third of an inning). He also got smart and picked Phelps as both a hero and a zero, getting a point for it.

gustavopim called a one-run win for two points.

dcfish called the winner and a Phelps Hero for two.

Ichthyomancy Standings

gustavopim	48.5
Kevin Kraczkowski	39.5
Jigokusabre	38.5
dcfish	37
Miami Skye	38.5
Bdwatson	24
Marlon D	21
tomwolf2008	19
Gatorfan4life	16.5
Thomas Bennett	14
thenumber95	11
Jeremy Hulme	9
zag	3
Alex Carver	3
Delusional Marlins Fan	2
rsanchez1	2
sternma	3
Al-Kendall	2
DavidJacobs	2
SuperRadz	1
ncchief	1
d.o.g.o.b.y.g.n.	1
nfries7	1

The Marlins are now 6-4 in their last 10 games, and look to move a little closer to the .500 mark tonight in the rubber game against these same Mets at 7:10PM. Get your picks in, here or in the GameThread.